The Mid-Year Rally

We’ve all heard about the Santa Claus Rally, but there’s a smaller historical rally that takes place around the middle of the year.

I crunched the numbers for the entire Dow’s history going back to 1896 and found that the index gains an average of 1.18% from June 29 to July 9. That may not sound like a lot but consider what it means: 16% of the Dow’s entire capital gain for the year has come over a seven-day span. (The Santa Claus Rally is a more impressive gain of 2.94% from December 20 to January 7.)

Historically, this mid-year seven-day spurt kicks off the big Summer Rally. The Dow has gained, on average, 3.69% from June 29 to September 6. That’s almost exactly half the Dow’s average yearly gain coming in just over two months.

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Posted by on July 1st, 2014 at 11:21 am


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