Morning News: July 15, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2026 at 7:06 am

Trump’s New Iran Blockade Could Hit Oil Prices Harder

Oil Prices Tick Higher as U.S. Reinstates Iran Blockade

Trump Backpedals on Hormuz Cargo Fee Amid Pushback From Gulf States

Why US Gas Is Shrugging Off Record Heat

Dubai Property Tycoon Plans $20 Billion Development in Syria

China’s Economy Stumbles With Growth Unexpectedly Below Target

What Is the Carry Trade That’s Weakening the Yen?

Wall Street Bank Earnings Surge, Lifted by Trading and Investment Banking

Morgan Stanley Joins Wall Street Rivals’ Stock-Trading Boon

BlackRock Crosses $15 Trillion With $192 Billion of Inflows

PNC Beats Estimates as Lending Income, Fees Counter Higher Costs

PayPal Shares Surge Premarket on Reports of $53 Billion Takeover Offer

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates Are Still Giving Away Their Fortunes. Just Not Together

Someone Remind Vivek Ramaswamy That Wealth Is Created, Not Printed

Social Security Is Trying to Stabilize a Year After DOGE Cuts

Two Million Workers Are Locked Out of an Improving Job Market

The Housing Crisis Is Also a Retirement Crisis

Polls Show Voters Oppose Higher Corporate Taxes

How Trump Became ‘Grifter-in-Chief’: Let Us Count the Ways

The Trump Administration Is Right That a Brand Does Not a Boss Make

China Hedge Funds That Won Big on AI Start Looking for Exits

China’s Chip Champion to Raise Billions in Race for A.I. Control

AI Has Supercharged the Wealth Effect, Just Ask the Micron Millionaires

AI Backlash Builds in President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Backyard

New York Leads Nation in Moratorium on New Big Data Centers

AI’s Next Big Mission Is Rewiring Your Workplace

Meta’s Sudden Stock Rebound Shows Investors Endorse AI Plans

ASML Raises Outlook, Plans Capacity Hike as AI Boosts Demand

SpaceX’s Blow-It-Up Testing Won’t Fly on Starship

The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It?

Lucid Fends Off Bankruptcy Rumors as Future Hinges on Cheaper EV

XPeng Aims to Produce Over 1,000 Robots a Month as It Plans Global Rollout

J&J’s Disappointing Device Sales Weigh Down Strong Drug Demand

Public Health Groups Sue F.D.A. Over Flavored E-Cigarette Policy

Conagra Swings to Loss, Cuts Dividend Under New CEO

They’re Strangers United By One Goal: Drink 1 Million Beers

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CWS Market Review – July 14, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 14th, 2026 at 5:58 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Inflation Has Its Biggest Drop in Six Years

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation fell by 0.4% last month. I knew it was going to be down, but I was surprised that it was down that much. That’s the biggest drop in over six years. Wall Street had been expecting a drop but only of 0.2%. Over the last year, inflation is running at 3.5%.

The long-term statistics say that stock prices love low and stable prices and hate inflation. In fact, the only thing stocks hate more than inflation is deflation.

Of course, the big drop was due to the decline in energy prices. This is precisely why we look at core inflation which excludes food and energy prices. Food and energy prices can easily get knocked by temporary shortages. For June, core inflation was unchanged while Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 0.2%. Over the last year, core inflation is running at 2.6%.

Here’s a look at the 12-month rolling inflation rate (blue) along with the core rate (red):

It wasn’t just energy that held down inflation last month, but housing costs also played a role. Here are some details from CNBC:

The energy index slumped 5.7% in June, its biggest monthly drop since April 2020, though it still surged 15.7% on an annual basis, pushed by a 26.7% gain for gasoline. However, gasoline and fuel oil both saw decreases of more than 9% in June.

In addition, services costs, which are closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers for longer-run inflation trends, moderated significantly. Services excluding energy costs were flat, with shelter rising just 0.1% and transportation services posting a 0.3% decline.

