Morning News: July 1, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 1st, 2026 at 7:02 am

Iran War Delivers Massive Swings in Chinese Petrochemicals Trade

Trump’s White House Takes Aim at EU Emissions Law

Stephen Miran Makes a Case for Tariffs That Is Flat Out Wrong

What to Know About the State of North American Trade Talks

Why the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Is in Jeopardy

Trump Souring on USMCA Triggers Review of $2 Trillion Trade Deal

Trump Reports at Least $1.4 Billion in 2025 Crypto Earnings

In a Warning Sign, Analysis Shows Publicly Traded Credit Funds Are Unprofitable

Where to Invest $100,000 Right Now

In Elon Musk’s Success We Can See the Absurdity of the Attacks On Alan Greenspan

Citi CEO Brings Long-Troubled Bank Into Trump’s Good Graces

Judges Strike Down Trump Rule on Loan Forgiveness for Public Servants

The Wall Street Women Who Traded Finance Careers for Influencer Success

2026 Layoffs Tracker: Job Cuts Dropped 53% in June

Inside the Egg Price-Fixing Scandal That Spiked American Grocery Bills

USDA Plans to Pay Smaller Meatpackers to Keep Slaughtering Cattle

Mega-Deals Fuel Record M&A as Boards Dream Big on Takeovers

The End of SpaceX’s FOMO Trade Exposes a Deeper Problem

US Lifts Export Restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI Model

Anthropic Won a Reprieve From Washington. Is It Enough?

As Companies Race for Cheaper A.I. Options, This Start-Up Pitches a Solution

A School Where AI Is an Asset to Education, Not a Threat

ByteDance Picks Brazil for Its Largest Data Center Outside China

Small-Engine Makers Gain Big Momentum in Data Centers

Taiwan Detains Super Micro Workers in China Chip Smuggling Probe

More Americans Are Installing Home Batteries. Here’s Why

The South Korean Mine at the Center of America’s Tungsten Push

Bezos Backed $25,000 EV That Should Worry Detroit

How Western Automakers Are Losing Their Grip on the Chinese Market

Google Told to Pay Klarna Nearly $2 Billion in Shopping Spat

Kroger to Buy Food & Pharmacy Retailer Giant Eagle for $1.65 Billion

General Mills Swings to Loss, Works to Win Back ‘Challenging’ Consumers

Failed World Cup Bet Sinks Korean Media Giant’s Disney Dream

Be sure to follow me on X.

CWS Market Review – June 30, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 30th, 2026 at 6:11 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The first half of 2026 is officially on the books! So far, this has been a good year for Wall Street and the S&P 500. Even after a few dips recently, the index is up more than 9% on the year. The Dow just had its best first half in five years.

Here’s a breakdown of some YTD performance figures:

S&P 500 +9.55%
Dow Jones +8.85%
Russell 2000 +21.86
Nasdaq +12.79%
Nasdaq 100 +19.91%
Gold -7.03
Silver -16.18%
Oil 22.01%
Bitcoin -32.95%

The stock market could have more room to run. FactSet sees the S&P 500 rallying by 18.9% over the coming 12 months. Their target for the S&P 500 is 8,918.27. Personally, I admire that level of precision. They see all 11 sectors rising by double digits.

Frankly, the stock market had a little rougher time in June. At one point, the S&P 500 fell for five days in a row, and seven out of eight, but the losing streak was snapped on Monday, and the Nasdaq powered up again for a gain on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is back above its 50-day moving average.

What’s truly striking is that the Mag 7 has had a rough year so far. The group has lost a combined $2.3 trillion. All seven members are down for the year. In fact, all are down more than 10%. Tesla and Microsoft are both off more than 30% this year. Outside of the big boys, tech mostly did well during Q2. Micron is close to a double for 2026.

The story here is that Wall Street has gradually changed its outlook. It used to be focused on the level of cash flow from the Mag 7, especially free cash flow. Lately, it’s been more focused on the balance sheets as more of these companies are going to the bond market to raise cash.

