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<copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
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<title>Ryanair&apos;s CEO Promises In-Flight Blow Jobs</title>
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<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:50:39 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Looking at the Bear</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The S&P 500 closed today at 1,261.52 which is the lowest close since July 24, 2006. The index is now off 19.4% from its all-time high of October 9, 2007.</p>

<p>Since October 9, there have been 184 trading days. This is how the days of the week have panned out:</p>

<p>Monday.............-3.69% (35 data points)<br />
Tuesday.............5.26% (36)<br />
Wednesday.......-6.17% (39)<br />
Thursday...........-1.93% (37)<br />
Friday................-13.59% (37)</p>

<p>So the bear market is heavily, but not exclusively, a Friday phenomenon. The other four days of the week have lost a combined -6.72%.</p>

<p>The most surprising fact is that of the 184 days, 92 have been up, 91 were down and one was unchanged (January 3).</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/looking_at_the_5.html</link>
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<category></category>
<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jul 2008 07:56:24 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Best Little Whorehouse in Wellesley</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Professor Greg Mankiw notes that in his hometown of Wellesley police recently <a href="http://www.wickedlocal.com/wellesley/news/x223000207/Wellesley-police-shut-down-second-massage-business-in-town">shut down</a> a (ahem) massage business. This is the second time in the last six months that the police of busted such an enterprise.</p>

<p>But here’s the interesting fact. One of the people just arrested, William Eastwick, is the same guy who tipped off the police on the first arrest. </p>

<blockquote>Eastwick tipped Wellesley Police off to that operation, said [Wellesley Police Sgt. Marie] Cleary, although it is unclear why he did that. </blockquote>

<p>Clearly, Cleary is unclear, but to Dr. Mankiw, <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/07/machiavellian-entrepreneurs.html">it’s perfectly clear</a>.</p>

<blockquote>Like any businessman, Mr Eastwick prefers to have fewer competitors. Some businessmen lobby Congress for trade restrictions. Others alert the police to the brothel down the block. And when using the power of the state to thwart competition, they can both pretend to be acting in the public interest. </blockquote>

<p>Sometime you need a small example to see the big picture. I wouldn’t say the state and Mr. Eastwick are in bed together, they just provide similar services. <br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/best_little_who.html</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:47:07 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>CircuitBuster Now Officially Busted</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A three-act play:</p>

<p>April 14<br />
<a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9918021-7.html">Blockbuster offers $1 billion for Circuit City</a></p>

<p>May 10<br />
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/business/10circuit.html?_r=1&oref=slogin">Circuit City Opens Its Books to Blockbuster</a></p>

<p>July 2<br />
<a href="http://www.abcnews.go.com/Technology/PCWorld/story?id=5289160">Blockbuster Withdraws Offer for Circuit City</a></p>

<p>This was one the worst ideas to hit the Street in a long time. The good thing is that shareholders had far better judgment than management. Score one for the wisdom of crowds.<br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/circuitbuster_n.html</link>
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<category></category>
<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:14:43 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Samuel Israel Surrenders</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><img alt="21_samissle_lgl.jpg" src="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/21_samissle_lgl.jpg" width="250" height="375" /></p>

<p>Sam finally <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahEpEF8oOaYU&refer=home">gives up</a>:</p>

<blockquote>Samuel Israel, the fugitive hedge-fund firm founder convicted of directing a $400 million fraud at Bayou Group LLC, surrendered in Massachusetts, almost a month after fleeing instead of starting his 20-year prison sentence.

<p>Israel, 48, turned himself in at 9:15 a.m. today, according to Sue Anderson, assistant to Southwick, Massachusetts, Police Chief Mark Krynicki. Southwick, near the Connecticut border, is about 117 miles from where Israel disappeared in New York the day he was to report to a federal prison northwest of Boston.</p>

<p>"He is in federal custody," Rebekah Carmichael, a spokeswoman for U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia in Manhattan, said in an e-mailed statement.</p>

<p>Israel pleaded guilty in 2005 to securities fraud. His car was found June 9 on a bridge north of New York City with the message "suicide is painless" written in the dust on its windshield. Within a week, state and federal authorities in New York, where he pleaded guilty, ruled out suicide and launched an international manhunt. </blockquote></p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/samuel_israel_s.html</link>
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<category></category>
<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:53:40 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>UnitedHealth Lowers Guidance</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>As I <a href="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/unh_under_27.html">expected</a>, <b>UnitedHealth</b> (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=unh">UNH</a>) lowered its profit guidance for this year. The company now sees EPS coming in <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121499485991822623.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo">between $2.95 to $3.05</a>.</p>