Food prices rose 0.2%, while new vehicles were flat and used cars and trucks saw a 0.2% decline. Apparel prices, which are sensitive to both energy and tariff inputs, fell 0.6%.

Where does this leave the Fed? Probably not much of a change. Futures traders still expect a rate hike in September, but the odds dropped a little in today’s trading. Yesterday, the odds of a September hike were at 75%. Now it’s closer to 60%.

Thanks to some hopeful signs for peace in the Middle East, oil prices fell last month. In June, the price for West Texas Crude got as high as $97 per barrel. In July, it’s been as low as $67 per barrel.

This morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh gave his regular semi-annual testimony before members of Congress. On Tuesday, he went before the House Financial Services Committee. On Wednesday, he’ll go before the Senate Banking Committee.

Warsh is new on the job. The problem is that financial markets love to over analyze any minor clue in the Fed Chairman’s remarks.

In today’s testimony, he sounded very hawkish on inflation. Warsh said that inflation “has been a tax on the American people and businesses. We plan on getting rid of that tax.” That’s nice to hear, but Fed Chairmen have long been known for tough talk and wimpy policies.

Warsh created five task forces to examine how the Fed conducts business. The panels will look at Communications Strategy, Balance Sheet, Economic Data & Alternative Data, Productivity & Jobs and Inflation Framework. Twelve-month inflation has exceeded the Fed’s target for the last 64 months in a row. There’s certainly room for improvement.

IBM Has Worst Day Ever

Today was the unofficial kickoff for the Q2 earnings season. Several of the big banks reported today.

Before I get to the big banks, the big shocker today was IBM (IBM). The stock got pounded for a 25.2% loss. This looks to be IBM’s worst day in its 115-year history, even surpassing Black Monday in 1987.

Here’s a chart of IBM going back to January 1980 (without dividends):

Except for the late-90s, that’s not a very impressive chart.

Big Blue won’t report its earnings until next week, but it said its profits will be below expectations. This is exactly what I’ve talked about before. Profits are up for Corporate America, but expectations are even higher. Nowadays, if you miss, even by just a bit, the traders will be merciless.

According to the WSJ, “IBM said the performance of its software and infrastructure business fell short of expectations in the second quarter, and the company didn’t react quickly enough to the changing market conditions.” The drop erased $68 billion in market value. CEO Arvind Krishna said, “this quarter we faltered.”

The other fallout is that IBM is a Dow component. It’s been in the index continuously since 1979. This is where things get interesting because the Dow is a price-weighted index. This means the Dow is computed by adding up the prices of all 30 stocks and multiplying by six (or 5.9436, to be more precise). That means that all by itself, IBM cost the Dow more than 430 points today. Not including dividends, the stock is up 11% over the last 14 years.

Now let’s look at some of the bank earnings from today. Citigroup (C) appeared to have good numbers. For Q2, Citi earned $3.15 per share which beat estimates of $2.71 per share. In fact, Citi beat all 20 of the estimates Wall Street had for today.

Citigroup has received a lot of attention recently as CEO Jane Fraser has worked to turn around the bank. It seems that her plans are working.

The bank also announced a $30 billion share buyback, plus a 12% dividend increase. Still, the shares fell more than 4% today.

Goldman Sachs (GS) had a very strong quarter. The bank had equities revenue of $7.42 billion. That’s a blowout number. It’s up 72% over last year. Goldman had investment-banking fees of $3.4 billion, and $4.59 billion in rates trading.

The stock closed higher by 9% today. Like IBM, Goldman is also a member of the Dow. With a share price at $1,140, it has the greatest weight of any member of the index. Goldman is currently worth more than 6,800 points in the Dow.

JPMorgan (JPM), yet another Dow stock, reported its highest profit ever. Q2 equities rose 86% to $6.03 billion. Net income was $7.70 per share. Wall Steet had been expecting $5.64 per share. JPM gained 2.5% today.

