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Morning News: November 20, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 20th, 2024 at 7:08 amCOP29 Summit Enters Final Stretch With Nations Far Apart on Finance
The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
Asia’s Dark Fleet Hub Highlights Trump’s Oil Sanctions Headache
Trump’s Treasury Search Gains Steam With Fresh Round of Meetings
How Howard Lutnick Could Shake Up Global Trade
Trump’s Cabinet Blitz Is Straight From Orban’s Playbook
Trump and the Triumph of America’s New Elite
Wall Street Is Too Pumped About Trump to Worry About His Policies
American Companies Are Stocking Up to Get Ahead of Trump’s China Tariffs
VCs Look to Secondary Share Sales as The New Exit While M&A Falters
Senator Warren Urges Fed to Keep Wells Fargo Asset Cap
Archegos’ Bill Hwang to Be Sentenced for Massive US Fraud
Why Some Tax Cuts Can Be Better Than Others
To Get the Housing Market Moving, Raise Property Taxes
Miami Condo King Extends Bet on Wealth Boom Spreading up Florida Coast
Resentment is Building as More Workers Feel Stuck
Nvidia Traders Brace for Potential $300 Billion Earnings Move
How Google Spent 15 Years Creating a Culture of Concealment
Iger’s Hero Act Could Leave His Successor Playing the Fool
Comcast to Spin Off Cable Networks, Including MSNBC and CNBC
The Onion’s Bid to Acquire Infowars Has Gotten Messy
Traffic on Bluesky, an X Competitor, Is Up 500% Since the Election. How Will It Handle the Surge?
Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook
U.S. Military Selects Little-Known Utah Supplier for Drone Program
Hennessy Workers Strike Over Plans to Bottle Cognac in China
The Unusual Power of VW’s Union Boss Is Being Put to the Test
NIO’s Net Loss Widens on Lower Revenue Amid EV Pricing Pressure
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Morning News: November 19, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 19th, 2024 at 7:07 amOil Glut Set to Thwart Trump’s Call to ‘Frack, Frack, Frack’
German Defense Chief Sees Baltic Cable Breaches as Sabotage
Why US Will Let Ukraine Strike Inside Russia With American Missiles
Gold Is at the Mercy of Trump, China and King Dollar
Things Are Quiet in Consumer Credit. Too Quiet.
Trump’s Impossible Task: Delivering for the Working Class and Billionaires
Rethinking the Worst-Case Fears About Trump Tariffs
Wall Street’s Top Cop Plans to Exit Before Trump Takes Power
Five Ways R.F.K. Jr. Could Undermine Lifesaving Childhood Vaccines
RFK Jr. Would Put the Economy at Risk, Too
Companies With Immigrant Workforces Are Preparing for Raids
While You Were Voting, Corporate America Made Bank
Goldman Sachs Chairman Expects Deals to Pick Up in 2025
Morgan Stanley Courts Employees of Near-IPO Companies for Wealth Management
China’s Chip Advances Stall as US Curbs Hit Huawei AI Product
When IR Met AI: How the Technology Is Shaping Earnings-Day Prep
Nvidia’s Options Primed for $300-Billion Price Swing After Earnings
Google’s Anthropic AI Deal Cleared by UK Antitrust Agency
DOJ Will Push Google to Sell Chrome to Break Search Monopoly
Amcor to Acquire Berry Global in $8.4 Billion Packaging Deal
The Future of Abortion Rights Could Be Decided by Accident
Lowe’s Lifts Sales Forecast on Improving Housing Spend
Robots Struggle to Match Warehouse Workers on ‘Really Hard’ Jobs
Walmart Raises Outlook on Strong Spending From Value-Seekers
Shoppers Are Ditching Classic Brands They Once Loved
Blackstone Strikes Deal for Jersey Mike’s Subs
Swiss Watch Exports Fall Again Amid Plummeting Demand in China
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Morning News: November 18, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 18th, 2024 at 7:04 amWhy Oil Companies Are Walking Back From Green Energy
Why Big Oil Doesn’t Mind Big Regulation
A Global Fund for Climate Disasters Is Taking Shape in Trump’s Shadow
Turkmenistan’s Gas Company Will Enlist Experts to Combat Methane Leaks
For Decades, Installing E.V. Chargers Didn’t Pay Off for Retailers. Now It Does.