<blockquote>Chief Executive Stephen J. Hemsley noted the quarter's results were hurt by lower margins, adding that second-quarter weakness also stems from reduced margins at its risk-based businesses and Medicare operations. "We are continuing to take the aggressive specific steps necessary to improve our operating performance, as well as to better position our organization for sustained future growth," he said. To stop weakness in the risk-based operations, the company has been letting go of some customers who didn't generate enough profits.</blockquote>

<p>The company is also paying about $900 million to settle two class-action lawsuits regarding the back-dating of stock options. Assuming the current forecast is correct, then UNH is a very cheap stock. The shares are up nicely today.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/unitedhealth_lo.html</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:49:08 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>This Just In...</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><b><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2008/2008-001.pdf">Multivariate Markov Switching With Weighted Regime Determination: Giving France More Weight than Finland</a></b></p>

<p>Um...<i>no duh</i>!</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/this_just_in_4.html</link>
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<category></category>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:18:57 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Worst First Halves Since 1971</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Here are the ten worst first halves since 1971, going by the S&P 500's total return:</p>

<p><b>Year</b>.....................<b>Gain</b><br />
2002..................-13.16%<br />
2008..................-11.91%<br />
1973..................-10.38%<br />
1974..................-10.17%<br />
1982..................-7.83%<br />
2001..................-6.70%<br />
1984..................-4.90%<br />
1977..................-4.38%<br />
1994..................-3.39%<br />
1981..................-0.95%<br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/worst_first_hal.html</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 15:05:18 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Grasso Wins</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>It’s hard to see multi-millionaire as victims, but Eliot Spitzer’s (aka Client #9) crusade against Dick Grasso was contemptible and an abuse of the legal system. The case against him was <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=anpDOZtsUVLA&refer=us">thrown out</a> today. Last week, the court threw out four of the six claims against Grasso. The other two were dismissed today.</p>

<p>The New York Stock Exchange awarded Grasso a pay package worth $190 million. Is that too high? Probably. Is it illegal? Of course not.</p>

<blockquote>“My reaction is, I told you so,” Langone said today in a telephone interview. “There was never a case here. What more can we say? The enormous waste was a travesty.” </blockquote> 

<p>One final note on Mr. Spitzer. When he checked in the Mayflower Hotel for his meetings with Ms. Dupree, he used the nom de bork, George Fox. That’s one his friend’s names. </p>

<p>Classy guy.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/grasso_wins.html</link>
<guid>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/grasso_wins.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:51:27 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>I Think this Chart Sums It Up Well</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><img alt="image688.png" src="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/image688.png" width="434" height="347" /></p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/i_think_this_ch.html</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:31:34 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Who&apos;s to Blame?</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Who's responsible for all the problems in the financial sector? Stephen Schwarzman has an novel idea -- <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/business/01sorkin.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1214919593-CXXV/yAaf0hl5mUicoSDZA">blame the new accounting rule</a>, FASB 157:</p>

<blockquote>FAS 157 represents the so-called fair value rule put into effect by the Federal Accounting Standards Board, the bookkeeping rule makers. It requires that certain assets held by financial companies, including tricky investments linked to mortgages and other kinds of debt, be marked to market. In other words, you have to value the assets at the price you could get for them if you sold them right now on the open market.

<p>The idea seems noble enough. The rule forces banks to mark to market, rather to some theoretical price calculated by a computer — a system often derided as “mark to make-believe.” (Occasionally, for certain types of assets, the rule allows for using a model — and yes, the potential for manipulation too.)</p>

<p>But here’s the problem: Sometimes, there is no market — not for toxic investments like collateralized debt obligations, or C.D.O.’s, filled with subprime mortgages. No one will touch this stuff. And if there is no market, FAS 157 says, a bank must mark the investment’s value down, possibly all the way to zero.</p>

