Morning News: March 11, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 11th, 2026 at 7:09 am

World Races to Protect Oil Flows After Iran War Hits Exports

Tankers Shun Fujairah, Freeing Up Oil for Sale at Higher Prices

IEA Proposes Massive Release of Emergency Oil Stockpiles

LNG Suppliers Declare Force Majeure on Contracts From Qatar

Justice Department Probes Iran’s Use of Binance to Evade Sanctions

The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill

How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran’s Response to War

Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain

Romania Set to Allow US to Use Black Sea Base for Iran Missions

Europe’s New Energy Crisis Will Mean a Bull Market in Renewables

Oil Prices Are Leaving Airlines With Nowhere to Hide

The Railroad Safety Act Makes Railroads Less Safe

A Compromised Fed Would Risk a Fiscal Crisis

JPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Loan Markdowns

Pimco Sees Crisis of ‘Bad Underwriting’ in Private Credit

Boaz Weinstein Is ‘Buying Pessimism’ With Discount Bids on Private Assets

Apollo Plans to Value Private Credit Daily in Answer to Critics

Helping Americans Save Shouldn’t Be So Complicated

If You Think Housing’s Expensive Now, Let Government Make It ‘Cheap’

Help Airbnb To Make American Housing Great Again

Donald Trump’s FTC and California Have It Wrong About Unions

A Trump-Xi Summit Nears, but China Doesn’t Know What Trump Wants

Iran War Poses Double Edged Risks for China’s Reflation Efforts

China Moves to Curb OpenClaw AI Use at Banks, State Agencies

Hong Kong Authorities Raid Chinese Brokers Citic, Guotai

The Tycoon Who Had a Secret Life as an Alleged Scam Kingpin

Monte Paschi Reaches Deal on Terms of Mediobanca Merger

Amazon’s Mega Bond Sale Is Cheap — For a Reason

Microsoft Takes a Stand Against the Trump Administration

Why Tech Is Obsessed With Moltbook, a Social Network for Bots

Oracle Rallies as Strong Revenue Forecast Eases Concerns Over Massive AI Bets

Campbell’s Cuts Outlook as Snack Sales Fall

Cintas Agrees to Buy Uniform Maker UniFirst in $5.5 Billion Deal

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

CWS Market Review – March 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 10th, 2026 at 6:12 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

We’re now in the second week of Operation Epic Fury, and the economic fallout is becoming very apparent. The most prominent is certainly the big rise in the price of oil.

The Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down and roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply goes through there, as does a lot of fertilizer.

Since the start of military operations, oil has rallied significantly. The price for one barrel of West Texas crude nearly got to $120. That’s up from $57 per barrel at the start of the year. Oil fell sharply on Tuesday after President Trump said the fighting is “going to be ended soon.”

I’ll caution you that traders tend to move fast and quickly overdo it. If the war ends suddenly, then I’d expect oil to pull back, and it could be quick.

On social media, the President Trump wrote:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT

We’ll see, but higher oil prices are already working their way through the economy. In economic terms, rising oil prices act like a tax on consumer spending. Over the past week, the average price at the pump has increased by 51 cents per gallon.

Here’s a look at West Texas crude:

During the day yesterday, the S&P 500 drifted as low as 6,636. That’s more than 5.2% below its intra-day high from a little over one month ago. It’s certainly not a gigantic move, but it’s very different from most of the behavior of the market over the last year.

Overall, the market has been relatively calm given the headlines this week. That’s not unusual. After Pearl Harbor, the stock market slid until April 1942. The ultimate low came on April 28, 1942, 10 days after Jimmy Doolittle’s daring raid over Tokyo. After that, the market had an incredible run for the next 24 years.

As it turns out, yesterday was the 17th anniversary of the big 2009 low. That was probably the best buying opportunity in the last 40 years. Since then, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (which includes dividends) is up 13-fold. If you recall, there were a lot of negative voices back then.

Americans seem more pessimistic on the economy than the numbers would suggest. Pew Research recently found that just 28% of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good while 72% rate it fair or poor.

Last Friday, we got the big jobs report for February. The Labor Department said that the number of jobs in the country fell by 92,000 in February. That was below Wall Street’s estimate for a gain of 50,000 jobs. Some of this can be blamed on the weather and the government shutdown, but not all of it. No matter how you slice it, this was not a good jobs report.