Indian Students Rush to US Colleges, Driving Attendance Record
Moody’s Cuts Bangladesh Further Into Junk on Political Risks
Greek Banks Looking at Deals Abroad After Painful Restructurings
Eurozone Trade Surplus Rises on Jump in Exports to U.S.
Powell May Be Waiting Until 2026 for Housing Inflation to Cool
Trump Treasury Cabinet Pick in Flux as Jockeying Slows Selection
Trump Picks Brendan Carr to Lead F.C.C.
Four Priorities for Trump’s Top Telecom Regulator
Crypto Prediction Markets Have a Cloudy Future
HSBC Managers Are Competing to Keep Their Jobs in CEO’s Revamp
Bain Capital Raises $5.7 Billion for Global Special Situations
Wall Street Bankers Spot a Fat Payday in $1 Trillion AI Hysteria
Manufacturing Was Set to Rebound. Then Trump Happened.
Tim Berners-Lee Wants the Internet Back
Xiaomi Profit Beats on Robust Sales Across Segments
Why Tech Billionaires Love the Author of Jurassic Park
Ben & Jerry’s Vs. Unilever Is the End of Corporate Do-Gooderism
Spirit Air Files Bankruptcy Following Failed JetBlue Tie-Up
Auto Industry Braces for Whiplash as Trump Takes Power
Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy in China With Prices Well Below US
Substack’s Great, Big, Messy Political Experiment
Paramount Takes Promotional Stunt to New Level for ‘Gladiator II’
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Morning News: November 15, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 15th, 2024 at 7:03 amRussia Envoy Backs Paris Climate Deal, Hopes Trump Will Too
Oil Set for Weekly Loss Amid Demand Worries, Rate-Cut Slowdown Prospects
World Fears a Wider Trade War. Malaysia Sees an Opportunity.
China Stimulus Boosts Domestic Consumption as Trump Tariffs Loom
Eurozone Economy to Grow Less Strongly as Trade Spat Brews, EU Says
Trump US Election Win Comes With a Catch for Israel’s Far-Right
America’s Homes Are Piggy Banks That Few People Can Afford to Raid
CEOs Brace for the Chaos of Another Four Years of Trump
Boston Fed President Says December Rate Cut Isn’t a ‘Done Deal’
‘Flood of Money’ Chases US Banking’s Hottest New Trade
Traders Chase Post-Election Stock Gains in US Options Market
Investors Circle the Trump Trade’s Global Market Victims
Betting on Tesla Helped Ron Baron Beat the Index. Now He’s Getting a Trump Bump
Pay Close Attention to Your Credit Card Balance Under Trump 2.0
Musk’s New Job For Trump Already Exists
How Musk’s DOGE Can Actually Do Some Good
Trump’s Anti-Regulation Pitch Is Exactly What the AI Industry Wants to Hear
Musk Escalates Altman Legal Feud, Casting OpenAI as Monopolist
Super Micro’s Looming Nasdaq Deadline Stokes Delisting Fears
Biden Cements TSMC Grant Before Trump Takes Over
Hokkaido Electric Sees Power Demand Surge With Data Center Boom
Disney Targets $1 Billion in Streaming Profit in New Fiscal Year
DoorDash Wants to Give You a Ride and a TV Show With Dinner
Startups Turn to Ponds to Find the Next Climate-Fighting Superfood
The Onion Wins Bid to Buy Infowars, Alex Jones’s Site, Out of Bankruptcy
Returns Are a Headache. More Retailers Are Saying, Just ‘Keep It.’