What concerns me is that these companies are using these new funds to buy up companies at a frenetic pace. But are they buying companies because they complement their businesses? Or do they believe that if they don’t buy it now, someone else will soon?

How about small-cap stocks? The little guys are off to their best start in 35 years. The Russell 2000 is up more than 21% this year. Even there, AI is still part of the story. CNBC noted that chip-related companies make up 16 of the Russell 50 best performing stocks this year.

At the start of this year, Wall Street had been expecting earnings growth from the Russell 2000 of 23%. Now the forecast is up to 38%. Bank of America says that for every 0.25% hike from the Fed, that will knock 2% off this year’s earnings growth for the Russell.

If all 2,000 stocks in the Russell were merged and constituted in one stock, its market value would be in the low $3 trillions. That’s roughly in line with some of the Mag 7 names. (Of course, if all 2,000 stocks were bought out, the prices would radically change, but I meant this as a thought exercise.)

The hostilities in the Middle East continue to dominate the headline. There has been a softening in the oil market. For June, the price of oil is down about 20%. That’s good news on the inflation front, and it’s also a boost for consumer spending. Less money spent at the pump means more money spent elsewhere.

In the currency market, the Japanese yen traded at 162 to the dollar. That’s the weakest against the dollar in 40 years. That’s great for tourists, but it’s troubling to the government. In fact, the government will probably step in and start buying yen to help the currency.

Japan is starting to feel the effect of inflation. That’s something the country hasn’t had to deal with in decades. In fact, Japan has mostly dealt with falling prices.

There’s a long, sad history of finance ministers from every corner of the globe who have wasted tons of money to try prop up currencies that dearly want to go down. Reality has an odd habit of prevailing in these battles.

The yen has also been hurt by a surging dollar. That, in turn, has been aided by an increasingly hawkish tone from the Fed. There’s a decent chance we’ll get two Fed rate hikes during the second half of this year.

Frankly, there’s not a lot going on right now on Wall Street. Most of the fat cats are relaxing at their vacation homes in the Hamptons or on Martha’s Vineyard.

Earnings season isn’t far away. The unofficial kickoff for Q2 earnings season will be on Tuesday, July 14. (That’s Bastille Day. If you miss earnings, off with your head!) That’s when several of the big banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are due to report earnings. This will probably be another good earnings season, but I want to hear more guidance for the rest of this year.

This week is jobs week, but it’s a holiday-shortened week as well. We’ll get the ADP report on private payrolls tomorrow. Then on Thursday, we’ll get the June jobs report. Along with nonfarm payrolls, we’ll get the numbers for the unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

Earnings Preview for FactSet

FactSet (FDS) is our lone Buy List earnings report between now and the start of Q2 earnings season. The fiscal Q3 results are due out tomorrow morning.

The shares have had an impressive recovery from February to early June. At one point, FDS gained 44% in a little over three months.

FactSet is a member of that group of stocks that’s assumed to be done in by AI, yet it continues to be very profitable. Three months ago, it happened again. Fact Set reported very good earnings, raised guidance and the stock rallied 6% the next day.

Let’s dig into the details. For its fiscal Q2, FactSet made $4.46 per share. That was eight cents better than Wall Street’s consensus, and it was up 4.2% over last year’s Q2. FactSet’s quarterly revenue rose 7.1% to $611 million.

The big stat for FactSet is Annual Subscription Value, or ASV. This is an important measure of forward-looking annualized revenue. For Q2, the company’s organic ASV was up 6.7% to $2.449 billion.

FactSet’s net cash from operations rose 21.7% to $211.7 million, and its free-cash flow was up 23.6% to $185.7 million. One weak spot is that its operating margin fell by 230 basis points to 35.0%.

For 2026, FactSet expects organic ASV growth of 5.4% to 6.7%. The company sees annual revenues ranging between $2.45 and $2.47 billion. For earnings, FactSet expects to be between $17.25 and $17.75 per share. That’s up from its previous guidance of $16.90 to $17.60 per share.