On top of that, the jobs number for January was revised lower to a gain of 126,000 jobs. The economy has now shed jobs in three of the last five months. In December, the economy lost 17,000 jobs. This chart shows that job growth is cresting.

One good piece of news is that hourly wages rose by 0.4% in February. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of just 0.1%. Over the last year, wages rose by 3.8% which is more than inflation. I thought it was interesting that Kohl’s (KSS) reported earnings this morning and its revenue number was lower than expected. The retailer has been working hard to turn itself around.

The jobs report also said that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The unemployment rate is close to a five-year high. The broader U-6 rate fell to 7.9%. The labor force participation rate fell to 62%, which is its lowest since December 2021.

The jobs market has been helped by growth in the number of jobs in the healthcare sector, but even that took a hit thanks to a strike at Kaiser Permanente.

Information services, a sector hit by artificial intelligence-related cuts, also lost jobs, down 11,000 as part of a 12-month trend in which the sector has lost an average of 5,000 per month. Manufacturing saw a loss of 12,000, despite tariffs aimed at reshoring jobs from overseas.

Federal government employment also fell, off 10,000 for the month. President Donald Trump’s efforts to pare federal payrolls has seen a slide of 330,000 jobs, or 11% of the total workforce, since October 2024, a few months before Trump took office, according to the BLS.

Transportation and warehousing saw a reduction of 11,000. Social assistance was one of the few sectors posting a gain, up 9,000. The weather-sensitive construction industry lost 11,000 after surging by 48,000 in January.

The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and it’s very doubtful they’ll make any move, up or down, on interest rates. In fact, they probably won’t do anything in April and June as well.

As of now, the expectations are that we’ll get a rate cut in July or September. The curveball is inflation. If the events in Iran lead to a bump in prices, especially a long bump, that could give the Fed cold feet about making any rate cuts for the rest of this year.

We’ll learn more tomorrow when the government releases the inflation report for September. Wall Street expects to see headline and core inflation of 0.2% for February. I hope that would give more heft to the interest rate doves inside the Fed.

Stock Focus: National Presto

I always enjoy bringing little-known stocks to you. This week, I’m featuring National Presto (NPK) of Eau Claire, Wisconsin. The company is now in its 121st year of operations.

Going by the name, you might think National Presto makes equipment for magicians. Not quite. NPK has one of the more unusual business combinations I know of. The company makes small household appliances (slow cookers, fryers, skillets, etc.). They also make ammo for the War Department. National Presto also has a safety business which makes smoke detectors and carbon monoxide alarms.

It’s an odd fit, but it seems to work. The shares hit another new all-time high today. Since 1988, shares of NPK are up more than 85-fold. Even with all that growth, NPK still has a market value of $1 billion. Best of all, the stock isn’t followed by a single analyst on Wall Street. The stock is already up nearly 40% this year.

Last year, their defense sales rose by 42%. At the end of the year, their defense business backlog stood at $1.4 billion. That’s up from $1.1 billion one year ago.

That’s all for now. The next jobs report will be due out this Friday, March 13. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 10th, 2026 at 7:05 am

Why Iranian Regime Change Would Transform Global Energy Markets

Western Powers Rally to Defend Gulf States From Iran Attacks

U.S. and Western Allies Turn to Reserves to Counteract Gulf Oil Crisis

Global Leaders Race to Shield Their Economies From War Shocks

Trump Doesn’t Understand His Enemy. That Gives Iran an Edge.

The White House Is Still Flirting With Financial Chaos

How Americans Are Feeling the Economic Effects of the War With Iran

Gulf Oil Giants Deepen Cuts as Hormuz Halt Chokes Exports

China Stockpiled More Oil Before War Broke Out in Iran

Indian Oil Refiners Avoid Worst Effects of Iran War With Sanctions Reprieve

This Oil Shock Is Testing the Limits of US Energy Dominance

Gas Prices Hit $3.54 a Gallon, Up 19% Since Attacks on Iran

Can Tapping Oil Reserves Tame the Iran War Price Shock?