Human in Bear Suit Was Used to Defraud Insurance Companies, Officials Say
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Morning News: November 14, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 14th, 2024 at 7:03 amEuro Likely to Fall Further on ECB-Fed Divergence
Why the Dollar Keeps Getting Stronger
Dollar’s Enduring Appeal on Show in China’s Sovereign Bond Sale
Lula’s Embrace of Xi Sets Up a Clash Over Trump’s China Policy
Global Oil Market Faces a Million-Barrel Glut Next Year, the IEA Says
EIB to Unveil €500 Million in Bank Guarantees for Clean Tech
Trump Threatens ESG Investing That Thrived in His First Term
Kugler Says Fed Must Focus on Both Inflation and Jobs Goals
Inflation Needs Subtlety Right Now. It’s Getting Trump
Wall Street Bankers Temper Optimism A Week After Trump Victory
Crypto Industry Pushes for Policy Sea Change After Trump Victory
What Can Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency Actually Do?
Private Equity Finds Yet Another Way to Keep the Money Coming In
Brookfield Corp. Profit Climbs as Wealth Unit Boosts Results
CEOs Think Silence Will Save Them From Trump. They’re Wrong.
What Would a Matt Gaetz Justice Department Mean for Business?
Meta’s Week of Setbacks Suggests Tough Times Ahead
Homeland Security Department to Release New A.I. Guidance
Siemens Profit Tops Forecasts as Data-Center Demand Offsets Automation Woes
Disney Profit Beats Expectations as Movies, Streaming Gain
Disney Paints a Rosy Picture for Coming Years
The Fight for 7-Eleven Isn’t Just About Money
Capri, Tapestry Scrap Merger After FTC Wins Blocking Order
Arnault Son Climbs LVMH’s Top Ranks in Further Leadership Reshuffle
JD.com Profit, Revenue Rise as Consumer Sentiment Improves
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Morning News: November 13, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 13th, 2024 at 7:05 amCountries Are Pledging Money They Don’t Control at COP29
Microsoft and Royal Bank of Canada Bet on New Approach to Carbon Cleanup
North Dakota Wants Your Carbon, But Not Your Climate Science
Copper Smelters Battered by Tight Supply and Weakening Demand
RWE Plans $1.6 Billion Buyback Due to Expected U.S., Europe Project Delays
Pro-Government Economists Blame Central Bank for Plunging Russia Into ‘Stagflation’
Gamblers Pay 400% Loan Rates to Fund Betting Frenzy in Brazil
Trump’s Contempt Is China’s Gain in Latin America
Trump Picks Musk, Ramaswamy for Government Efficiency Effort
Mr. Musk Goes to Washington — With a $2 Trillion Agenda
Powell Says US Inflation Views Are Anchored — Are They?
Fed’s Waller Says Central Bank Should Limit Its Role in Payment Systems
Republicans See a Better Economic Outlook. Now It’s Democrats Who Don’t.
Crypto Industry Lobbies Trump and His Allies to Capitalize on Election Wins
US CPI to Show Another Firm Reading, Leaving Fed Path Up in Air
Citadel Warns Recruiters: Don’t Pitch Fake Jobs
Klarna Readies US IPO With Valuation Recovering From Plunge
Europe’s Tech Startups Staggered by Lilium, Northvolt ‘Disaster’
Mizuho Financial Group to Buy 15% of Rakuten Card for $1 Billion
Swiggy Delivers 17% Surge in Debut as Investors Bet on Indian Quick Commerce
Tesla’s Meme-Like Stock Surge Leaves Wall Street Feeling Wary
7-Eleven Owner Considers Going Private in Japan’s Biggest $58 Billion Buyout
Spirit Air Nears Bankruptcy That Would Wipe Out Shareholders
Inside VW and Rivian’s $5.8 Billion Bet to Rescue Each Other
Sports League Platform Volo to Grow Via M&A With Bluestone Stake
The Streaming Wars Didn’t Kill the Little Guys. In Fact, They’re Thriving.