Bank of America (BAC) saw its profits rise 27% last quarter to $9.1 billion. Earnings per share rose 34% to $1.21 per share. Revenue grew 15% year-over-year to $31.6 billion.

Tomorrow, we’ll get earnings from companies such as BlackRock (BLK), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of New York Mellon (BNY).

On Thursday, Abbott Labs (ABT) will be our first Buy List stock to report for this season. The stock has fallen the last few days but I’m expecting good results. For Q2, Abbott sees earnings coming in between $1.25 and $1.31 per share. For the whole year, Abbott sees earnings between $5.38 and $5.58 per share. I hope to see higher guidance.

That’s all for now. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 14, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 14th, 2026 at 7:04 am

1,000 Days of War and Upheaval That Reshaped the Middle East

Persian Gulf’s Oil Tanker Lifeline Takes a Hit

Oil Rises Above $85 a Barrel as Gulf Clash Escalates

Hormuz Tensions Put Commodity Supplies at Risk Far Beyond Oil

How Can Freedom Fuel Gasoline Be So Cheap?

Shell Gets More Tax Relief on $20 Billion Nigerian Oil Project

The World Is Cutting Ties With America. It’s Already Costing Us.

Money Isn’t the Root of All Political Evil

A Cocaine Bust in Spain Leads All the Way to Wall Street

Bill Archer’s Death Is Reminder That Spending Cuts Won’t Shrink Government

Big Banks Smash Earnings Records, but ‘Tectonic’ Risks Loom

Goldman Blows Past Stock-Trading Records With $7.42 Billion Boon

JPMorgan Bags Record Profit on $6 Billion Stock-Trading Haul

Citi Beats Every Profit Estimate as CEO’s Rebuild Gains Steam

BofA Profit Soars With Record Stock Trading, Dealmaking Rise

Wells Fargo Beats Estimates on Wealth, Investment Banking

Banks Needlessly Endure Regulations From a Bygone World

Buffett to Offload Berkshire Stake in 8 Years as Gates Snubbed

IBM Shares Tumble on Earnings Warning

Tower Semiconductor Shares Surge Premarket on Japanese Investment

DeepSeek’s Liang Tops Amodei and Brockman as Richest AI Founder

Behind the AI Rally Lies a Dangerous Leverage Cycle

Ever Cheaper AI Will Limit Its Returns. Just ask AT&T

Job Hunters Are Using AI to Cheat in Interviews, and Failing at the Office

Data-Center Builders Are Racing to Offload Stakes Worth Billions

How UAW’s Bold Leader Got Caught in New Wave of Union Infighting

Robotaxi Riders Are Falling Asleep, Sparking Frantic 911 Calls

The Lawyer Taking On StubHub Over World Cup Ticket Sales

Polymarket Partners With Crypto Firm During World Cup Semifinals

Hate-Watchers Unite for the World Cup

California, Other State AGs Sue to Block Paramount-Warner Megadeal

Can a Dozen Blue States Block the Paramount-Warner Merger?

Alvin and the Chipmunks Plan a Reboot for the Digital-First Generation

Famitsu at 40: Conspiracies, Clicks and the Future of Gaming Media

PepsiCo’s Turnaround Stutters as Americans Rethink Snacking

How Brands Sneak In Cheaper Ingredients to Protect Their Profit Margins

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Morning News: July 13, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 13th, 2026 at 8:44 am

How Putin Turned Japan Into a Den of Spies

Wall Street Can’t Ignore the $3 Trillion Saudi-UAE Rift

UAE Tells OPEC Its Oil Production Surged by 80% Last Month

What a Europe-Led NATO Would Look Like

Heat Wave Dries Up German Rhine Chokepoint to Strain Fuel Supply

Oil Rises After Weekend of Back-and-Forth Strikes by U.S. and Iran

Frequent Oil Draws From U.S. Strategic Reserve Push Old System to Breaking Point

War Leaves Economy With More Stubborn Inflation, Economists Project

Treasury Two-Year Yields Rise to Highest Since 2025 as Oil Jumps

Warsh’s First Big Call: Whether to Undo Last Year’s Cuts

The Thoroughly Preposterous Notion Of So-Called “Fed Independence”

