September ISM = 56.2

Good morning and welcome to anarchy! Well, not complete anarchy, but we do have a partial government shutdown. I’m not sure how long this will last but it’s unpleasant to watch our dysfunctional political process.

On to today’s market. We had a good read for today’s ISM. The number came in at 56.2. Any number above 50 indicates an expansion. Below 50 is a contraction. This is the third month in a row that the ISM has topped 55.

Two academics have a method for calculating the odds of a recession. The latest update was this morning, but that’s off of July’s data. In any event, they peg the odds of a recession at 1.34%.

Shares of AFLAC ($AFL) are having a good day. The stock was upgraded by FBR Capital. They also raised their price target to $70 per share. AFL has been as high as $63.30 today. The 52-week high is $63.63.

Ford ($F) just reported another strong month for sales. Last month was their best month in seven years.

The biggest sales driver was the continuing boom in pickup truck sales, with the F-Series trucks posting a fifth consecutive month of more than 60,000 sales.

The redone Fusion mid-size sedan also continued its strong year with sales up 62% to 19,972, while the Fiesta subcompact was up 29% to 5,043 — and Ford said these cars were building sales in markets where Ford has been week in the past.

“We’re particularly encouraged by the strength of the Fusion and Fiesta, especially in coastal markets,” said Ken Czubay, U.S. sales head, in a statement.

Ford said Fusion retail sales were up 59% in the West and 26% in the Southeast, while Fiesta is up 41% in the West.

Continuing to show signs of life for the nearly moribund Lincoln brand, the new MKZ sedan sold 2,874, up 12%, adding a fifth monthly best, Ford said.

The stock is back above $17 this morning. Look for another good earnings report later this month.

Posted by on October 1st, 2013 at 10:07 am


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