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CWS Market Review – November 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2024 at 6:20 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
On Monday, the stock market rallied to another new high. This was the S&P 500’s first ever close above 6,000 and it was the index’s 51st record high this year. The S&P 500 closed a bit lower today which snapped a five-day winning streak. Over those five days, the index gained a little over 5%.
For some context, the S&P 500 first closed above 600 on November 17, 1995. The index first closed above 60 on July 7, 1959.
We can even go back to a few days in 1932 when the S&P 500 closed below 6, but there’s a footnote attached to that stat. That would be the last time the index closed below 6, but we can’t say when the first time was because that day preceded the lifespan of the S&P 500. Still, a 1,000-fold gain in 92 years is impressive.
The Trump Trade Takes Over Wall Street
We now know what the “Trump Trade” is, but it may not last long. The Trump Trade is the market rewarding cyclicals, especially domestic manufacturers. That tends to skew towards small-cap stocks and the little guys have been very popular in recent days. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is already up more than 10% this month.
The bond market reacted swiftly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 16 basis points to close at 4.42%, although the yield has backed down after the past few days.
I’ve been impressed by how some cyclical stocks have responded. That often happens at the same time long-term bond yields rise. For example, the S&P 500 Industrials ETF (XLI) has performed well. Financial stocks have also done well. The S&P 500 Financials ETF (XLF) rallied more than 6% on Wednesday and continued to go higher after that.
A good example of rallying financials comes from our Buy List. On Tuesday, shares of Farmer Mac (AGM) rallied more than 6% thanks to a good earnings report. Then on Wednesday, the day after the election, Farmer Mac ran up another 10%. The shares reached their highest point since this summer. The stock had been cheap for a long time, but the market seemed to only realize it all at once.
How about the rally in Bitcoin? President-Elect Trump promised to be a crypto-friendly president. He even talked about having a bitcoin strategic reserve. On election day, Bitcoin rose 9%, and it gained another 10% over the weekend.
Bitcoin is getting very close to $90,000. Two years ago, it was at $17,000. So far this month, Bitcoin has gained 28%, and November isn’t even half over.
By the way, in September, former NBA great Scottie Pippen made a deadly accurate prediction about the price of Bitcoin.
Satoshi Nakamoto visited me in my dream last night and predicted that #Bitcoin would be at $84,650 on November 5, 2024. Not financial advice.
— Scottie Pippen (@ScottiePippen) September 3, 2024
If you feel that you need to invest in Bitcoin, I’ll simply add that Bitcoin has had several major pullbacks in its short history.
Wall Street Braces for Tomorrow’s CPI Report
Now that Wall Street is past the election, the next big test for the market comes tomorrow morning when the October CPI report is released.
I’ll be honest, this report has some folks scared. The inflation data has mostly been getting better, but a bad report could unravel a lot of market narratives.
For September, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.18%. That almost matched the 0.15% increase we had in July, and the 0.19% increase we had in August. The last five reports have all come in less than 0.2%.
For September, the 12-month rate reached 2.4% which was more than expected. Still, that’s a lot better than March when the 12-month rate hit 3.5%, and it’s far better than the peak of 9.1% reached in June 2022. Inflation has been improving, but it’s happened slowly.
The “core rate,” which excludes food and energy prices, hasn’t fared as well. For September, core inflation increased by 0.3%. That was the highest since March. In September, the 12-month core rate reached 3.3%.
The Fed meets again in five weeks, and there appears to be some doubt whether the Fed will cut rates again. Futures traders currently think there’s a 55% chance that the Fed will cut and a 45% chance that they’ll hold steady.
I suspect that a cut is probably coming next month but the number of cuts for next year may be in doubt. In September, Wall Street thought the Fed would have interest rates at 3% by this June. Now they think the Fed will be at 4% by June. I wouldn’t be surprised if we only see two more rate cuts next year.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was recently asked if he would resign if President-Elect Trump wanted him to. He gave a one word reply: “No.”