Wall Street to Warsh: Skip the Guidance, But Tell Us What You Think About the Economy

Wall Street Banks Ramp Up Digital Assistants in Bid to Win Productivity Race

Trump Invested Crypto Gains in Stocks and Bonds, Filings Show

Why Australia’s Superannuation System Has Caught Trump’s Attention

Babies Are the New Investor Class

CLO Fund’s 50% Tumble Fuels Power Struggle That Spills Into Open

Credit Card Holders Are Using ‘Friendly Fraud’ to Get Back at Retailers

Dragging the Constitution Into Every Political Fight Will Kill It

19 Questions the Attorney General Needs to Answer

Higher Ed Responds to Market Incentives For the Better

The Next Labor Crisis May Be Too Few Workers. Could AI Help Pick Up the Slack?

Self-Checkout Was Never About Machines Replacing Cashiers

Peter Navarro Put’s a Bull’s Eye on Enterprising Americans

Economists Warn of A.I. Threat

The Cruel Economics of the 19-Day Anthropic Ban

A New Foe Has Emerged for Data Centers: Farmers

Meta’s Louisiana Data Center to Surpass $250 Billion Price Tag

Intel Invests €5 Billion in Irish Hub to Keep Up in AI Chip Race

SK Hynix Shares Plunge Most on Record in Deepening Korea Selloff

Europe Takes Step Toward Possible Social Media Ban for Children

States Prepare Lawsuit to Block Paramount’s Merger With Warner Bros.

‘Michael’ Crosses $1 Billion at the Box Office as Lionsgate Roars Back

‘Moana’ Falters at the Box Office, Casting Doubt on Disney’s Formula

Nippon Paint Makes $8.6 Billion Bid for AkzoNobel’s Decorative-Paints Unit

Shein Targets Over $40 Billion Valuation After China Nod for IPO

Forget France: China Is the New Foie Gras Champion

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Morning News: July 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 10th, 2026 at 7:05 am

Oil Product Markets Are the Real Hormuz Pain Point

Oil Prices Wobble as a Week of Hostilities Derails Shipping in Gulf

A Big Winner From the Iran War: Africa’s Richest Man

On the Iran War, Latin America’s Economies Dodged a Bullet

NATO Should Give Trump a 2-Year Timeout

When Billion-Dollar Non-Profits Stop Looking Like Charities

Is Buying a Home Still the Way to Wealth? Some Young Americans Aren’t Sure

The Great American Fun Shortage of 2026

Not Repeating Past Mistakes Is An Easy Path to Growth

Rejoice, the Four-Day Workweek Is Already Here

Fed Names VC Marc Andreessen, Ex-Walmart CEO Doug McMillon to Warsh’s Task Forces

The Wall Street Firm at the Center of Trump’s Trading Spree

Wall St. Sets Limits on Prediction Market Trading

Traders Hedge for FX Volatility Return as Fed Uncertainty Builds

Carry Trades Face Best Conditions Since 2000, Goldman Says

JPMorgan Builds AI Agents That Beat 60/40 Portfolio in Backtests

Meta Is Ushering In the Era of the K-Shaped Company

Meta Told to Make Changes to Instagram and Facebook in Europe

AI Is Driving a Wave of Business Formations in the US

AI Fuels Startup Boom Across the US

SK Hynix Raises $26.5 Billion in Biggest Foreign Debut in US

How Once-Struggling SK Hynix Became a Trillion-Dollar Company

China Omits Job Goal for First Time in Decades as AI Spreads

‘Ziplink Is Now Froggle’: The Story Behind the Fake AI Ads That Went Viral

Novogratz Morphs Galaxy Into AI Landlord, One Gigawatt at a Time

Apollo Approaches Record Spend With EasyJet and Bayer Deals

China Successfully Launches, Retrieves Reusable Rocket Booster

Boeing Unveils New 737 Line as Industry Drives to Boost Output

Airlines and Hyperscalers Clamor for Turbines. Only a Few Companies Make the Parts