Trump’s Tax Cut Risks Getting Getting Canceled Out by Energy Price Surge

Markets Buffeted by War, AI Stress and Credit Cracks All at Once

‘Downright Panic’: Traders Tested to Limits on Oil’s Wild Monday

China’s Export Machine Keeps Pumping Ahead of Trump Visit

China’s Gen Z Day Traders Trust in Chatbots and Move Markets

Polymarket Taps Palantir, TWG AI to Police Growing Sports Bets

Busting the Myth of Treasuries as a Haven

Kevin Warsh Says the Fed Is Not a Repair Shop. He Must Draw the Line

National Bureau of Economic Research Cuts Ties With Larry Summers

Ackman Seeks $10 Billion in US IPO of Pershing Square and Fund

AI Is Killing Buy-and-Hold Investing. Here’s What Replaces It.

Pentagon Official Sees Little Chance to Revive Anthropic AI Deal

AT&T Will Spend $250 Billion Over Five Years on Network

Meta Hikes Fees for Advertisers to Cover Europe’s Digital Taxes

Exxon Eyes Texas for Legal Home After 144 Years in New Jersey

Soaring Gas Prices Are Latest Blow for Auto Industry in Constant Whiplash

NIO Turns First Profit on Record Sales, Strong Margins

U.S. Solar Installations Fell in 2025 as Trump Attacked Clean Energy

Aluminum’s Surge Propels Chinese Tycoon to $48 Billion Fortune

Shell to Sell Jiffy Lube to Monomoy in $1.3 Billion Deal

Fed Up With High Costs, American Theater Takes a Trip to London

Fashionable Wall Street Bros Set Off a Social Media Storm

Kohl’s Sales Slip Despite Turnaround Efforts

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 9th, 2026 at 7:02 am

Iran Signals No Letup in War as Khamenei’s Son Made Leader

The Oil Pipelines That Could Decide the Iran War

Iran Moving a Lot of Oil Through Hormuz, Satellite Tracker Says

Saudi Arabia Starts Oil Cuts as Hormuz Closure Fills Storage

G-7 to Discuss Joint Release of Emergency Oil Reserves

At $110 Oil, a Longer War Is Here for Markets

Iran War Is Giving Markets a Covid-Like Shock

U.S. Gasoline Prices, Rising Again, Are Now Up 17% Since Conflict Started

US Stock Futures Drop as Oil Spike Boosts Inflation Fears

Stagflation Trades Sweep Markets as Trump Signals Widening War

Yardeni Raises Odds of US Market Meltdown to 35% on Iran War

Iran War Fuels Central Bank Rate Hike Bets on Inflation Fears

Amid Oil Shock Uncertainty, Fed’s Hammack Says Central Bank Must Lower Inflation

Is Inflation Cooling or Stubbornly High? Both Can Be True.

For China, Billions of Dollars Are at Risk From a Widening War

India Farmers Stage Fresh Protest in Delhi Against US Trade Deal

Activist Threat Pushes Japanese Companies to Unwind Cross-Shareholdings

Private Credit’s Gate-Crashers Are Forcing Funds Into a Brutal Spot

Before the Next Crackup, Policymakers Should Focus On What Investors Own

Timely Bet on Gold Delivers 2,049% Return for Billionaire Family

The Bank Trump Is Relying On for Rare-Earth Minerals

A Crypto Coin Is Gobbling Up U.S. Treasuries

Trump’s Iran War Will Compound His Affordability Woes

Consumers Paid Tariffs on Overseas Items. Now They Want a Refund.

Senate’s New Housing Bill Would Force Large Investors to Sell Homes

Why the AI Boom Will Make Phones, Cars and Electronics More Expensive

The Former Coal Miner in the Middle of the A.I. Data Center Boom

Jack Dorsey’s Mass Job Cuts Expose Tech’s Bogus Narrative

The United States Has a $3.7 Trillion Infrastructure Challenge

Trump Sons Back New Drone Company Targeting Pentagon Sales

Hims & Hers Surges on Novo Obesity Deal That Ends Public Feud

24 Hours With Nike’s C.E.O. as He Races to Win Back the Sports World

Live Nation Nears DOJ Settlement That Avoids Ticketmaster Sale

A New Generation of Mall Rats Has Arrived

How Swig Turned Dirty Soda Into a National Obsession

A $1,000 Dog Grooming Session? The Pet Wellness Industry Is Booming.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 6th, 2026 at 7:04 am

