Time to Ditch the Extra-Point?

Extra-points are getting out of hand this year. The PAT success rate is normally very high, but this year it’s reaching absurd levels. Through week 13, only 3 extra-point attempts failed out of 884 tries. That’s a success rate of 99.66%. Sheesh, that’s even higher than Ivory Soap.

Sorry, but anything that consistent isn’t a game anymore. To put it in context, the number of missed PATs is down by about 90% from 20 years ago. Remember, football is a game. That means it’s supposed to be, you know, fun to watch. Well, 99.66% ain’t fun to watch. It’s a mockery of sports. The PAT has become a useless play that could only cause injuries.

So should we just get rid of it? Nah, it’s been around forever, so let’s try modifying it.

How about moving the extra-point line back? Well, let’s look at the data. In the 20 to 29-yard range, kickers have made 203 of 206 attempts this year for a 98.54% success rate. I’m assuming that’s a median attempt of 24.5 yards, meaning the line of scrimmage is about the 7 or 8. Remarkably, that lower success rate is still higher than the league’s extra-point success rate until 15 years ago.

One idea would be to move the PAT line back to, say, the 10-yard line. Of course, that would make a two-point conversion much harder. The problem is that the 2-point conversion already can’t compete from the 2-yard line. The success rate runs at 44% which makes it inefficient compared to the 1-point try. The 2 is only used when it has to be. (Do the one- and two-point attempts have to take place at the same place? Hmmm. For simplicity’s sake, I’d say yes).

Here’s a look at the percent of missed PATs going back to 1974 when the NFL moved the goalposts to the back of the endzone. I should note that there have been some rule changes. For example, running “leaps” by the defense were banned in 1984. Cool to watch but probably a bit dangerous.

The rule change I’d support wouldn’t be to move the extra-point line back, but moving it in a little bit. Perhaps to the one-yard line, or maybe the four- or five-foot line. That would make the 2-point try more competitive while having no impact on the 1-point try. Just like in economics, it’s all about incentives.

Update: Brian Burke has more. He says to narrow the goal posts.

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 pm

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