The Return to Flying Faster Than Sound Will Start Small

Delta Beats Estimates as Travel Demand Withstands Fuel Costs

BMW Books Drop in Sales on Weak China Performance

Volkswagen to Slash Half Its Models as Sales Fall

John Deere Must Let Owners Repair Farm Equipment, Settlement Says

Hotel Workers Hoped the World Cup Would Boost Their Hours. It Didn’t.

Barcelona’s New Message: ‘Not One Tourist More.’

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Morning News: July 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 9th, 2026 at 7:08 am

Oil Prices Remain Elevated Amid Slowdown in Shipping Traffic in the Gulf

Oman Tells UN It’s Against Imposing Transit Fees in Hormuz

How the Future of Hormuz Is Testing Oman’s Balancing Act

The Memorandum of Misunderstanding’s Margin of Error

If the US Keeps Messing With This Spy Agency, It’ll Pay a High Price

Governments Must Fix Their Debt Messes Before It’s Too Late

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Agree: The US Should Have a Sovereign Wealth Fund

Cracks in the Peace-Trade Rally

US Relies More on Foreign Stock Than Debt Flows, a Dollar Risk, Deutsche Bank Warns

Actually, the American Economy Isn’t in Decline

Warsh to Get Some Inflation Relief From Upcoming PCE Makeover

Citigroup Expands Cross-Border Instant Payments to Partner Banks

Kalshi in Talks with Regulators to Expand Never-Expiring Derivatives to New Areas

ISS Is Doing Exactly What It Promised Clients It Would Not Do

Eric Trump’s Bitcoin Bet Erases $600 Million From Family Fortune

China Climate Plan Pushes Renewables in Factories, Data Centers

How Trump and AI Data Centers Are Boosting Nuclear Power

‘Hysteria’ Grips San Francisco’s Housing Market as A.I. Wealth Pours In

Reporters’ Social Media Challenge Lands With a Thud

Winning Trade of Buying Chips, Selling Software Is Falling Apart

SK Hynix US Offering Is More Than Seven Times Oversubscribed

A Startup That Builds AI Agents Used One to Raise $100 Million

Micron’s Massive Profits Are a Guarantee of Trouble

As Flying Taxis Approach, Cities Are Making Room

Starbucks Taps AI to Cut Reliance on Microsoft, IBM Software

The $80 Billion Debt Cloud Hanging Over David Ellison’s Warner Deal

Lawmakers Target the Power of Health Insurance Giants

Tobacco Stocks Are Coming in From the Cold

Buc-ee’s Is on a Rampage and No Mascot Is Safe

Why Everything Is Tiny: Maxed-Out US Shoppers Embrace ‘Mini Effect’

PepsiCo Says Tightening Shopper Budgets Hit US Snack Sales

CoverGirl Stops Chasing Gen Z to Focus on Middle-Aged Women

At the World Cup, Nike and Adidas Duel Over the Future of Soccer

Can a Workout Be a Sport?

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Morning News: July 8, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 8th, 2026 at 7:07 am

Trump Vents Anger With Iran and Warns Ceasefire May Be ‘Over’

Oil Prices Jump and Stocks Drop After Trump Says Iran Deal Is ‘Over’

Oil Wildcatters Seek a Piece of Venezuela Despite Quakes

NATO Weighs Scrapping 2027 Summit to Avoid Tensions With Trump

Trump Renews Call to End Trade With ‘Terrible Partner’ Spain

Trump Promised a Foreign Investment Boom. It’s Getting Harder to Deliver.

