Morning News: April 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 3rd, 2025 at 7:02 am

Trump Tariffs Aim to Bring Down Curtain on Era of Globalization

A Stunned World Reckons With Economic Fallout From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Create a New World Economic Order

China Will Face at Least 54 Percent Tariffs With Trump’s New Order

Japan Lacks a ‘Viable Option’ for Retaliating to Trump’s Tariffs

Southeast Asian Economies Brace for Critical Tariff Hit

How Might Central Banks React to Trump’s New Tariffs?

EU’s Von Der Leyen Vows Response to Trump’s 20% Tariffs

Trump’s Tariffs Pose a New Threat for Germany’s Stagnant Economy

Swiss Inflation Holds Steady as Tariffs Set to Buffet Economy

Trump Loathes VATs. Do They Really Put US Exporters at a Disadvantage?

‘It’s a Disaster’: Global Markets Slide After Trump Unveils Tariffs

US Stocks Bear the Brunt of Tariff-Induced Selloff

Tariff Worry Hits Dollar as Euro Jumps Most in Decade

Traders Bet on More Fed Cuts With 10-Year Yield Headed Toward 4%

Commodities Hit as Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Demand and Economy

How Trade Wars Impact the Green Transition — What We Know So Far

You Can NOT Be Serious!

Who, Exactly, Is Trump Liberating With Tariffs?

Tariffs Are Just Tip of the Iceberg for Panicked CEOs

Trump’s $1.6 Trillion Corporate Pledge Parade: What’s Real, What’s Not

Trump Is Promising a Manufacturing Renaissance. Is That Even Possible?

Auto Tariffs Take Effect, Putting Pressure on New Car Prices

China Says It Has Agreed to EV Tariffs Negotiations With EU

Microsoft Pulls Back on Data Centers From Chicago to Jakarta

Makers of Sporting-Goods Tumble After U.S. Tariffs on Key Manufacturers

Cayman Islands Builds $74 Billion Insurance Hub That Irks Apollo

Trump Maneuvers for a TikTok Deal While China Waits Silently Off Stage

Pinduoduo to Invest More Than $13 Billion Over Three Years to Support Merchants

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Morning News: April 2, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 2nd, 2025 at 7:05 am

Trouble with a Capital ‘T’

Trump Is Set to Unveil Expansive Global Tariffs

How ‘Liberation Day’ Might Go Down

Here’s How Former USTR Tai Will Scrutinize Trump Tariff Day

China’s Tariff-Dodging Move to Mexico Looks Doomed

A Canadian Company’s Tariff ‘Double Whammy’ Highlights Trouble for the Economy

Could Tariffs Raise $700 Billion a Year? Not Without Pain

U.S. Factory Activity Retreated in March on Tariff Concerns

An American Mine Still Has Millions of Tons of Copper, If Companies Can Get to It

Wall Street Is Rewriting Its Energy-Sector Playbook

US-Led Cooperation Beats Conflict Every Time

Investors Bet Clarity on Tariffs Will Bring Stability to Markets

Goldman Picks Yen as Top Hedge Against US Recession, Tariff Risk

Wall Street Trading Desks Warn S&P 500 Selloff Will Get Worse

Michael Bloomberg: America Is Headed for a Grim Fiscal Reckoning

Consulting Giants Offer Billions in Cuts to Federal Contracts. It Might Not Be Enough.

Inside Elite Law Firms, Protests and Quitting After Trump Deals

Visa Bids $100 Million to Replace Mastercard as Apple’s New Credit Card Partner

Tesla Sales Are Slumping, Even in the Most E.V.-Friendly Place

A Big Coal Plant Was Just Imploded to Make Way for an AI Data Center

Trump Set to Meet With Top Aides to Decide TikTok’s Fate

More Americans Can’t Afford Medical Care, Gallup Poll Finds

Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback

Ben & Jerry’s Co-Founder Calls on Unilever to ‘Set Us Free’

Chuck Todd Wants You to Meet the Pods

Tinder’s Flirting AI Chatbots Play Hard to Get

The Hottest Denim Brand of the ’00s Turns to Hip-Hop for Its Resurrection

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CWS Market Review – April 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2025 at 6:23 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Yesterday was the last day of trading for the first quarter of 2025. Overall, it was a tough quarter for the stock market. For the first three months of this year, the S&P 500 lost 4.59%.