At the end of Q2, FactSet’s client count stood at 9,101, and its user count reached 241,352. Annual ASV retention was greater than 95%. When expressed as a percentage of clients, annual retention was 91%. Employee headcount was 1.9% to 12,840.

In May, the company increased its quarterly dividend from $1.10 to $1.16 per share. This is the 27th year in a row that FactSet has increased its dividend.

Three months ago, FactSet increased its growth forecast for organic ASV and annual revenue. The company expects operating margin of 34% to 35%. As I mentioned before, FactSet increased its earnings range for this fiscal year from $16.90 to $17.60, to $17.25 to $17.75 per share. For tomorrow, Wall Street expects FactSet to report Q3 earnings of $4.45 per share. Look for an earnings beat.

That’s all for now. The stock market will be closed on Friday. The jobs report will be on Thursday morning. Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: June 30, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 30th, 2026 at 7:10 am

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Iran and U.S. Prepare for Talks

Iran Ratchets Up Talk of Controlling Hormuz Before New Talks

Yen’s Slide Puts Market on Lookout for Japan’s Next Red Line

Japan Has Spent Billions to Prop Up the Yen. Why Isn’t It Working?

Why the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Is in Jeopardy

Copper Traders Gear Up for Another Round of Tariff Turmoil

HSBC Says ‘Explosive’ Dollar Rally Is Among Biggest Pain Trades

Krugman: The Humbling of the Once Almighty Dollar

For First Time, More Central Banks Are Set to Shrink Dollar Holdings

The $39 Trillion National Debt Is a Loud Tell That the U.S. Isn’t “Printing”

Sahm: Where Is the Fed Headed?

Supreme Court Victory for Fed Still Leaves It Vulnerable to Trump

Supreme Court Expands Trump’s Power to Fire Top Regulators

AI Might Be a Great Investment, But Not for the Government

Strategy Abandons ‘Never Sell Bitcoin’ Mantra in Bid to Outlast Crypto Winter

It’s JPMorgan Versus Goldman Sachs in Capital Changes

How Trump’s Crackdown on H-1B Visas Imperils the American Dream

America Is About to Hand Its Best Founders to Its Rivals

American Democracy’s Biggest Losers: Voters in Closed-Primary States

Argentina’s Beef Export Boom to US Leaves Locals Paying More for Steak

The US Could Eliminate Cervical Cancer. What’s the Holdup?

Jon and Mindy Gray Bet on AI Science Research to Prevent Cancer

AI Leverage Is More Worrying Than Valuations, IMF’s Adrian Says

What the Saga Over Anthropic’s Mythos Tells Us About the Cyber Risks From AI

Chip Stocks’ Best Quarter Ever Is Ending With Some Wild Swings

SpaceX IPO Left Korea Broker With No Shares on Misunderstanding

The Expansive Meaning of Creating Jet Engines More Rapidly

Martin Marietta Strikes $13.5 Billion Deal for Limestone Supplier

Comcast’s Breakup Is Overdue. It Shouldn’t Rush Into a New Marriage.

The Unflappable Dealmaker Tasked With Crafting Comcast’s Next Act

Comcast’s NBCUniversal Spinoff Gives Hollywood Its Next Major Deal Target

Call Center Stocks Fall on Worry AI Makes Them ‘Uninvestible’

Vuori CEO’s First Two Startups Failed. This One Became a $5.5 Billion Brand

Be sure to follow me on X.

Morning News: June 29, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 29th, 2026 at 7:07 am

Ships Pull Back Amid Heightened Risk From Iran-U.S. Strikes

Oil Prices Rise as U.S. and Iran Discuss Deal to Suspend Attacks in Gulf

China Emerges as a Relative Winner From Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The Fed Needs to Follow the Rules. But Which One?