I noticed that Home Depot (HD) raised its sales guidance today. Last quarter, ending in late October, same-store sales fell 1.3%. Those beat expectations, and it was HD’s best sales performance in nearly two years. That says a lot when your best quarterly growth of the last seven quarters was still a drop.
I like to keep an eye on Home Depot’s fortunes because it’s a good barometer for the health of the home improvement sector. HD said it now expects to see comparable store sales fall by 2.5% for this year. That’s not great, but it’s better than the previous guidance for a drop of 3% to 4%.
Home Depot saw a pickup in demand for seasonal items and supplies for certain outdoor projects, some of which was related to hurricanes that have struck the US in recent months. Warm weather also helped with sales of products like grills, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said in an interview Tuesday.
Home Depot said it anticipates some hurricane-related sales during the current quarter. Generators, lumber and clean-up products typically sell well during weather events.
Home Depot’s business can be particularly sensitive to the Fed’s policies since consumers often use debt to finance their home improvement projections. HD said that sales of garden and paint products increased but lumber and plumbing came in below expectations.
Home Depot is one of the first major big box retailers to report earnings. Soon we’ll get reports from companies like Target, Walmart and Lowe’s. These companies could be looking at a strong holiday shopping season.
Shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) got a nice bump today after the food company said it beat earnings. At one point, TSN was up more than 12% in today’s trading. It was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 today.
This is interesting to see because Tyson is a good company, but the stock price had not done well. Tyson now sees its operating profit rising by 22% this year. That’s more than Wall Street had expected.
Demand for chicken, Tyson’s second-largest source of revenue, has improved as consumers look for cheaper alternatives to beef. Plunging prices for corn and soybeans also made it cheaper to feed animals, while a series of factory shutdowns and other measures boosted cost savings.
Last quarter, Tyson’s chicken business made up 70% of its sales while beef was a money loser. For its fiscal Q4, Tyson made 92 cents per share. The consensus on Wall Street had been for earnings of 69 cents per share.
Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled but TSN is down by two-thirds. Even after today’s rally, shares of TSN still yield a healthy 3.3%. Tyson’s been down so long, it’s hard for me to see this as a bargain, but with more quarters like this last one, Tyson would be a compelling buy.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: November 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2024 at 7:05 amAlibaba, JD Tout Singles’ Day Highs While China Economy Sags
Hong Kong’s Tycoons Are Selling Trophy Homes at Fire Sale Prices
South Korea State Think Tank Cuts Growth Forecasts
Gloomy Russia Billionaires See Little to Cheer in Trump’s Win
EU’s Kallas Backs Tapping Russian Assets Directly to Aid Kyiv
Europe Braces for Trump: ‘Worst Economic Nightmare Has Come True’
Europe Must Not Be ‘Unprepared’ For Trade War, ECB’s Rehn Says
A Guide to Trump’s Tariff Plans: Expect High Drama and a Bumpy Rollout
Trump’s Tariffs Could Deal a Blow to Mexico’s Car Factories
Powell Doesn’t Fear Trump. He Also Can’t Contain Him.
The Wall Street CEO Raising His Hand to Run Trump’s Economy
Bonuses Set to Grow Across Wall Street for First Time Since 2021
Bitcoin Nears $90,000 as Crypto Market Exceeds Pandemic-Era Peak
The 1928 Rally Was Just Like This One
SoftBank Back in Profit on Tech Investment Gains
Visa Teams Up with Affirm to Launch Card for Flexible Payments in US
Musk’s AI Nightmares Could Blunt Trump’s Tech Ambitions
OPEC Trims Demand Forecast for Fourth Straight Month
The World’s Best Hope to Beat Climate Change Is Vanishing
Shell Wins Appeal Against Landmark Carbon-Emissions Ruling
Exxon CEO Pushes Back on Trump’s Anti-Climate Change Agenda
Home Depot Raises Outlook as Hurricanes Spur Demand for Repairs
Tyson Forecasts Higher Earnings in 2025 on Chicken Turnaround
Shopify Surges After Third Quarter Revenue Beats Estimates
A Decade Into the Digitialization of Mobility, Winners and Losers Emerge
Airlines Hate ‘Skiplagging.’ Meet the Man Who Helps Travelers Pull It Off.