This broke a five-quarter winning streak for the market. Going back further, the S&P 500 turned a profit in eight of the last nine quarters, not counting the first quarter of 2025.

At the very beginning, the market got off to a nice start this year. By February 19, the index was up close to 4.5% for the year. Since then, however, things fell apart.

It really has been a tale of two markets — before February 19 and after. Before 2/19, the market acted very much as it had for several months. The risky stocks were doing well, and the conservative stocks lagged behind. After February 19, the script flipped. It’s the risky areas of the market that haven’t been doing well while conservative sectors are having their moment in the sun.

Here’s a remarkable stat. Despite the overall market’s loss during Q1, 305 stocks outperformed the index, and the average stock lost 0.89%. In plain English, the big boys were finally feeling the pain. Most other stocks did just fine.

Yesterday was a very unusual trading day because the market started out very weak, but it gained strength during the trading day. At one point, the S&P 500 was trading below its close from March 13, which suggests that the market correction isn’t over.

Also during yesterday’s market. the S&P 500 traded below 5,600 and reached its lowest intra-day level in more than six months. In fact, the S&P 500 is very nearly flat for the last nine months. Think of it this way: six months of gains were wiped out in the last six weeks.

There’s an ETF I like to track, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which is probably the best proxy for the “Magnificent Seven” stocks. The MAGS ETF lost nearly 16% during Q1. Here’s a look at MAGS (in black) versus the S&P 500 (in blue).

The real difference this year is that stocks based outside the United States are finally doing well while the U.S. market is trailing. For several years, the U.S. market was beating up on everyone else. I heard many predictions that this would turn, and they were all wrong. Now they finally may be right.

One area of the market that’s been weak and doesn’t seem to be getting any better is small-caps. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks fell to its lowest point relative to the S&P 500 since 2001. Gold beat the S&P 500 by 23.6% in the first quarter.

This was a very good quarter for our Buy List, at least in a relative sense. Through the end of closing on Monday, the Buy List gained 0.89%. No, that’s not a huge gain, but it’s a lot better than the 4.59% loss for the overall market, and we did it while using a lot less risk.

Our “beta,” which is a measure of risk, was just 0.664 during Q1 which is quite conservative. Our biggest winner this year is Cencora (COR) which gained 23.8% during Q1. Other big winners were American Water (AWK, +18.5%), Abbott Labs (ABT, +17.3%) and Rollins (ROL, +16.6%).

Here’s how the ETF (in blue) has done over the past three years versus the S&P 500 (in red):

Wall Street is still very concerned by the White House’s tariff policies. Tomorrow is “Liberation Day” according to President Trump. We’re still not exactly clear on the details of President Trump’s plans for tariffs, and that’s probably why the stock market has been on edge.

The president has shown some signs of wanting to work with our economic partners in order to avoid increased tariffs. I really can’t guess what will happen. President Trump did impose some tariffs in his first term, but those were fairly small. He appears to be planning something much larger this time.

My foremost concern is how much damage there has been to the economy. So far, it’s not much, but that could soon change. There appears to be a disconnect in the economic data. The “soft” reports meanings things like surveys, consumer confidence and the stock market are alarmed. The “hard” data like jobs and GDP are holding up well.

Goldman Sachs recently raised its inflation forecast for this year to 3.5%. Goldman also cut its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1%. The bank also raised its unemployment target for this year to 4.5%.

On Tuesday, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index figure. For March, the ISM was 49.0. Any number below 50 signals a contraction. The ISM had been above 50 for the prior two months, but before that, it had been below 50 for 26 straight months. Generally speaking, recessions have aligned with ISM levels closer to 45. While this is a poor report, it’s not alarming.

There are a few more reports to look out for this week. Tomorrow, ADP will release its report on private payrolls. Wall Street expects a gain of 120,000. That’s not that much.

Wall Street also expects a gain of 0.3% for average hourly earnings. That’s also not that great. It’s basically in line with inflation.

On Thursday, we’ll get the initial claims report. The consensus on Wall Street is for 226,000. Then on Friday comes the March jobs report. On Wall Street, the monthly jobs report is the biggie. Economists expect a gain of 140,000 of nonfarm payrolls. If that’s right, it would be lower than three of the last four months.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2025 at 7:03 am

European Gas Price Falls as Injection Season Kicks in

Europe Faces Daunting Quest to Replenish Gas Reserves After Frigid Winter

EU Has Plan to Retaliate on U.S. Tariffs, Von der Leyen Says

China Says It Is Aiming to Coordinate Tariff Response With Japan, South Korea

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting One Chinese Factory Owner: ‘We Are Helpless’

Trump Administration Tallies Trade Barriers That Could Prompt Tariffs

Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime.