How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed

Sorry, But There’s Nothing Stable About Bitcoins OR Stablecoins

Borrowed Money Fueling US Stock Rally Is Getting More Expensive

Banks Get Creative and Look Further Afield As AI-Fueled Debt Soars

As JPMorgan Succession Takes Shape, Insiders Say This Time It Is for Real

Washington’s Retirement Rules Are Stuck In the Carter Era

What’s Left of the Education Department After Trump Dismantling

Private Credit Is Making Bets on Consumer Debt at a Precarious Time

The Donk-ing of a Truth Machine

We Crunched the Data: There’s a Grocery Price Emergency in America

Only the Richest High Rollers Can Win in Las Vegas

‘Southern Squeeze’ Grips US Cities Once Known for Affordability

The Electricity Grid’s Price Is a Messenger: Don’t Shoot It

Spain Built Too Much Solar. Investors Want Out

After False Starts, Weather Trading Gains Traction as Renewables Grow

Martin Marietta Strikes $13.5 Billion Deal for Limestone Supplier

Washington Shouldn’t Make a Habit of Refereeing Transportation

Venezuelans Rely on WhatsApp to Find Quake Victims in Information Void

Rocket Lab to Buy Iridium for $8 Billion in Challenge to SpaceX

Microsoft’s $570 Billion Rout Sets Up Its Worst Month Since 2000

AI Is Power-Hungry in That Other Way, Too

Samsung, SK to Spend $880 Billion to Drive Korea’s AI Lead

China Pushes All School Levels to Teach AI in Xi’s Tech Drive

We’re Only Starting to Grasp the Pitfalls of Using A.I. at Work

The Uninvited Meeting Guest Is an AI Notetaker

Comcast to Spin Off NBCUniversal and Sky, Sending Shares Soaring

Verizon, BT Merge International Units in Pivot to Home Markets

Verizon Sees Quarterly Loss of Up to $800 Million Due to BT Deal

Zepbound Craze Fuels $1.3 Billion Windfall for Religious Causes

Japan World Cup Jersey Sales Soar 29-Fold Ahead of Brazil Clash

No Doilies Here: In the Age of Airbnb, Bed-and-Breakfasts Are Coming Into Their Own

Be sure to follow me on X.

Morning News: June 26, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 26th, 2026 at 7:03 am

Traffic Flows Through Hormuz Despite Shock Ship Attack

Oil Prices Resume Decline After Ship Attack Briefly Rattles Markets

How a Jet Fuel Refinery Is Scrambling After the Iran War Oil Shock

If Politicians Care About Affordability, They Should Revisit Renewable Fuel Standard

A Landmark Trial Has Oil Bosses Accused of Complicity in War Crimes

China Gives Coal Room to Grow in New Five-Year Energy Plan

Germany Joins Push to Change EU Methane Rules on Supply Concerns

U.S. Army Will Lease Land on Bases for Critical Mineral Production

How to Solve the Housing Crisis? Everyone Has an Idea

Warsh Taps Two Veteran Fed Economists as Advisers

BOE Sees Weather as New Inflation Risk While London Sizzles

Trump’s Negotiation Style? The Art of the Non-Deal

Newsom, Billionaires Face Costly Battle as California Wealth Tax Advances

This Demographic Cliff Is Reshaping Universities. Cities Are Next

Mamdani Delivers Rent Freeze in Milestone for NYC Tenants

How Small Businesses Can Use Debt To Their Advantage

The Cult of the C-Suite Is Officially Over

The Race to Replace Jamie Dimon Is On. There’s One Big Loss

At House of Dimon, Troy Rohrbaugh Makes His Play for the Top Job

Novak Djokovic Joins General Atlantic in His Wall Street Debut

Kalshi’s Next Bet: A World Cup Deal as It Seeks More Growth

Bond Traders Stunned as Losses on SpaceX’s New Debt Keep Growing

Investors Pile On as A.I.’s Rough Summer Continues

OpenAI Leans Toward Waiting Until Next Year for I.P.O.

OpenAI Makes Its Advertising Pitch at Cannes Festival

Apple Raises Prices on Macs and iPads Amid the A.I. Boom

There’s One Clear Reason Americans Are Gloomy About A.I.