How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply

WTI Crude Tops $85 a Barrel as War Paralyzes Hormuz Traffic

Iran War Sees Energy Exporters Scramble for Routes Out of Gulf

Iran’s Attacks on the UAE Are Costing It Access to Vital Imports

What Mohammed bin Salman Fears Most From the War With Iran

US Grants Temporary Waiver for India to Import Russian Oil

This Isn’t an Energy Crisis — at Least Not Yet

Cap and Trade Works in Europe. Don’t Screw It Up

Germany’s Solar Boom Eases Power Costs as Gas Price Jumps

Americans’ Relationship With Gas Prices Is Complicated

How War in Iran Is Colliding With Trump’s Economic Priorities

Trump Woos Venezuela With Potential Deals as Relations Reset

As Dead as Fried Chicken’: Why Trump Finally Fired Kristi Noem

States Sue to Stop Trump From Reviving Steep Tariffs

The Race to Seize on Lower Tariffs Has Businesses Rushing In Shipments

How the Dash to Collect Tariff Refunds Will Play Out

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Unwisely Belittles the Reagan FCC

Credit Traders Are Rapidly Unwinding a Gigantic Bullish Position

Goldman Junior Bankers’ Photo Shoot in Hermes, Tom Ford Sparks Blame Game

Along Came an Influencer: How America’s Bestselling Writer Became MrBeast’s Co-Author

The Wildest Frat Party on Campus? Prediction Markets

Big Revisions Are a Reason to Question Jobs Numbers, Not Dismiss Them

Health Care Has Become the Lifeblood of the Labor Market

If No One Reads Newspapers, How Can ‘the Press’ Be Left Wing?

SoftBank Seeks Record Loan of Up to $40 Billion for OpenAI Stake

AI Needs to Get Cheaper, Not Smarter

How Pickup Trucks Are Becoming Self-Containing Power Stations

With American Booze Out of Favor, Canadian Drinkers Are Going Local

The Allure of ‘Slop Bowls’ Fades as Consumers Tighten Spending

Going All In on Steak Made Texas Roadhouse No. 1 in Casual Dining

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 5th, 2026 at 7:05 am

Dubai and Its Neighbors Face a Huge Dilemma Over Iran

Iran’s Drones Cost a Fraction of the U.S. Weapons Shooting Them Down

Oil Tanker Suffers Explosion as Risks Spread Wider Into Gulf

Oil Rises as Iran War Piles Further Stress on Energy Supplies

This Oil Shock Hits Differently for the US

How War in the Persian Gulf Could Spill Into the U.S. Economy

Energy Dominance Won’t Stop US Fuel Costs Pushing Higher

China Tells Top Refiners to Halt Diesel and Gasoline Exports

China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 as Old Model Falters

America Second, Israel First?

Iran War Punctures Strategy of ‘Sell America, Buy Asia’

How Data Centers Became a Casualty of War

Wall Street Is Betting on Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

They Made It Through the 24 Hours That Rocked South Korea’s Markets

What the Extraordinary Market Volatility in Asia Says About Energy and A.I.

World Bank Says $50 Billion Committed to Africa Power Plans

Why EV Chargers Are Booming Despite Slumping New Car Sales

Why Gold Stablecoins Will Not Dethrone “King Dollar”

Private Credit Is Learning All About Liquidity

BlackRock Slashes Another Private Loan Value From 100 to Zero

US Job Cut Announcements Ebb After Jumping at Start of 2026

‘No Tax on Overtime’ Isn’t All It Seems for Some Workers

Anthropic Reopens Talks with Pentagon After Feud Over AI Safety

Wall Street Sees AI’s ‘Creative Destruction’ Coming For Entire Companies

China’s Traditional Businesses Try to Buy Into AI Boom

Musk’s Freewheeling Tweets Land Him in Legal Jeopardy Again

DHL Parent Deutsche Post Expects Earnings Growth Despite Uncertain Conditions

Eli Lilly Launches Program to Help Boost Employer Coverage of Obesity Drugs in U.S.