Trump Says He Settled on ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Plan, but Doesn’t Reveal It

Trump Advisers Battle Over Whether ‘Liberation Day’ Will Raise Tariffs or Lower Them

Reciprocal Tariffs? We’ve Seen This Movie Before

This Mexican Border Town Had Chaotic Trade-War Dress Rehearsal

Stocks Mark Worst Month in Years as Trump’s Tariffs Loom

New Quarter, Same Problems

US Recession Worries Raise ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investors

The Coming Recession Will Be Self-Inflicted

Goldman’s Big Bonuses for CEO, President Deemed ‘Poor Practice’ by ISS

Bill Ackman Becomes Chairman of Bremont After Lifting Stake

No Toilet Paper and No Privacy: Returning to the Office, Federal Workers Walk Into Chaos

As Trump Stokes Uncertainty, the Fed Asks Businesses Where It Hurts

Chipotle Went on a Seven-Year Quest to Find Avocados Outside of Mexico

US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments

OpenAI Finalizes $40 Billion Funding at $300 Billion Value

Hydrogen Trucking Companies Are Going Under

Ford Is as American as Apple Pie. Or Is That Honda?

What’s So Hard About Building Trains?

Nintendo Departs From Its Founding Philosophy With Switch 2

Amazon’s New Movie Strategy Starts With Theaters

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Morning News: March 31, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2025 at 7:04 am

Xi Showdown With Li Ka-shing Threatens China’s Pro-Business Push

China PMIs Show Some Signs of Economic Green Shoots Ahead of Tariffs

Why China Is Wary of a Trump-Xi Summit

The US Is Losing the Contest to Divide the World

Is This Really How American Exceptionalism Ends?

An April Pause Is an Option for the ECB, But Trump’s New Tariffs Loom

Trump’s Tariffs Mean Europe Must Take Control of Its Future, Says ECB’s Lagarde

Tariffs Keep Wall Street on Edge

Stocks Extend Losses With Deepening Tariff Fears

Tariffs on Screws Are Already Hitting Manufacturers

Smelters in Crisis Force Cutbacks at Glencore and Trafigura

Auto Stocks Fall After Trump Says He ‘Couldn’t Care Less’ About Higher Prices

Harley-Davidson Wants Payback if Europe Targets Its Bikes

South Korea’s Short-Selling Ban Has Ended. Will Global Investors Flock Back?

Hedge Funds Flee Techs Stocks Before Tariffs Take Hold, Says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Probability to 35%

Slow US Tax Collections Spark Angst About Debt Ceiling X-Date

The Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now Comes the Tariff Threat.

White House Weighs Helping Farmers as Trump Escalates Trade War

They Want More Babies. Now They Have Friends in the White House.

Musk Says DOGE Role Is Costing Him as Tesla Shares Slump

The Chinese Electric Vehicle Founder Who Wants In on Trump’s America

Huawei Posts Profit Drop But Revenue Signals Solid Comeback

The M&A Boom Wall Street Wanted Is Here, if You Know Where to Look

As Trump Squeezes the Immigrant Work Force, Employers Seek Relief

Rocket to Buy Mortgage Servicer Mr. Cooper in $9.4 Billion Deal

Yum Brands CEO David Gibbs to Retire in Early 2026

Ultra-Luxe Food Supplier Thrives on Cravings for Snow Crab and Wagyu Beef

The Army Has a Fast-Food Problem. Can a TV Chef Fix That?

Baseball’s Robot Umps Offer a Technology Tweak, Not an Upheaval, for the Game

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Morning News: March 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Xi Jinping Meets Global Business Leaders Amid Trade Tensions

Trump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of America

Europe’s Industrial Outlook Buoyed by Defense Drive

As Military Spending Soars, Demand for Spy-Proof Real Estate Booms

Trump’s Team Signal Chat Exposed US Spycraft to Adversaries

Obsessed With Greenland? You Too May Have the Wrong Map

In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.