Micron Has Suddenly Become One of the World’s Most Important Stocks

Intel’s Chip Business Shows Signs of Life After Years of Struggle

The High School Pipeline to South Korea’s Chip-Making Fortunes

Polestar Barred From Future US Sales Under Chinese Tech Rules

World Cup Pits Adidas Against Nike in Fight for Football Street Cred

Be sure to follow me on X.

Morning News: June 25, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 25th, 2026 at 7:04 am

New Leadership Can Move the UK Past Brexit

Europe’s Heat Wave Is a Power-Market Pressure Test

World Trade Rose in April, a Fresh Sign of Resilience

Lesson Learned From Iran War: Reduce Reliance on Strait of Hormuz

Brent Oil Erases Wartime Gains as Hormuz Reopening Boosts Supply

Trump, Frustrated With High Gas Prices, Channels Biden’s Criticism of Big Oil

U.S. Inflation Problems Are Far From Over

US Bond Market Expects Rate Hikes the Fed May Never Deliver

Kevin Warsh Is Missing Alan Greenspan’s Point

Simpler Bank Rules Risk Creating Loopholes

Fannie, Freddie Boost Risk to Levels That Once Shook Wall Street

JPMorgan’s Lake Exits, Setting Up Fresh Race to Succeed Dimon

Will Gen Z’s Financial Trauma Make It More Cautious?

America’s Friendship Recession Has Become a Startup Opportunity

The Collateral Damage of the White House’s War on Fraud

How a Conservative Georgia Town Defeated an ICE Mega-Prison

If the Aim Is Tax Fairness, a Wealth Tax Won’t Achieve It

The Actuarial Fiction Hiding $5 Trillion In Pension Debt

The Data-Center Boom Is Sparking a Third Wave of Inflation

M.B.A. Pay Is Drifting Down—and So Is Demand for the Degree

The New Push to Ready Millions for AI Career Upheaval

Forget Work. Passive Income Is the New American Dream.

Who Will Need the State When AI Provides Universal Basic Income?

It’s Not Fair to Peggy Noonan’s People to Slow AI’s Arrival

AI Is Now Drilling for Oil, and the Profits Are Enormous

Micron’s Huge AI Windfall Is Bad News for Most of Us

Alibaba Slides to 16-Month Low After Anthropic’s AI Accusations

A $30 Billion Cancer Breakthrough Is Under Threat From Global Conflicts

Germany’s Merck to Buy Bio-Techne for $11 Billion

How Honda’s Pledge to Go All-Electric Unraveled

Winnebago Cuts Outlook Amid Declining Sales

Pizza Has Gone Cold. Domino’s Is Still Worth a Look.

LVMH Fires Back at Hermès Heir Over His Missing Fortune

Be sure to follow me on X.

Morning News: June 24, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 24th, 2026 at 7:05 am

China Boosts Whistleblower Tools to Police Mineral Exports

Latin America’s Two Oil Giants Team Up in Search for Their Next Boost

Canada’s Lobster Capital Is Trying to Become an Oil and Gas Giant Too

Europeans Are Terrified of Spending Money, and It’s Hurting the Economy

Investor Who Scored 900% Win in 2008 Crisis Has New Big Short Bet

Market Power Is Overwhelming Governments

Tech Stocks Drive ‘Unnerving’ Sell-Off in Global Markets

Why the Fed Could Loom Large Over the Midterms

The Debasement Trade Is Unraveling and Kevin Warsh Is One Big Reason

Dudley: Warsh’s Pivot Risks Confusing the Market and the Fed

Alan Greenspan Was Wrong About One Thing. It Was a Big One.

US Banks Look for New Bill of Health from Fed Stress Tests

US SEC Probes Popular Type of Private Equity Fund as It Steps Up Industry Scrutiny

U.S. World Cup Cities Are on a Counterdrone Spending Spree

Taylor Swift’s Eras Didn’t Boost Growth. World Cup Won’t Either

A Landmark Housing Bill Passed Congress. Home Builders Fear It Will Fizzle.

