Archive for August, 2005

  • Buy Du
    , August 5th, 2005 at 2:20 pm

    I think this is what’s called “irony.” The U.S. political establishment goes nuts over CNOOC trying to buy Unocal. But one tiny Chinese search engine goes public, and Americans throw gobs of money at it.

    Baidu, the Chinese search engine company, hit the Street today. At least for a few moments today, the 90’s were back. This was the easily the hottest IPO since Google went public last summer. Baidu’s offering price range was raised twice. The shares finally hit the open market at $27.

    The first trade: $66. And it went up from there. The high trade today (so far) is $99.50.

    Baidu is unstoppable. I can’t even think of a good metaphor. It’s like some mighty ocean-going vessel, steaming its way through the chilly North Atlantic. What can possibly stop it?

  • Bonds Fall Again
    , August 5th, 2005 at 10:24 am

    The 10-year Treasury bond is getting slammed today. The yield is now up to 4.382%. That’s nearly 50 basis points higher than it was in June. The yield curve has been squished. The 10-year is up more today than the 30-year, and the 5-year is up more than both.

    The futures market has little doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 0.25% at next week’s meeting, and again at the September 20 meeting. That will bring the fed funds rate up to 3.75%. There’s also an 88% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates up to 4% by November 1.

  • Today’s Jobs Report
    , August 5th, 2005 at 10:01 am

    The government reported that the unemployment rate for July was 5.0%, which was the same as June’s. Relatively speaking, that’s a pretty low number. The unemployment rate peaked at 6.3% in June of 2003. While the jobless rate has fallen since then, it was stuck around 5.4% for much of last year.

    The economy created 207,000 new jobs last month, which was higher than expectations. The number of new jobs for June was revised higher to 166,000. For the last 17 months, the economy has created an average of about 195,000 jobs a month. That’s good, but it’s still well below what the economy did in the recoveries of the 80s and 90s. The economy averaged over 250,000 jobs for a 90-month period from November 1992 to May 2000.

    Wall Street seems to be impressed by the current economy. We’re hearing talk that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates into next year. Also, some analysts are raising their GDP forecasts for next quarter.

  • Lindsey in Running Fed Chairman
    , August 4th, 2005 at 4:47 pm

    The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House is also considering Lawrence Lindsey to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve. For several months, it was assumed that the three major candidates were Martin Feldstein, Glenn Hubbard and Ben Bernanke.

    Who’s the frontrunner? I like to watch the numbers at TradeSports, which let’s users buy “futures” on real world events. According to their market, Bernanke is in the lead at 38%. Feldstein is second at 28%, and Lindsey is third at 20% (up 2% today).

  • Just Do It!
    , August 3rd, 2005 at 4:24 pm

    The latest craze of foreigners buying second-rate American companies continues. Now, the Germans have gotten into the act. Adidas Salomon will annex Reebok for $3.8 billion.

    The claim is that this is a move to compete with Nike. I’m sorry, but they’re worried about this now! You’re at least a decade too late. Over the last 18 years, Reebox’s stock is up 184%. Nike’s stock is up 3,300%. Is Nike supposed to be scared now?

    All the top athletes are with Nike (Tiger Woods, Lance Armstrong). In fact, Nike is even moving into Adidas’ traditional territory of soccer. The Wall Street Journal notes:

    Nike has signed up prominent European soccer teams such as Manchester United and Arsenal. More broadly, Nike has been in acquisition mode, diversifying beyond its core of running and basketball shoes to buy brands such as Converse, Cole Haan and Official Starter Properties.

  • Requiem for CNOOC/Unocal
    , August 3rd, 2005 at 3:53 pm

    The New York Times looks at the demise of the CNOOC/Unocal deal. I think they get it right. This was a case of transferring legitimate political grudges onto a deal that was completely legitimate.

    Many economists, while not necessarily disputing that claim, would still say that the political reaction was far out of proportion to the case.
    They are particularly dubious about arguments that Cnooc’s bid would have jeopardized national security, noting that oil is a globally traded commodity and that Unocal’s reserves contributed only about 1 percent of American oil consumption.

    Let’s hope that the floating of the Yuan has helped relieve some of the tension. Although it looks like we have more ground to cover.

    China is likely to let the yuan gain 5 percent against the dollar by 2007, not enough to slow its economy or end U.S. criticism that the nation has an unfair trade advantage, according to a Bloomberg survey.
    The People’s Bank of China will allow the yuan to reach 7.7 per dollar, based on the median forecast of 37 traders, strategists and investors. The central bank let its currency rise 2.1 percent on July 21 after a decade of being pegged at about 8.3 to the U.S. currency.
    Additional appreciation of 5 percent is unlikely to appease lawmakers such as U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, who said last month’s shift was a first step and the currency remains undervalued.

  • CIBC to pay $2.4 bln to Enron investors
    , August 3rd, 2005 at 1:12 pm

    Nowadays, people like to pretend that Enron existed all by itself. But in reality, the energy-trading firm had several accomplices. CIBC, for example, helped Enron in several bogus accounting scams. The bank has now agreed to pay $2.4 billion to Enron’s shareholders. This is only the beginning. Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling will go on trial in January.

  • Return of the 30-Year Bond
    , August 3rd, 2005 at 1:05 pm

    The Treasury Department announced today that it’s bringing back the 30-year Treasury bond. That’s what happens when you borrow lots of money. What will be interesting to see is if the 30-year becomes the bellwether bond again

  • CNOOC Says See Ya
    , August 2nd, 2005 at 11:57 am

    Now, it’s official. CNOOC is walking away from Unocal, and their taking their money with them. The Chinese company had outbid ChevronTexaco for Unocal by offering $18.5 billion (all cash). But CNOOC finally got fed up with the posturing from American politicians who feared an Asian company buying our Asian oil. The Chinese Communists have been through the Long March, the human waves of the Korean War, but our bureaucracy was simply too much to bear.

    The irony is that CNOOC was simply paying too much, but that’s their right. If we don’t let the communists pay too much for our companies, they’ll stop paying too much for our debt. And that’s what’s happening. The market seems genuinely surprised that we’ve been getting good news about inflation and debt financing, yet interest rates are going up. I’m not surprised, and this is just the beginning of higher rates.

  • You Are So Done With Us
    , August 2nd, 2005 at 10:50 am

    Gretchen Morgenson takes on corporations that bully analysts. The best nugget is this e-mail from Douglas P. Smith, the CFO of Mercury Interactive, to a wayward analyst:

    Why don’t I just call you up and get my weekly forecast update. This is just so over the top in terms of National Enquirer journalism. Not to mention being filled with numerous factual errors and misrepresentations. Since you seem to believe that you have a reliable and trustworthy ‘mole’ inside of Mercury, then I see no reason for you to have any other relations with the rest of our company. You are so done with us. See ya, Doug Smith

    Charming fellow, no?