<p>That partly explains why big banks had to write down countless billions in C.D.O. exposure. The losses are, at least in part, theoretical. Nonetheless, the banks, in response, are bringing down their leverage levels and running to the desert to raise additional capital, often at shareholders’ expense.</blockquote></p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/07/whos_to_blame.html</link>
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<category></category>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 09:40:54 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>The Buy List’s Mid-Year Report</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Ugh, we choked at the last minute! Going into today, the <a href="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist.html">Crossing Wall Street Buy List</a> had a comfortable lead over the S&P 500. But today, we collapsed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.13%, but our <a href="http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist.html">Buy List</a> lost (yuck!) -1.49%. </p>

<p>Today was the worst relative performance for us all year.</p>

<p>For the year, the S&P 500 is off by -12.83% while our Buy List is now down -13.47%.  The Buy List’s daily volatility is 6.27% greater than the S&P 500.</p>

<p>Including dividends, the Buy List is down -13.16% while the S&P 500 is down by -11.91%. Roughly, that translates to an annual dividend yield of 2.12% for the S&P 500 and 0.72% for us.</p>

<p>If you recall, the rules of the Buy List let me select 20 stocks at the beginning of the year and I'm not allowed to make any changes throughout the year. Right now, just three of our 20 stocks are in the black. The biggest loser by far is <b>Unitedhealth Group</b> (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=unh">UNH</a>), which is down by nearly 55%.</p>

<p>Here's a look at how all 20 stocks have done.</p>

<p><b>Stock</b>..........................................<b>Profit</b><br />
Medtronic....................................2.94%<br />
FactSet Research Systems..........1.18%<br />
Aflac............................................0.27%<br />
Leucadia.....................................-0.34%<br />
Amphenol...................................-3.21%<br />
Donaldson..................................-3.75%<br />
Bed Bath & Beyond.....................-4.39%<br />
Joseph A. Banks..........................-5.98%<br />
Clarcor........................................-7.56%<br />
Sysco..........................................-11.86%<br />
Danaher......................................-11.90%<br />
Stryker........................................-15.85%<br />
Fiserv..........................................-18.24%<br />
Moog...........................................-18.71%<br />
WR Berkley.................................-18.95%<br />
Lincare........................................-19.23%<br />
Harley-Davidson...........................-22.37%<br />
SEI Investments...........................-26.89%<br />
Nicholas Financial.........................-29.60%<br />
UnitedHealth.................................-54.90%</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/the_buy_lists_m.html</link>
<guid>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/the_buy_lists_m.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 21:53:52 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Let&apos;s Hear It for Round Numbers</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The Dow closed today at 11,350.01 and the S&P 500 closed at 1280.00. </p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/lets_hear_it_fo.html</link>
<guid>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/lets_hear_it_fo.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:29:36 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>The Oil Boom Comes to Beverly Hills</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>This is news to me. There are <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a5fyvudrWEoo&refer=home">oil wells in Beverly Hills</a>!</p>

<blockquote>"In the Middle East you might have 300 barrels of oil per cubic acre, but in the Los Angeles Basin you might have 4,000 barrels per cubic acre," says Mike Edwards, vice president of Denver-based Venoco Inc., which has 24 active wells in the Beverly Hills area, including one alongside Beverly Hills High School. "In terms of the land that produces oil, the basin is very rich."</blockquote>

<p>Come to think of it, I really doubt there's much <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0055662/">oil in Appalachia</a>.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/the_oil_boom_co.html</link>
<guid>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/the_oil_boom_co.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:10:31 -0500</pubDate>
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<title>Worst June Since the Depression</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Who's ready for this June to end? Count me in!</p>

<p>This looks to be the worst June for stocks in 78 years. Here are the S&P 500's total return for the 20 worst Junes since 1928:</p>

<p>Jun-30........-16.24%<br />
Jun-08........-8.55% (through Friday)<br />
Jun-62........-8.03%<br />
Jun-02........-7.12%<br />
Jun-39........-6.07%<br />
Jun-50........-5.49%<br />
Jun-69........-5.42%<br />
Jun-37........-5.04%<br />
Jun-70........-4.82%<br />
Jun-65........-4.73%<br />
Jun-91........-4.57%<br />
Jun-28........-3.85%<br />
Jun-46........-3.70%<br />
Jun-61........-2.75%<br />
Jun-94........-2.47%<br />
Jun-01........-2.43%<br />
Jun-51........-2.28%<br />
Jun-72........-2.06%<br />
Jun-63........-1.88%<br />
Jun-82........-1.74%</p>]]></description>
<link>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/worst_june_sinc.html</link>
<guid>http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/06/worst_june_sinc.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:02:15 -0500</pubDate>
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