Rough Patch of the Election Cycle

We’re currently in an historic rough patch of the presidential election cycle. From September 6th of the pre-election year until May 28th of the election year, the Dow has lost an average of 5.2%.

Historically, the Dow has gained an average of 24.1% from September 30th of the mid-term election year to September 6th of the pre-election year. This means that nearly two-thirds of the Dow’s four-year gain (24.1% of 36.7%) comes in less than one-quarter of the time. That’s a pretty stunning stat.

After September 6th of the pre-election year till May 29th of the election year, the Dow has historically pulled back 5.2%. After that, it puts on a nice 23.2% climb to August 3rd of the post-election year. Then trouble starts. After August 3rd, the Dow pulls back 5.6% and we’re back at our starting point, September 30th of the mid-term election year.

Posted by on October 4th, 2011 at 3:09 pm


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