How to Solve the Housing Crisis? Everyone Has an Idea

A Solution to A.I.’s Growing Power Demand: Homes

As AI Companies Race for Power, Amazon and Google Have the Lead

The Anthropic Saga Shows the Worst Way to Regulate AI

Anthropic and OpenAI’s No. 1 User Might Not Be Enough

AI Debates Ignore One of Its Great Plusses: Worker Mobility

A.I. Riches Fuel Economic Divide in Asia’s Chip Powerhouses

Welcome to the Luxury City Built by Taiwan’s A.I. Boom

SK Hynix Seeks $29 Billion With US Listing to Fund AI Boom

Biotech Visionary Is Skeptical About AI’s Impact on Medical Innovation

Alibaba Sues Pentagon Over China Military Label

Agility, Maker of Humanlike Robots, to Go Public in $2.5 Billion SPAC Deal

Prologis Rebuffed in $16.6 Billion Takeover Approach for U.K.’s Segro

Rheinmetall Shares Slump After Reports That Germany Is Dropping Frigate Project

Stop the Madness, and Let Union Pacific Merge With Norfolk Southern

Will Anyone Buy This Cheap EV Truck With Hand-Crank Windows and No Radio?

Can America’s Obsession With Mahjong Save This Dying Craft?

The Money and Influence Behind America’s Very MAGA 250th Birthday Party

Another Spirit of ’76: George Washington’s Whiskey

Be sure to follow me on X.

CWS Market Review – June 23, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 23rd, 2026 at 7:47 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

In recent days, it seems as if geo-political news has completely fused with financial market news. When there’s optimism for less fighting in the Middle East, the market rallies, and (importantly), oil falls. Yet when the tensions rise, the markets fall and oil rises.

Each morning, I look at the news to see which kind of day it will be. Somehow, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has become a key trading metric.

Lately, the bears have gotten the upper hand. The market has fallen in four of the last five days, although outside some tech areas, the damage hasn’t been that bad. The S&P 500 isn’t far from a new all-time high. The index is also (for now) above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Tech stocks did especially poorly on Tuesday. The Nasdaq lost 2.21% today which was 0.77% worse than the S&P 500. The whole AI sector seems like it’s getting tired. More than 380 stocks in the S&P 500 beat the market today. That tells you how poorly the big boys fared.

The market had a similar run at the start of June where tech lagged, but that trend was quickly turned around. In Tuesday’s trading, many defensive stocks gained ground. Healthcare and Consumer Staples were the two best-performing sectors today. Those sectors have not done very well in recent months.

Micron (MU) is due to report after tomorrow’s closing bell. The earnings report will be a big deal. Micron has become one of the few stocks that nearly everyone watches. The company has experienced explosive demand for its high-bandwidth memory. The stock has become a favorite of traders. Over the last month, MU has had an average daily swing of more than 6%. The stock has had five days of more than 10%. Today, it was down over 13%.

The consensus on Wall Street is that Micron will report earnings of $20.05 per share. MU will almost certainly top that forecast, but will they do it by enough? That’s a difficult question. Three months ago, Micron beat earnings by more than 30%. Its revenues tripled last year’s Q2. The problem for Micron is that expectations are so high that it will almost be impossible to impress traders.

The Mag 7 have also lagged the market. Here’s a chart of the MAGS ETF, which is a decent proxy for the Mag 7, divided by the S&P 500 ETF. The Mag 7 have underperformed the market starting at any point over the last year.

On Monday, SpaceX (SPCX) lost one-sixth of its total value. Earlier today, SpaceX fell below $148 per share. That’s below the opening trade of $150 per share and not far from its IPO price of $135 per share.

SpaceX actually closed higher today. Given SpaceX’s volatility, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall below its IPO price sometime soon. The all-time high came one week ago when it got to $225 per share. From high to low, the stock lost nearly $700 billion in market value. Elon Musk lost $350 billion. He’s down to only $1.1 trillion

SpaceX is turning to the bond market to raise money. The company is looking to raise at least $20 billion. According to the WSJ, the bankers say a 10-year bond would cost SpaceX 165 basis points over a similarly dated Treasury.