US Trade Deficit Widens in May to Biggest in More Than a Year

‘How to Win a Trade War’ Review: The Times of Tariffs

China Extends US Soybean Buying Spree as Trade Thaw Continues

The Supreme Court’s Originalism Is Dead, Dead, Dead

Signing Paperwork Won’t Stop Government Leaks

Will Quantum Crack Crypto? Why Bitcoin Owners Worry

Trump-Backed Company Behind Family Crypto Wealth in Talks to Sell Core Business

“Experts” Quite Simply Don’t Hold a Candle To Markets

UniCredit Nears Control of Commerzbank After Takeover Push

Citi’s Tokenized Shares Test Whether Transparency Remains the Price of Liquidity

Leveraged Stock ETFs Are as Stable as a Row of Dominoes

Pricey Credit Markets Fuel Rise of Funds That Can Buy Anything

When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Slide Sends Valuation to Pre-AI Boom Levels

Prediction Markets Can Work Without Money on the Line

Clash of Florida Titans Pits Powerful Tribe Against Homebuilder Lennar

Low Birth Rate Risks Creating US Housing Glut Over Coming Decade

Global M&A Surged This Year With Massive AI Deals, Mergermarket Says

Anthropic and OpenAI Face a New Threat from China

Data Centers Aren’t Crowding Out Investment, They’re Expanding It

Apple to Spend $30 Billion on U.S.-Made Chips From Broadcom

SpaceX Analysts Are From Mars, Investors Are From Venus

FanDuel Says US World Cup Game Brought Record Bettors for Soccer

How an Italian Bike-Parts Pioneer Fell Behind at the Tour de France

White House Pressures Top U.S. Grocers on Beef Prices

Germans Don’t Love Budweiser. It Won’t Take No for an Answer.

Why Smucker’s $5 Billion Bet on the Twinkie Flopped

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CWS Market Review – July 7, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 7th, 2026 at 5:44 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

We’re at an odd moment for the financial markets. Not much is going on right now, but soon, a lot will be going on. Last week, we got the June jobs report, and there’s still some fallout after it because the report was not very encouraging.

Apparently, the “no-hire, no fire” economy appears to be still at work. One of the odd aspects of this economy is that the unemployment rate is only at 4.2%. That’s quite low. In normal times, that would be celebrated. Not now.

Last month, the U.S. economy created half the number of jobs expected. The jobs report was probably enough for the Fed to delay, but not cancel, its plans for an interest-rate hike.

We’ll get the minutes of the last Fed meeting tomorrow. This was the first one under the stewardship of new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh. He’s already streamlined the Fed’s policy statements.

Where are we as far as the stock market goes? For the last six months, the stock market has been mostly flat except for two short and brief selloffs. There could be a third waiting in the wings. As we know, the market loves to “retest” levels of previous support. So far, the bulls have been willing to push back on any drop, but I wonder how long that can last. The headlines may soon change.

We won’t get the CPI report until next week, but I imagine that the falling price for oil will also help push back its plans for a rate hike. Not that long ago, the price for oil was creeping up to $120 per barrel. Lately, it’s been less than $75 per barrel.

The S&P 500 market pulled back again today but it’s still above its 50-day moving average, and it’s not far from another all-time high. Yesterday, the Dow closed at a new all-time high. The two indexes have diverged in recent weeks. Since the middle of May, the Dow is up 6.5% while the S&P 500 is up just 0.8%.

Since the start of June, the Nasdaq Composite had performed worse than both the Dow and the S&P 500. This is probably due to the market having taken a more defensive posture. Value stocks have also outperformed since the start of June. It’s been a long time since value stocks were hot.

Value had a nice run in 2022. Outside that, value has had a rough time of it over the last 20 years.

Chip stocks have performed especially poorly in the last few days. Intel (INTC) fell nearly 10% today. The ETF to follow for this sector is the aptly named VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). Don’t feel too bad about the semiconductor stocks. In the last 15 months, SMH has more than tripled.