AstraZeneca Raises Outlook, Plans U.S. Investment
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Morning News: November 11, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 11th, 2024 at 7:05 amADB Increases Climate Finance After US, Japan Give World’s First Sovereign Guarantees
Trump Win Upends the Fight for Climate Cash at COP29
Trump Will Bury ESG, But It Was Already Dead
China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns
As Trump Threatens a Wider Trade War, the U.S. Confronts a Changed China
How Trump Divides Chinese Who Aspire to Democracy
Here’s What Trump’s Return Means for US Sanctions Policy
The White House Will Be Shedding Its Union Label
Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next?
Trump Expected to Narrow Treasury Chief Options by Week’s End
If Trump Tries to Fire Powell, Fed Chair Is Ready for a Legal Fight
Bond Market on Risky Path as Traders Regroup From Wild Week
Bitcoin Soars Above $82,000 as Trump Win Boosts Crypto Prospects
Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns
Hedge-Funds Hit by ‘Arbageddon’ Sense Brighter Future After Trump Win
Hedge Funds Shorting Tesla Just Lost More Than $5 Billion
Carvana Delivers Agony and Ecstasy for Hedge Funds
FTX Sues Binance, Ex-CEO Zhao Seeking $1.8 Billion Clawback
Harris Tech VC Boosters Seek the Industry Silver Lining in Her Loss
Adnoc Gas Expects Earnings Boost From Rising Gas Demand
Resolute Mining CEO, Two Other Employees Detained by Officials in Mali
Continental Posts Higher Profit as Cost Cuts Offset Sales Pressure
Talabat Eyes IPO That May Value It More Than Delivery Hero
A New Streaming Customer Emerges: the Subscription Pauser
Buying Shoes at Macy’s Isn’t Fun. Its New CEO Is Trying to Change That.
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Morning News: November 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 8th, 2024 at 7:04 amBrazil Inflation Speeds Further Above Target as Rates Go Higher
Japan Finance Minister Issues Fresh Warning After Yen’s Tumble
EU Is Looking at Ramping Up Ukraine Aid If Trump Pulls the Plug
PBOC Signals Greater Resolve on Dovish Policy, Ample Liquidity
China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump
Investors Dial Back ‘Trump Trades’ as Policy Questions Remain
Trump Is Stuck With the Fed’s Powell. Will He Make Peace?
Forget a Soft Landing. The Fed’s Biggest Challenge May Be Trump.
Powell Signals Readiness to Defy Trump in Defense of Fed
What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for Your Money
Even at a Time Like This, Slow and Steady Works in the Stock Market
US Banks to Gain from Looser Capital, Merger Policies Under Trump
The Wall Street Leaders Who Could Play a Role in Trump’s New Administration
Trump Plans to Dismantle Biden’s Climate Law. It Won’t Be Easy
Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Cuts Two Ways for Oil Companies
Why Trump Faces a Losing Tech War Against China
Big Tech’s Appetite to Resist Trump Appears Weaker This Time Around
Companies Brace for the Return of Trump’s Old Trade Gripes
Boeing CEO Says Furloughed Workers Will Be Paid for Lost Time
Tesla Begins Offering Cybertruck Leases Starting at $999 a Month
Amazon Is Looking to Revamp Its Grocery Delivery
Steven Madden C.E.O. Says It Is Moving Production Out of China
Trump’s Win Cemented It: New Media Is Leaving the Old Guard Behind
Audacious Bet on High-End Liquor Mints Indian Billionaire
Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Fall as Luxury’s China Woes Linger
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