Tomorrow we’ll get the report on new home sales. On Thursday, we’ll get the latest revision to Q1 GDP growth. The last report said that the U.S. economy grew in real annualized terms of 1.6% for the first three months of the year.

The first quarter is already some distance behind us. In late July, we’ll get our first look at Q2 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently expects Q2 GDP growth of 3%. That’s quite good.

Along with the GDP numbers, we’ll also get the latest PCE price data. This is important because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. I’m especially curious to see if any of the energy inflation has found its way into core inflation. Nearly everything you buy uses energy. At some point, that inflation will make itself known.

The two-year yield has broken out above 4.2% to its highest point in 16 months. This tells me that the market expects a rate hike from the Fed before the end of this year. However, the market isn’t expecting much else, for now—maybe one or two 0.25% hikes and that’s it.

The next big report will be the June jobs report which will be out on Thursday, July 2. The market will be closed on July 3.

Stock Focus: Mercury General (MCY)

I always get positive feedback whenever I highlight a stock that gets little institutional coverage from Wall Street. There are tons of wonderful companies out there that no one knows about. Some are too small, but many others are simply dull.

Last week, I told you about Gorman-Rupp (GRC), a little stock that has increased its dividend every year for the last 53 years in a row. Despite that, almost no analysts follow it.

This week, I want to tell you about Mercury General (MCY). Never heard of it? Don’t worry, you’re not alone.

Mercury General is an insurance company founded in 1961 by George Joseph. Until Covid, the company had a long history of steady dividend hikes. It currently had about 4,400 employees.

The stock IPO’d in 1985. In 1990, you could have picked up one share of MCY for less than $1. Today, the stock is going for $106 per share. Since October 2023, it’s up over 300%. Despite that impressive track record, only one analyst currently follows MCY. The company has a market value of $5.9 billion. It reached another new all-time high today.

George Joseph has led a truly remarkable life. He’s a perfect example of the great American success story. He’s the son of Lebanese immigrants. Joseph grew up in West Virginia where his father worked as a coalminer.

During World War II, Joseph served as a navigator on a B-17, and he flew 50 missions. After the war, he went to Harvard on the GI Bill. He finished in three years. After that, he founded Mercury General and today he’s a billionaire. I’m happy to say that George Joseph is still with us at the age of 104. Forbes says he has a net worth of $3.5 billion.

Mercury’s next earnings report is due out in early August. The stock is currently going for less than 10 times earnings. How is no one covering this?

That’s all for now. On Thursday, the government will release the latest revision for Q1 GDP growth. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: June 23, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 23rd, 2026 at 7:06 am

Trump Must Condition Iran Aid to Economic Freedom

U.S. Oil Is Skipping the Chance to Grab Market Share From the Gulf

America’s Thirst for Gasoline May Not Recover After Iran War

Iran’s Race to Secure New Oil Buyers Won’t Be Easy

JPMorgan Says Extreme Heat Is Altering Energy Demand Patterns

China Links Offshore, Onshore Yuan in Tweak Toward Broader Use

The U.K. Is Still Counting the Cost of Brexit, 10 Years After the Vote

British Retailers Brace for Fallout From EU’s New E-commerce Customs Fees

National Debt Hawks Write Like 1981-Present Didn’t Happen

Greenspan Left a Lasting Mark on America—and Me

Greenspan’s Legacy Is as Convoluted as His Words

Can the Market Still Bet on the ‘Greenspan Put’?

Will the Shadow Fed Chair Please Stand Up?

The Tech Sell-off Goes Global

‘It’s Unnerving’: Markets Recoil in Global Sell-Off Driven by Tech Stocks

Apollo Caps Private Credit Fund Again After 17% Request to Exit

KPMG Australia’s Chairman and Two Partners Resign as Audit Scandal Widens

Top-Paid CEOs Smash the $200 Million Payday

Elon Musk Confirms Ancient Concerns About the Superrich

Evolving Markets Drove the Remote Work Revolution

Beware the Hidden Risks Lurking in Property Tax Cuts

China Takes Supercomputer Crown From U.S. for First Time Since 2017

This Megafactory Is a Test Case for the U.S.-China Tech Race

What Companies Adapting to AI Can Learn From the Plague

The Insurmountable AI Flood: The Growing Crisis for America’s Child Abuse Investigators