$2.5 Million Rift Pits Cannabis Pioneer Against Group That Backed Her

Kroger Offers Cautious Sales Forecast as New CEO Takes Over

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 4, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 4th, 2026 at 7:03 am

The High Stakes of Keeping the Strait of Hormuz Open

Energy Price Fears Ripple Through Global Markets

How the Iran War Is Choking Off the World’s Oil and Gas

Iran Conflict Is Starting to Boost Gasoline Prices

Why American Frackers Aren’t Rushing to Pump More Oil

US to Exempt Rosneft’s German Unit From Sanctions Indefinitely

The Iran War’s Most Precious Commodity Isn’t Oil

How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened

Chaotic Prediction Markets Need Reining In

‘Whatever It Takes’ Rattles Global Markets

Stock Crash Wipes Out Leveraged Bets in Korea, Sowing Panic

OECD Sees Rising Refinancing Risk as Bond Sales Surge

Bessent Says Trump’s Tariff Hike to 15% Likely This Week

Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

Kashkari Says Fed Can Sit Tight as War Clouds the Outlook

Big Lenders’ Risky Loans Are Rattling Wall Street

MrBeast Is Getting Into Financial Services. Parents Should Pay Attention.

American Housing Dream, American Housing Nightmare

Homeowners Stay Put for 12 Years, Stifling the US Housing Market

To Cut Housing Costs, Some States Are Easing Fire Safety Rules

Trump Administration, in Reversal, Tries to Continue Fight Against Law Firms

A Tiny Silicon Valley Startup Envisions Computing Beyond the Semiconductor

How the Digital Age Sparked An Analog Revival

The US Has Enough Missiles for This War But Not the Next One

Claude AI Helped Bomb Iran. But How Exactly?

Anthropic Nears $20 Billion Revenue Run Rate Amid Pentagon Feud

Sahm: Jack Dorsey Is Wrong: Pro-Worker AI Is Possible

Schaeffler Shares Plunge After Guidance Falls Short of Expectations

U.S. Automakers Risk Being Reduced to Niche Producers of Gas Vehicles

ASM International Posts Net Profit Above Market Views

Netflix Won By ‘Losing’ the Battle for Warner Brothers Discovery

Paramount-Warner Deal Promises to Shake Up Streaming

Activist Elliott Invests $1 Billion in Pinterest

Bath & Body Works Reports Lower Profit

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

CWS Market Review – March 3, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 3rd, 2026 at 6:32 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

This weekend, the U.S. military commenced Operation Epic Fury with its mission of toppling the theocratic regime in Iran.

I’m far from an expert on defense issues or geopolitics (although I am a retired PFC), so I have no valuable insights on the efficacy of the mission or its potential outcome.

Around here, our concern is with finance and how the markets are reacting. For now, markets are clearly nervous. On Monday, the U.S. stock market opened lower. At one point, the S&P 500 was down 1.2% on the day. As you’d expect, many defense and aerospace stocks held up well along with energy stocks. Several travel-related stocks were among the losers.

Let me caution you that I see absolutely no reason for investors to sell. If anything, a downturn could present us with a good buying opportunity.

Bear in mind that a lot of successful investing boils down to doing nothing when everybody else is panicking. As the great Jesse Livermore said, “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?”

Got it.

Despite the market’s weak morning on Monday, the index finished slightly positive by the closing bell. I’m sure a lot of people didn’t see that coming, and it’s a good reminder that the market loves to do what’s not expected.

Today we saw similar action but with even greater swings. At one point this morning, the S&P 500 was down over 2.1% and it briefly reached a three-month low. Like on Monday, the market reversed course and eventually closed lower by 0.9%.

Also today, there was a clear “run for safety.” By that, I mean that much of the losses were concentrated among High Beta stocks while the Low Volatility sector held up far better (still down, mind you, but not as much).

In plain English, the conservative stocks remained calm while the volatile stocks were more…well, volatile.

Check out this chart which shows the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index (in blue) compared with the S&P 500 High Beta index (in red). Since early January, Low Vol has been doing much better. This comes after last year when High Beta thrashed Low Vol.

We can also see this flock-to-safety among size categories. The big guys in the S&P 100 were down just 0.6% today, but the small-cap Russell 2000 was down close to 1.8% today.

Not surprisingly, the price of oil gapped up this week, but it wasn’t a panic move. One-fifth of the world’s oil consumption goes through the Strait of Hormuz. There could be a dramatic price spike, and that would certainly hurt consumer spending.

