According to Intrade, It’s a GOP Landslide

Here’s the latest look at the implied House gains for the GOP in next week’s election according to Intrade. (For a complete explanation, see this earlier post.)

The normal caveats apply — these are very illiquid markets. I based the mean and standard deviation on the 50+ gain and 60+ gain contracts.

The last trade on the 60+ seat gain contract was 53.5. Pairing that with the latest trade on the 50+ seat gain (80) translates to the GOP gaining a mean of 61.2 seats with a standard deviation of 13.3 seats.

(Note: I deleted the September 4 data point due to bad data.)

Posted by on October 27th, 2010 at 11:59 am


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