Vedanta’s CopperTech Metals targets $3.6 billion valuation in US IPO

Porsche and Mercedes Are Feeling the Pull of the American Highway

REO Says It Will Build A $21,500 Truck For The Masses, I Spoke To The CEO To See If They’re Legit

A Credit Loophole So Big You Can Drive an SUV Through It

How Eli Lilly Got Huge By Making Us Thin

Domino’s Picks Veteran Executive to Steer It Through Tough Patch for Pizza

Games Industry Faces More Painful Months Ahead

How Pokémon Cards Became Scarce, Valuable and Surprisingly Dangerous

Amazon Prime Day Shoppers Plan to Hold Out for Steep Discounts

Athleisure Brand Vuori Targets China in Global Retail Push

Tennis Has a New Problem: Sinner and Alcaraz Are Too Good

Be sure to follow me on X.

Morning News: June 22, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 22nd, 2026 at 7:08 am

While the World Scrambles for Oil, China Sits on Full Tanks

Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Talks Show Signs of Progress

How Do You Solve a Global Energy Crisis? Diversify

China Warns of Trade Fractures If Protectionism Persists

Trump’s New US Tariff Wall Shakes Up Winners, Losers Lineup

Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister, Paving Way for Burnham

Good Luck, Andy Burnham. You’ll Need It

After the Fracture: How Britain’s Financial Industry Recovered from Brexit

Alan Greenspan, Influential Fed Chairman Whose Legacy Was Dimmed by the Financial Crisis, Dies at 100

Kevin Warsh, The Fed, And The Soft Bigotry Of Low Expectations

A $2.8 Trillion Asset Management Star Is a Deal Away From Losing Its Crown

Peer-Beating Tech Fund Doubles China Exposure in Contrarian Bet

We Investigated Polymarket’s Deceptive Marketing Campaign. Here’s What We Found

The Latest in College Pricing: Tuition at 10% of Your Income

Loan Forgiveness Made Students Worse Off, Then and Now

The Playbook for Getting a Mortgage Below 6% in 2026

The ‘Magic Number’ for a Comfortable Retirement Just Got Bigger

Rearranging the Deck Chairs on CalPERS $500 Billion Ship

How to Solve the Housing Crisis? Everyone Has an Idea

Building-Materials Supplier CRH to Buy Rival Arcosa for $8.5 Billion

Babcock International Launches $265 Million Buyback Program; Pretax Profit Falls

China Tightens Rare Earth Grip on U.S. Firms, Threatening Trade Clash

Is China Closing the A.I. Gap Faster Than Expected?

Chevron Strikes Power Deal With Microsoft for West Texas AI Data Center

AI Is the Engine, Not the Bicycle at the Technology Frontier

Elon Musk’s Right-Wing Cheerleaders Are Deeply Offended by Criticism of His Trillionaire Status

SpaceX Is the Opening Chapter In a Powerful Industrial Revolution

How Bosses Pysch Themselves Up for Their Biggest Moments

Is Your Vibe ‘High-Signal’ or ‘Anti-Signal’?

Getty Images Soars 200% in Early Trading After OpenAI Deal

‘Uber-Backed Electric Bike Firm Lime Seeks $180.9 Million in IPO

AbbVie to Buy Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9 Billion in Cash

Amazon Prime Day Pizza Promotion Offers Clue to Meal-Delivery Task

Amazon Should Share the Wealth of Its Prime Day Data

A Hoarder’s Redemption: Bed Bath & Beyond Will Take Your Decades-Old Coupons

What Climate Change Costs You at the Checkout

Gen Z Would Rather Not Date at All Than Pay $250 for Dinner and Drinks

Tide Already Dominates Detergent. Why Is P&G Pushing a New Version?

‘Toy Story 5’ Fuels Hollywood’s Hottest Summer Since 2019

Be sure to follow me on X.