We saw that happen after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and that helped tip the economy into a recession. It can take a while before a disruption in the oil market appears as prices at the pump, and the odds of higher prices increase the longer the military operation lasts.

On Monday, we got the ISM manufacturing index report. This is a good report to watch because it usually comes out on the first business day of each month. Monday’s report said that the ISM Manufacturing Index for February was 52.4. That’s down a small bit from January’s number of 52.6. Wall Street had been expecting 51.8.

Any ISM number above 50 means that the factory sector of the economy is growing. This was the second month in a row of expansion, and it comes after 10 months in a row of contraction.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t meet again for another two weeks. It’s very doubtful that the Fed will make any move on interest rates at its upcoming meeting. In fact, it probably won’t make a move in the meeting again after that. The June meeting, however, could see some activity, but those odds have fallen some since the military operation started.

Remember that it’s very likely that Kevin Warsh will take over as the head of the Fed in May. Traders now see a 45% chance that the Fed will cut rates in June. That’s down from 56% a few weeks ago. The consensus on Wall Street is that we’ll have two 0.25% rate cuts before the end of the year.

On Friday, the government will release the jobs report for February. The January report said the economy created 130,000 new jobs that month. This time, economists expect to see a gain of just 50,000 jobs. A weak jobs number could spur the Fed to act, but at this point, it would have to be a dramatic miss. Now let’s look at one of my favorite little-known stocks.

Stock Focus: Allison Transmission

In our premium newsletter, we’ve recently finished all the earnings reports for Q4. (By the way, you can sign up for it here!) There’s one of our stocks in particular that I wanted to share with you, which is Allison Transmission (ALSN). In three-and-a-half months, shares of Allison are up close to 60% for us.

Allison has a market value of about $10 billion. While that may sound like a lot, it’s small potatoes on Wall Street. Only a few analysts cover the stock, which suits me just fine.

On February 23, Allison said it made $1.18 per share. That missed Wall Street’s forecast of $1.46 per share. The good news is that Allison gave reassuring guidance, and the shares rallied 4.4% the day after the report. After that, it closed higher for four straight days until finally closing lower today.

Allison specializes in making vehicle propulsion solutions, primarily fully automatic transmissions and electrified propulsion systems (including hybrid and fully electric options) for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

You can find their products in almost any vehicle including buses, motor homes and even the Abrams tank.

I added Allison to our 2025 Buy List, and it was a flop, but we held on and I’m glad we did. Once again, it was our sitting that did the trick.

The big news recently is that Allison completed the acquisition of Dana Incorporated’s Off-Highway Drive & Motion Systems business. This deal helps expands their footprint.

For all of 2025, Allison had sales of $3.01 billion, which matched its forecast. For the year, Allison made $7.33 per share. That’s down from $8.31 per share in 2024.

Let’s look at guidance, which is a little complicated due to the Dana deal. For all of 2026, Allison expects sales between $5.575 billion and $5.925 billion, but sales for the Allison Transmission segment are expected to range between $3.025 billion and $3.175 billion. That’s better than I had expected.

For 2026, Allison expects net income between $600 million and $750 million. That’s compared with $623 million last year. That’s not bad. It works out to net income of roughly $7.25 to $9 per share. If that’s right, then the stock is still going for a decent value. The current Enterprise Value/EBITDA is 11.67.

I also like that Allison increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to 29 cents per share. The new dividend is payable on March 20, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 9.

In our premium issue, I rate Allison a buy up to $130 per share.

That’s all for now. The next jobs report will be due out this Friday, March 6. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 3, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 3rd, 2026 at 7:06 am

Global Economy Is Facing the Prospect of Another Profound Shock

War, Oil and the World Economy

Trump Doesn’t Want Democracy in Iran or Anywhere. He Wants Puppets

Trump’s War on Iran Has Traders Staring Down an Energy Crisis

Oil Rally Builds as ‘Staggering’ Middle East War Jolts Energy

The US Has to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz as Soon as Possible

Airlines Grapple With Disruptions That ‘Far Surpass’ Previous Middle East Conflicts

‘Black Swan’ Risks Stalk Container Carriers in Avoiding Iran War

Tech Developer Syzygy Signs Deals Targeting Massive Boost in Sustainable Jet Fuel Supply

Coal Power’s Comeback Isn’t Spurring New Investment

Norway Wealth Fund Makes First Investment in US Renewable Energy Assets

Dubai’s Status as a Swiss-Style Haven Is Starting to Crack

Don’t Confuse the Iran War’s MAGA Critics With Most Republicans

What the Iran Strikes Could Mean for U.S. Inflation

Dollar Set for Biggest Surge in a Year as Inflation Fears Mount

Dimon Says Exuberant Market Doesn’t Match ‘Fine’ Economy

Is Free Trade Worth the Cost in Lives Lost?