Some European Nations Push for More Flexible 2025 Gas Storage Targets

Mining Company Seeks Trump Support to Shortcut Access to Seabed Metals

The Hunt for Critical Minerals Can’t Lead the US Astray

Nippon Steel Slumps on $7 Billion US Steel Investment Report

The Town That Went Crazy for Crypto

Value Stock Gains Need Fresh Catalyst With Earnings a Wild Card

A Missed Opportunity on VAT Haunts Trade War

U.S. Faces ‘Significant Risks’ From Debt, Analysts Say, as Trump Pursues Tax Agenda

Deal Slump Hits US High-Grade Bond Supply, Pressures Spreads

Trump’s Budget Chief Eyes Deep Cuts to ‘Woke and Weaponized’ Spending

The ‘Brocasters’ Have Listeners in a Chokehold

Trump’s Tariffs Leave Automakers With Tough, Expensive Choices

Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs

U.S. Automobile Safety Regulator to Investigate Honda Engine Restart Complaints

The New Billionaires of the AI Boom

Efforts to Weed Out Fake Users for Online Advertisers Fall Short

Deception in Paradise

Ubisoft Shares Climb After Tencent Backs Assassin’s Creed Carveout

Is Ozempic Really the Reason Americans Are Snacking Less?

Sundance Picks Its New Home: Boulder, Colorado

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Morning News: March 27, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2025 at 7:05 am

China Pauses New Deals With Li Ka-shing Family After Panama Ports Plan

Why Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Panama Ports Deal Infuriates China

Why Trump Is Obsessed With Taking Over Greenland

Trump’s Auto Tariffs, Threats on Allies Intensify Trade War

Auto Stocks Tumble as Investors Assess Hit From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump Floats More EU, Canada Tariffs If They Work Against US

The UK Is a Hostage to Fortune in a World Roiled by Trump

Trade Policy Should Return to ‘Reason,’ Says ECB’s Villeroy

What Canada’s 300% Tariff on Dairy Imports Actually Means

Trump Floats Chinese Tariff Cuts in Exchange for TikTok Deal

Tariffs Won’t Bring a Boom in American Manufacturing

Trump and Musk Share the Founder’s Mindset

Government Contracting Is an Easy But Elusive Target

Elmo and Elon Musk Are Cited as G.O.P. Lawmakers Grill PBS and NPR

Climate Talk on S&P 500 Earnings Calls Drops by Three-Quarters

Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil

This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market

Quitting Your Job Won’t Help You Get Paid More Money Right Now

UBS Declines as BofA Downgrades on Lack of Regulatory Clarity

Bankers Were Dreaming of M&A Riches Under Trump. It Hasn’t Worked Out, Yet

The Billionaire’s Town

TikTok Billionaire Zhang Becomes China’s Richest Person

Facebook Memoir Spotlights Meta’s About-Face on China

OpenAI Close to Finalizing $40 Billion SoftBank-Led Funding

Indians Spend a Trillion Hours on Their Phones, Pushing a $29.4 Billion Media Industry

FedEx Needs to Open the Lid on Its International Black Box

Next’s Shares Jump on Guidance Upgrade Against Tough Sector Backdrop

H&M Earnings Miss Forecasts on Higher Discounts and Costs

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Morning News: March 26, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 26th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Kenya Ditches Dream for Balanced Budget as Revenue Lags Target

LGBTQ Discrimination Costs East African Nations $5 Billion a Year, Study Finds

BOJ Governor Suggests Food Inflation Could Lead to Rate Hike

India Is on a Hiring Binge That Trump’s Tariffs Can’t Stop

The Art of the Deal Meets a Four-Power Axis

Years of Climate Action Demolished in Days: A Timeline

Dolphin Hunting Is Their Tradition. Rising Seas Have Made It a Lifeline.

