Archive for August, 2005

• Dividend Aristocrats
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 23rd, 2005 at 5:44 pm

  Standard & Poor’s keeps and index of “Dividend Aristocrats.” These are stocks that have raised their dividend for 25 straight years. Here’s the current list:
  Abbott Labs
  Archer-Daniels-Midland
  Automatic Data Processing Inc.
  AmSouth Bancorporation
  ALLTEL Corp.
  Avery Dennison Corp.
  Bank of America Corp.
  Bard (C.R.) Inc.
  Becton, Dickinson
  Anheuser-Busch
  ConAgra Foods, Inc.
  Chubb Corp.
  Clorox Co.
  Comerica Inc.
  Century Telephone
  Dover Corp.
  Consolidated Edison
  Emerson Electric
  Family Dollar Stores
  First Horizon National
  Gannett Co.
  General Electric
  Grainger (W.W.) Inc.
  Johnson Controls
  Johnson & Johnson
  Jefferson-Pilot
  KeyCorp
  Kimberly-Clark
  Coca Cola Co.
  Leggett & Platt
  Lilly (Eli) & Co.
  Lowe’s Cos.
  May Dept. Stores
  McDonald’s Corp.
  McGraw-Hill
  3M Company
  Altria Group, Inc.
  Merck & Co.
  Nucor Corp.
  PepsiCo Inc.
  Pfizer, Inc.
  Procter & Gamble
  Progressive Corp.
  PPG Industries
  Regions Financial Corp.
  Rohm & Haas
  Donnelley (R.R.) & Sons
  Sherwin-Williams
  Sigma-Aldrich
  State Street Corp.
  Supervalu Inc.
  Stanley Works
  Target Corp.
  U.S. Bancorp
  V.F. Corp.
  Walgreen Co.
  Wal-Mart Stores

  The Aristocrats have outperformed the S&P by over 2% a year for the past 15 years. There’s also a list of European Aristocrats. These stocks have raised their dividends for 10 straight years.
  Atlas Copco AB – A Shares
  Barclays
  Capita Group
  Cobham
  Daily Mail & General Trust ‘A’
  FirstGroup
  Legal & General Group
  Misys
  Morrison Supermarkets
  Novartis AG
  Orkla ASA
  Rentokil Initial
  Roche Holding AG
  Roche Holding AG – Bearer Share
  Royal Bank of Scotland Group
  SCA – Svenska Cellulosa AB – B Shares
  Scottish & Southern Energy
  Svenska Handelsbanken AB – A Shares
  WPP Group

• Google to Start IM Service
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 23rd, 2005 at 5:36 pm

  Expect Google Talk to be out tomorrow. A new toolbar is coming as well.

• China National Petroleum to Acquire PetroKazakhstan
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 22nd, 2005 at 2:30 pm

  The Chinese aren’t slowing down. Now, China National Petroleum is buying PetroKazakhstan. This is a Canadian company that does business in Kazakhstan a country that has more oil than the U.S. On his TV show, Jim Cramer thought it was Russian.

  Kazakhstan held 3.3 percent of the world’s oil reserves at the end of 2004, according to data compiled by BP Plc. The country’s 39.6 billion barrels of oil reserves were 35 percent greater than the U.S. total. Kazakhstan produced 1.3 million barrels of oil a day last year.
  The country, which is adjacent to the Caspian Sea, is almost quadruple the size of Texas. About one of every five of the 15.2 million Kazakhs lives below the poverty line, according to U.S. government estimates.

• More on the VIX
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 22nd, 2005 at 2:07 pm

  Mark Hulbert had a good article on the VIX in the New York Times. I’m glad to see we agree that the VIX is not a good market predictor.

• The Soap Opera at MassMutual
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 22nd, 2005 at 1:58 pm

  The Wall Street Journal has the details on the great plot at MassMutual. Misuse of the company airplane, charges of padding a retirement account, and it all started with an angry wife nearly barging in on a board meeting.

• Brokers in Sheep’s Clothing
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 21st, 2005 at 3:13 pm

  I’ve always noticed that a stockbroker is never just a stockbroker. They’re “financial advisors,” or “account executives” or “investment consultants,” anything but a measly old broker. Barron’s has a good article by a broker on how to do business with one:

  If you do choose to deal with a broker, request a full accounting of how much you are paying in fees — and try to negotiate them lower. Point out that E*Trade offers to rebate 50% of your mutual funds’ 12b-1 fees, which are recurring commissions. If your broker suggests moving you into a fee-based account, ask for a comparison based on past and proposed commission activity to see if it’s right for you. Insist that any wrap fee be lowered by at least 15% to 20%. Most brokers can afford that in order to keep a good customer, since the fees are so high to begin with. If your broker suggests mutual funds with loads, ask about lower-cost exchange-traded funds. If he recommends a variable annuity, request a comparison with a no-load fund.

• The Fall of the Big Drug Stocks
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 20th, 2005 at 9:10 pm

  One of the most surprising developments in recent years has been the market-lagging behavior of the major drug stocks. The pharmaceutical industry is dominated by a small number of very large companies. For years, these stocks have been outstanding performers. They’ve been steady growers with fairly predictable earnings growth.

  In short, there are eight major American drug companies: Merck, Pfizer, Bristol Myers, Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lily, Wyeth, Schering Plough and Abbott Labs. Four of the eight are based in New Jersey.