Will Another Wave of Tariff Uncertainty Hold Economy Back?

The Unexpected Winners From Trump’s New Global Tariff

Tariffs Confound Small Businesses Again

Even Before He Reaches the Fed, Warsh’s Path to Rate Cuts Is Getting Tougher

Markets Have Evolved. So Should the SEC’s Disclosure Rules

Blackstone’s Flagship Private Credit Fund Hit by Record Redemptions

BlackRock Says Index Funds Alone Aren’t Enough for US Retirees

Palantir Is Back on Wall Street’s Buy List After a 38% Plunge

Is Europe’s AI Darling Mistral Becoming a Consultant?

Jack Dorsey Blamed AI for Block’s Massive Layoffs. Skeptics Aren’t Buying It.

Automakers’ Dilemma: Invest in New Tech or Stick to Gas Cars?

Toyota’s Buyout Deal is a Bigger Win for Elliott Than for Governance

Best Buy Surges After Results, Outlook Better Than Feared

Target Sales Just Fell Again. Now Its New CEO Plans for Turnaround.

Target Surprises With Upbeat Forecast on Improving Demand

Viking Enters Year With Strong Bookings, Earnings Top Estimates

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 2, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 2nd, 2026 at 7:02 am

Middle East Conflict Imposes Another Stress Test on Global Resilience

Trump’s Iran Strikes Usher In an Era of Unrestrained American Power

Decades of Presidents Ignoring the War Powers Act Led Us Here

Iran Strikes Won’t Succeed Without a Real Strategy

China Showing Few Signs It Will Directly Supply Arms to Iran

The Big Bet on European Defense Stocks Is Getting Expensive

Oil Prices Jump After Iran Attack, Pointing to Economic Risks

Iran Conflict Puts Oil Shock Back on Asian Central Banks’ Radar

Oil Spikes as Middle East War All But Halts Hormuz Ship Strait

Any Chance of a Fed Interest-Rate Cut In 2026 Is ‘Evaporating Before Our Very Eyes’ with Iran War Set to Stoke Oil Prices

Traders Trim BOE, Fed Rate-Cut Bets as War Spurs Price Fears

Swiss National Bank Reports Annual Profit of $34 Billion

A Guide to the Fault Lines in the Credit Market

Want to Boost U.S. Affordability? Get Rid of Tariffs

Stock Investors Brace for Iran War’s Economic Repercussions

Trump’s SEC Gave Companies More Power Over Investors. Lawsuits Pushed Them Back

Berkshire’s New CEO Lays Out How He Will Pick Up Where the Buffett Era Left Off

Will Stablecoins Strengthen the Dollar, and Stall the Rise of Gold?

Rio Tinto Approves $473 Million South Africa Mine Expansion

Why California is Reconsidering Nuclear Energy After 50-Year Ban

Anthropic’s Claude Chatbot Goes Down For Thousands of Users

OpenAI Steps Over a Red Line Anthropic Refused to Cross

Mobile Chiefs Reckon With AI Boom and Geopolitics at MWC 2026

BlackRock’s GIP and EQT to Buy AES Corp in $33.4 Billion Deal

The Obscure Fee Costing You More to Buy a Car

Asian Manufacturers Show Resilience as Demand Rises

Toyota Bumps Offer for Supplier to $30 Billion, in a Victory for Activist Fund Elliott

Netflix’s Co-CEO Explains Why He Quit the Warner Bros. Fight

China Spent Big on an African Media Empire, But No One’s Watching

In Alysa Liu and Eileen Gu, China and America See a Mirror Image

What to Know About the Live Nation Antitrust Trial

The Third-Largest Coffee Chain in the U.S. Actually Sells Very Little Hot Coffee

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.