Fourth Downs: Kick, Punt or Go for It?

Brian Burke runs the excellent Advanced NFL Stats blog. He combs through mountains of data to uncover interesting aspects of the game.
Burke recently completed a big study looking at fourth downs and the advantages of going for it versus kicking or punting. As it turns out, football teams ought to go for it on fourth downs far more than they do.
After crunching tons of data, this is the chart Burke came up with showing the recommended option of what to do on fourth down.
The charts shows that football coaches have been far too risk averse. In fact, if they were to follow the advice on Burke’s chart, I think the number of field goal attempts would plummet.
The lingering question is why are coaches so conservative? Perhaps it has to due with the fact that the future points you might get are abstract, whereas punting down field is obvious.
Bear in mind that the advantage of going for it on fourth down isn’t that you’ll make the first down. Instead, it’s the net result of giving up the ball versus surrendering the ball with a punt farther down field. There are lots of variables in play.
There is a financial equivalent (I’m sure you were waiting). What Burke’s study is really looking is risk management. That’s what a lot of investing is about as well. The question investors need to ask isn’t if Dell is a good investment. Instead, is Dell a good investment given its risk compared with other investments with similar risk?
Behavioral economists have shown that we’re not so good at measuring probabilities. We’re far more likely to horde what we have rather than risk an uncertain payoff (See here where I asked: Which would you choose; $1,000 guaranteed or a 50% chance at making $3,000?)
For many years now, gold has outperformed stocks and Treasuries have beaten stocks for decades. According to conventional wisdom, that’s not supposed to happen but it did. Punting on fourth down is conventional wisdom so it will take a brave coach to be the first one to challenge this orthodoxy.

Posted by on September 16th, 2009 at 7:26 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.