Employment and Re-Election Chances

Since 1948, ten presidents have run for re-election. Three times the unemployment rate was 7.4% or more in November of the election year. Each one of those times, the incumbent president has been defeated.

The other seven times, the jobless rate has been 7.2% or less. All seven times, those incumbent presidents have won re-election.

The March 2011 jobs report said the unemployment rate was 8.828%. If the relationship holds up, President Obama has 20 months to lower the jobless rate by 1.5%.

For the March jobless rate to be equal to the rate in November 1984 (the lowest on the chart for an incumbent victory), there would need to be 2.5 million more jobs.

Year Unemployment Rate Outcome
1976 7.835 Lose
1980 7.459 Lose
1992 7.447 Lose
1984 7.181 Win
1996 5.360 Win
2004 5.354 Win
1972 5.254 Win
1964 4.845 Win
1956 4.292 Win
1948 3.764 Win

Interestingly, when an incumbent president hasn’t been on the ticket, the jobless rate hasn’t had much of an impact on which party wins.

Posted by on April 11th, 2011 at 7:50 am


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