In today’s trading, utilities and REITs both did better than the overall market. The desire for higher yielding stocks dovetails with the Fed’s desire to hold off raising interest rates. It’s hard to make a case that we need to raise interest rates as jobs are growing and oil prices are falling. The futures market currently sees one rate hike coming by Halloween.

The Best-Performing Stock of All-Time

I recently got Meb Faber’s new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250-Year Bull Market. I love market history, so it’s no secret that I really enjoyed Meb’s book. I highly recommend it. Here’s a brief snippet I thought you might enjoy on the best-performing stock of all time.

What is the best-performing stock of all time?

Hank Bessembinder, who authored the famous academic paper, “Do stocks outperform treasury bills?” found the answer in his paper “Which US stocks generated the highest long-term returns?”

Eighty stocks had returns of over 500,000% in their lifetime, but only one had a total percentage gain of 265,528,901%. If you had invested $1,000 in the stock in 1925, it would be worth over $25 billion by the end of 2023. What was it?

Some may guess Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), but that was only a 792,053% return. Microsoft (MSFT) offered up a paltry 622,498%.

No, the actual winner was Altria (MO)!

Most people probably assume that the best performing stock returned something like 30% or 50% per year. Only six stocks out of the top 100 had returns of over 20% per year. In fact, most of the best performing stocks had returns in the mid-teens. That’s not shabby, of course, and it’s better than the broad index, but not like the eye-popping returns you seeing being advertised on Instagram.

The key is just that they did it for a very long time. The challenge with holding these winners is the path. If you held one of the best performing stocks over the past years, chances are it had a 70% or 80% or even 90% draw down. Could you sit through it?

Here’s how Altria has done since 1980. See that flat red line? That’s actually a 7,000% gain for the S&P 500. Only compared with Altria does it look like nothing.

I remember reading once about a stock (I think it was EMC) that a man owned. He sold his position without realizing that the stock had split. As a result, he still had a few thousand shares left. The stock took off. It gained something like 75,000% in the 1990s. He was informed that he had acquired a nice fortune in EMC.

(Update: I found a link to the story. I wasn’t dreaming it.)

The obvious question is, was he better off not knowing? I think many people would have sold out their position long before. Investing is one of the few pursuits where not doing anything can be a big advantage.

That’s all for now. Short issue this week, but that won’t last. Next Tuesday, July 14, we’ll get the CPI report for June. It will also be the unofficial kick off for Q2 earnings season. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 7, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 7th, 2026 at 7:08 am

China’s ICBM Tests Point to New Normal Rattling the Pacific

Iranian Strikes on Ships Test Cease-Fire and Threaten Energy Flows in Gulf

The Iran War Has Oil-Rich Alaska Freaked Out About $9 Gas

Jet-Fuel Prices Have Plunged but Aren’t Resulting in Much Lower Fares

Foreign Investment Rises, But Developing Countries Squeezed By AI Focus, Says UN

Abu Dhabi Ruler’s Family Office Is a Global Dealmaking Force

China’s PBOC Buys Most Gold Since 2023 as Bullion Swings

Bank of England Sees Growing Risks to Financial Stability from AI

The Fed’s Independence Is Unfinished Business

Private Equity for Everyone Is Getting Out of Hand

In the Federal Tax Debate, the Free-Market Side Is Being Played

You Can’t ‘Un-Break’ a Company, So Don’t Enforce Speedy Antitrust

Democratic Lawmakers Probe Lutnick’s Possible Ties to Cantor Fitzgerald Deal

Trump’s $40 Billion Travel Slump

Your Investing Expectations Are More Than Double the Reality. Here Is the Tough Truth

To Keep the Regulators at Bay, We Need Market-Driven Investment Trading Insurance

Trading Surge, Helped by Spacex IPO, Seen Lifting Wall St Banks’ Second-Quarter Earnings

