Betting on Zarqawi’s Demise

Tradesports is a Web site where you can buy futures contracts on real world events. As you may have heard, there are several unconfirmed reports that Mr. Zarqawi just got his ass blown up.
Here’s how the contract for “captured or neutralized by December 31” has been trading.

Something’s definitely up. I’m rooting for neutralized.
What I find fascinating is that even when we don’t have a lot of hard news, the market is an excellent mechanism for analyzing and prioritizing information very quickly.
Update: It looks like it’s not true.

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 20th, 2005 at 5:39 pm

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.