From the Department of Poor Incentives

Here’s a story I find interesting from an economics/regulatory perspective.

The NFL has been trying to limit the number of kick returns in football. Obviously, when you have very large men running at each other at top speed, that causes a disproportionate number of injuries.

A few years ago, the league moved the kickoff line from the 30 to the 35-yard line in an attempt to limit the number of kick returns. It worked. Last year, only 41% of kickoffs were returned.

For this season, the NFL made another change: after touchbacks, offensive teams started at the 25 instead of the 20-yard line. This new rule is being given a one-year trial run. The idea is that would give returning teams an extra benefit to take a knee.

But it appears the new rule is causing the opposite to happen. Now, kicking teams are trying to kick it short. The kicker is aiming to make the returner start as close to the goal line as possible without tipping into the endzone. That’s forcing a return.

For the kicking team, it’s a winning move if they can stop the return any more than an inch from the 25. The odds for that aren’t bad.

This is a classic story we see in the economy time and time again. The regulators have their heart in the right place. They’re trying to do something positive. Their first attempt to limit returns works, so they might as well try again. Yet the real world outcome of the new policy causes the exact opposite to happen.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said it’s possible the NFL may ditch kickoffs entirely.

Posted by on September 19th, 2016 at 12:49 pm


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