Trump’s Tariff War Forces Allies to Choose Resistance or Surrender

Trump Weighs Imposing Copper Import Tariffs in Weeks, Not Months

U.S. Adds Export Restrictions to More Chinese Tech Firms Over Security Concerns

Why the Fed Wants to Keep More US Government Debt

US Stock Market Liquidity Drying Up as Trade War Concerns Mount

The Signal Leak Is Too Big to Sweep Under the Rug

Wall Street Bonus Pool Surges to a Record $47.5 Billion for 2024

Half of American Households Hold 97.5% of the National Wealth

Private Equity Is Coming for America’s $12 Trillion in Retirement Savings

Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress

At Paul Weiss, Panic, Poachers and a Fight for the Bottom Line

Shell Shocked: How Small Eateries Are Dealing With Record Egg Prices

Ad Forecaster Reduces Growth Prediction for 2025, Citing Poor Economic Visibility, Low Consumer Confidence

Phillips 66 Proposes New Board Members Amid Elliott Battle

French Tax Authorities Are Using AI to Clamp Down on Tax Fraud

Catastrophe Experts Tap AI to Tackle Soaring Insured Losses

With a U.S. Ban Looming, TikTok Portrays Itself as a Force for Good

Europe Rapidly Falling Behind China in Pharma, AstraZeneca CEO Warns

Dollar Tree to Sell Struggling Family Dollar for $1 Billion

‘Trump Slump’ Looms as Foreign Visitors Rethink Travel to U.S.

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CWS Market Review – March 25, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 25th, 2025 at 5:11 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Here are some stats to consider: Since 1966, the S&P 500 has had 12 bull markets and 12 bear markets. Over that time, the market has been in a bull market 80.2% of the time, and in a bear market the other 19.8% of the time.

During bull markets, the index has had an annualized average gain of 21.2% per year. In bear markets, it’s lost an average of 35.5% per year. Notice how the bear markets are short but sharp while the bulls are long and slow. That’s one of the important truths about investing.

Here’s another way of thinking about it. Imagine that instead of investing, you went to a special roulette table once a year on December 31. This roulette table, however, has some unusual rules.

At our roulette table, you have an 80% chance of making 20% on your money for the coming year, and a 20% chance of losing one-third of your money for the year.

You may not think this is a very comforting game since you have a very real chance of losing one-third of your money in any given year.

While this roulette is a product of my imagination, the payoffs are close to accurate, and, as in real investing, the key strategy is to keep playing the game because the odds are very much in your favor. That’s why so much of successful investing comes down to doing little and waiting. For some people, that’s too much to bear.

It’s easy to be reminded of this as the stock market recently had a very quick correction. The S&P 500 lost just over 10% in 16 trading days. I see plenty of folks debating whether we’re in a bear market or not, yet the market has already made back nearly half of what it lost.

This year’s bear market began five years to the date after the fantastic Covid-induced plunge of 2020. Five years ago, the market gave us a 20% surge in just three days, but 25 years ago, the market peaked on March 24, 2000. We didn’t reach another new high for 13 years.

SAIC Rallies on Earnings Beat

Two weeks ago, I told you about Science Applications International (SAIC) which is one of our Buy List stocks. I highlighted the company because the business performance has been quite good, but the stock has taken a big hit, especially since election day. I always pay attention when good stocks are taken down, especially for transient reasons.

Many investors suspected that SAIC’s contracts would be under the knife thanks to the new Department of Government Efficiency, but that’s an exaggerated threat. SAIC does so many things for the Pentagon. In fact, SAIC is ultimately a money saver for the DOD.

In September, SAIC reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.05 per share. That was a 20-cent beat. Then in December, it reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $2.61 per share. That was a 44-cent beat.

Yet the stock started to fall since election day. In November, SAIC was as high as $156 per share. Earlier this month, it dropped down to $95 per share. This is when prudent stock shoppers take notice.

We’ve been paying close attention to SAIC, and we’ve seen several reasons to keep the faith. For example, in December, SAIC’s board of directors authorized a buyback of $1.2 billion. That’s a strong show of confidence. At the end of last quarter, SAIC’s estimated backlog was approximately $22.4 billion.

SAIC had also raised its guidance. The company projected full-year earnings between $8.50 and $8.65 per share. That’s a big increase over the previous guidance range of $8.10 to $8.30 per share.

That brings us to the recent earnings report. For the year so far, SAIC has made $6.56 per share. That means the guidance implied Q4 earnings of $1.94 to $2.09 per share. Two weeks ago, I wrote, “I think there’s a good chance we’ll see an upside surprise.”

I was right.

Last Monday, SAIC said it made $2.57 per share. That’s up from $1.43 per share the year before. Quarterly revenues increased 5.8% to $1.84 billion.

For the year, SAIC made $9.13 per share. That’s up from $7.88 per share the prior year. The company had free cash flow of $499 million.

SAIC also raised guidance for the new fiscal year. The company now sees FY 2026 revenues ranging between $7.6 billion and $7.75 billion. That’s an increase of $50 million to the low end.

