The Fiscal Year Numbers Are In

Today’s third-quarter GDP report also gave us our first look at the GDP for the entire 2013 fiscal year. Nominal GDP totaled $16.62 trillion for the FY 2013 which was an increase of 3.26% over FY 2012. (This is, of course, our first look; there numbers will be updated many more times.)

With the recent budget data, we now have the latest data point on the government’s taxing and spending as a percent of GDP. You often see this chart in policy debates so you may be familiar with it, but I have to explain that three months ago, the BEA updated the entire GDP data series. As a result, many of the versions of this chart you see on the web are incorrect.

Below is the updated version. This may be the only place you’ll find it:

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Also, I’m a big fan of the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database, so it pains me to say that their numbers are out-of-date as well. Their Fiscal Year GDP (FYGDP) series is based off the old GDP data. Also, their Receipts, Outlays and Deficit as a percent of GDP series (FYFRGDA188S, FYONGDA188S, FYFSDFYGDP) are based on calendar year GDP, not fiscal year. I’ve also included the 1976 “transitional quarter.”

Now let’s look at the numbers:

Uncle Sam spent $3.45 trillion last year which works out to 20.79% of the economy. That’s the second year in a row that spending as a percent of GDP has fallen and it’s well below the recent peak of 24.41% set in 2009.

The Feds took in $2.77 trillion in revenue which works out to 16.69% of GDP. That’s the fourth increase in a row, though it’s working off a very low bottom. The oft-heard talking point about “the lowest taxes in 60 years” is no longer operative.

The deficit came out to $680 billion which is 4.09% of GDP. I thought we had a shot of dropping below 4% but we couldn’t do it. Still, it’s an enormous decrease from the prior four years.

Posted by on November 7th, 2013 at 12:49 pm


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