  The industry has occasionally faltered. Once in the early 1970’s and again after Bill Clinton was elected in the early 1990’s. Once the Clinton health care plan was defeated, the industry hit bottom and started to rally very strongly. But this recent downdraft seems quite different. I’m afraid it might not be a transient sell-off, but a larger trend against drug stocks.

  For 15 years, Schering-Plough was the best-performing drug stock, but it started trailing the market in 1998. The company lost money in 2003 and 2004, and the stock is now lower than it was eight years ago.

  Pound-for-pound, Bristol Myers has been the weakest-performing major drug stock. Still, it’s done very well for investors. The stock started underperforming the market only four years ago. Since 1982, BMY is up over 1,400% including dividends (according to Yahoo’s very unreliable numbers).

  Wyeth, which used to be American Home Products, has performed remarkably similar to Bristol Myers. The stock has trailed the broader market over the past four years, but not as sharply as BMY. The stock is up over 2,100% since 1982.

  Merck’s performance is probably the most surprising. The company was the gold standard of the drug companies. It was conservative and consistent. The company lost some glamour as it was overtaken by Pfizer in recent years. The worst news of late has been Vioxx. Last year, Merck took a massive hit when it decided to stop selling the drug. On September 30, the day of the announcement, the stock dropped 27%. Over 145 million shares were traded that day.

  Up until late-2000, Merck had been a constant market beater. The stock was a huge winner in the 1980’s. It fell sharply in 1992-94 period, but it turned around impressively. Since 1982, shares of Merck are up over 2,000%.

  Pfizer was actually the worst stock in the bunch until 1990. By worst, I mean it merely kept pace with the S&P 500, it didn’t dramatically beat it. Then, in 1990 Pfizer suddenly became a market star. It fell during the 1992-94 period, but not as bad as the others. Once the dust settled, Pfizer took off. Thanks to Viagra, Pfizer soared over 1,000% in just five years.

  Pfzier started trailing the market four years ago, but it’s gotten much worse in the past 15 months. The stock is down over 33% since last year’s high. Since 1982, Pfizer is up over 3,600%.

  Eli Lilly is the toughest stock to figure out. The stock was a big winner in the 1980’s, but it was hit hard in the 1992-94 sell-off. The stock recovered and started to lead the market again. Since 1997, however, Lily hasn’t has any real trend. Over the last few years, the stock has been very volatile and the market doesn’t seem to know what to make of it.

  Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Labs have performed remarkably the same. The stocks track each other like waltzing partners. The big difference is that they’re both involved in other health care markets. That’s why they’re the most stable of the drug stocks and these two are the only ones that have done well in recent years. JNJ has actually beaten the market over the past year. It’s also the biggest winner since 1982. Shares of JNJ have gained over 4,000%.

  Analysts expect JNJ, Lily and Abbott Labs to grow their earnings at a 10% rate for the next five years. That strikes me a very subdued. But the other stocks are even worse. Analysts expect 8% growth from Merck, 6.5% from Pfizer and just 4.5% from Bristol Myers. Schering Plough has the highest at 20.5%, but I suspect that’s because its earnings have been so poor lately.
  

  Even after the lousy stock performances, I still think that many of these stocks are simply too expensive. This is still very baffling to me. I like to think that stocks can stay big winners for several years, but all things must change. For now, I’d steer clear of the entire sector.

• Investors Want Dividends
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 20th, 2005 at 5:00 pm

  With all this cash building up, investors are demanding higher dividends. Personally, I’d like to see higher dividend payments. The reason is very simple: Give investors the decision to buy back stock, don’t do it automatically.

  Dividend payments do fluctuate over time, but today’s dividend yields are weak by historical standards. The historical dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s 500 is roughly 4 percent; the yield in July was a pale 1.70 percent. Justifying such a low yield isn’t easy when companies in the index are sitting on a near-record $621.7 billion in cash.
  Investors used to count on dividends for much of their returns. In the 1930s through the ’50s, dividends were 60 percent to 80 percent of investors’ returns, Eby said. In the 1970s, dividends were 70 percent of stocks’ total return, Irving said.
  Dividends waned in the 1990s when upstart companies with no profits couldn’t afford to pay them, and growing technology companies argued that their money was better spent investing in the business or buying competitors.

  There are many benefits of higher dividends. Higher dividends reduce a stock’s volatility and make it easier to value the stock.

• Not All Index Funds are Equal
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 18th, 2005 at 3:05 pm

  Here’s a good point to remember: Not all index funds are alike.

• Fair Isaac
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 18th, 2005 at 2:57 pm

  One of my favorite stocks is Fair Isaac (FIC). Although most people have never heard of this company, they live in dreaded fear of them. Have you wondered about your “credit score”? Fair Isaac is the company that keeps watch over you and your borrowing habits. The company’s FICO score is the dominant credit-rating formula used by lenders. If you want, you can find out your score at www.myfico.com.

  Since Fair Isaac is so dominant in its industry, it can maintain a pretty high profit margin. About 15 cents of every sale makes its way to the bottom line. Fair Isaac said it expects to earning $1.83 a share for its fiscal year, which ends in September. That means that FIC is trading for about 21 times earnings.

  I’m exactly sure how to categorize Fair Isaac. It’s not really a tech stock, nor is it financial services. The stock struggled last year, but seems to be back on track. The company has a market value of about $2.5 billion and it’s a member of the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index.