SAIC raised its full-year earnings guidance for the coming year to $9.10 to $9.30 per share. That’s an increase of 20 cents to both ends. On Monday after the earnings report, the stock rallied more than 7% for us. The stock closed today nearly 15% above its low from earlier this month. This is another good example of why it’s good to stand by high-quality stocks that run into a little trouble.

By the way, I talk more about our Buy List stocks like SAIC in our premium version which you can sign-up for here.

Consumer Confidence Plunges to 12-Year Low

Wall Street got an unpleasant shock this morning when a report on consumer sentiment dropped sharply. The Conference Board said its measure for future expectations fell 9.6 points to 65.2. That’s the lowest reading since late 2013. Traditionally, any reading below 80 has signaled that a recession is on its way.

The measure for current conditions fell 7.2 points to 92.9. Economists had been expecting a drop to 93.5. That was the index’s fourth monthly drop in a row.

I can’t say I’m completely surprised by this news. Just look at the stock market over the past month, and you can see that investors are clearly nervous. The report also shows that only 37.4% of respondents expect the stock market to be higher one year from today. That’s a drop of 10% in the last month. It’s also the first time that most investors are pessimistic since late 2023.

I’m a firm believer that the stock market is a driver of consumer spending (though not the only driver). Happy stocks make happy shoppers.

I looked at Polymarket today which is a site where you can bet on real world events. Bettors currently think there’s a 33% chance of a recession starting later this year. Bettors also expect growth for Q1 GDP to be about 1%. That’s not so good.

Traders think that the Fed will soon be back to cutting interest rates. The latest expectations are that the Fed will cut twice more this year, and there’s nearly a perfect 50-50 split on the need for a third rate cut.

On the plus side, today’s new homes sales report showed a modest rebound last month. The Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 1.8% to an annualized rate of 676,000. The numbers for January were revised higher as well.

Is the U.S. stock market out of its hole? That’s hard to say. The correction was swift, and we’ve already made nearly half of it back. One good item is that the stock market just barely tipped above its 200-day moving average. This is a dumb rule that has a pretty good track record. Historically, the market has done much better when it’s traded above its 200-DMA compared to when it’s below the 200-DMA. Still, I don’t think we’re in the clear just yet.

The next big test for the market will come next Friday, April 4, with the March jobs report. The labor market has shown a little weakness lately but nothing alarming. At least, not yet.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 25, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 25th, 2025 at 7:07 am

China’s Central Bank Tweaks Lending Tool in Sign of Policy Shift

China Frees Employees of U.S. Consulting Firm After 2-Year Detention

German Business Confidence Climbs After Lawmakers Unlock Spending Increase

In His Second Term, Trump Fuels a ‘Machinery’ of Misinformation

Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades

Trump’s Threat of ‘Secondary Tariffs’ Invents New Trade Weapon

Europe Should Hold Its Fire in Coming Tariff War

Potatoes, Shrimp and Teslas: Exporters Vie to Shape Trump’s Tariffs

UBS Top Strategist Sees Consumer Slowdown Hitting the S&P 500

US Consumers Slow Spending as Inflation Bites, Synchrony Says

U.S. Infrastructure Improves, but Cuts May Imperil Progress, Report Says

Trump, Big Law, and an ‘Existential Crisis’

Has the Decline of Knowledge Work Begun?

PBS and NPR Prepare for Showdown With Congress

China’s AI Push Turns Tech Titans Into National Champions

Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs

Emboldened by Trump, A.I. Companies Lobby for Fewer Rules

Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT

Shell to Increase Production, Shareholder Returns Under New Strategy

Boeing Gets Lifeline in Pentagon Deal to Build Most Expensive Jet Fighter Ever

Boeing Is Pushing to Withdraw Guilty Plea Agreement

Cathie Wood Sticks With Tesla, Predicts Stock to Hit $2,600

Tesla’s No.1 Rival Is Practically Taunting Elon Musk Now

Toyota Was Bullish on Trump. Then Came the Tariff Threats.

Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs

Mexico Should Roll Out the Asphalt Carpet for BYD

23andMe’s Bankruptcy Puts 15 Million Users’ DNA Info on Auction Block

The World’s Largest Whiskey Market Prepares for Trump Tariffs

Let Consumers Decide Whether to Eat Lab-Grown Meat

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