Why Index Funds Haven’t Boosted SpaceX

Zuckerberg and Musk’s AI Failure Club Has Its Perks

AI Legal Startup Norm Valued at $1.2 Billion in Funding Round

AI Won’t Bring Back Era of Rapid Growth, Says Nobel Prize Winner

Which Companies Actually Use AI? A New Index Has Answers

Chinese Firms Leave Nvidia for Local AI Suppliers

Chinese AI Startup DeepSeek Developing Own AI Chip

Samsung Made More Profit Last Quarter Than the Last Two Years Combined

Finland Shows the Trust Barrier Facing Chinese EV Makers in the West

Toyota Investing $3.6 Billion In Texas Plant, Moving Most Tacoma Pickup Production from Mexico

Geothermal Startup Raises $144 Million to Drill Superhot Rocks

It’s Alarmingly Easy to Get Obesity Drugs Online

Almost $1 Billion Later, the US Still Can’t Make a Medical Glove

Walmart Lowers Prices on Thousands of Items, Including Beef and Coca-Cola

Why Are Berries Everywhere, in Every Season? Driscoll’s

Michaels Crafts an Unlikely Comeback Under Apollo

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Morning News: July 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 6th, 2026 at 7:09 am

Forcit Lands Naval Mine Deal as Baltic Sea Nations Boost Defense

The $2 Trillion Race for Control of Future Battlefields

Trump’s War Means Higher Global Interest Rates for Years to Come

OPEC, Allies Hike Output Again as Hormuz Traffic Starts Recovering

Oil Prices Are Falling, but OPEC Plus Pledges to Pump More

Japan’s Love of Plastic Is Being Tested by Supply Constraints

China’s Biggest ETF Is Now a Gold Fund as National Team Retreats

The Chinese Company That Could Start a Trade War With Europe

‘How to Win a Trade War’ Review: The Times of Tariffs

China Is Devastating the Last Stronghold of German Industry

Nearly a Million Investors Lost a Total of $3.8 Billion on Trump Crypto Coin

The Founders Are Why America Is Rich. That Legacy Is at Risk.

Young Americans Are Getting Prenups, Even If They Aren’t Rich

Wikipedia Is Battling for the Soul of the Internet

Trump’s Meddling Threatens Warsh’s Fed Leadership

Hedge Funds Dumped Chip Stocks for a Fourth Week as AI Shares Sold Off

The Investors Scrambling to Keep SpaceX – and Elon Musk – Out of Their Portfolios

US Investors Are Finally Getting a Clear Shot at SK Hynix

Don’t Call 67 Million Americans a Fringe

Paper Checks In the Mail Have Dangerously Outlived Their Usefulness

Two Banks Agreed to Merge. They Can’t Agree on How to Make Chili.

Personalized Pricing Is Pro-Business and Pro-Consumer

The Rise of Racetrack Country Clubs: ‘Racing Is Golf on Steroids’

Tech Billionaire Vinod Khosla Wants to Pay More Taxes. He Explained to Us Why.

Are the ‘MANGOS’ Stocks Already Turning Soft?

The Next AI Risk Isn’t Technology, It’s Politics

Social Media Age Bans Aren’t Perfect. So What?

AI Promises to Transform Robotics, Just Not Yet

Ondas to Buy Autonomous Aircraft Maker DZYNE for $875.8 Million

A Trucking Startup Aims to Challenge Tesla. Now, Paychecks Are Missing—and So Is a Truck

France’s Thales to Take Stake in Maritime Drone Maker Exail Ahead of Takeover

The Porsche Billionaires Can Stop VW From Crashing

Sony’s All-Digital PlayStation Strategy Doesn’t Sit Well With Gamers

Comcast Adds Heft With Sky’s Deal for British Broadcaster ITV

Liquor Stocks Are Priced for a Big Tobacco Moment

Tobacco Companies Are Cashing In on Zyn’s Unstoppable Popularity

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