The Hidden Bull

This came as a surprise to me but the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index (^CMR) is right at an all-time high. Earlier this year, the index took out its 2000 high, and it’s been slowly crawling higher ever since.
Ironically, today’s report on consumer confidence showed that it dropped to a three-month low. According to the AP, “Economists blamed the deterioration in confidence mostly on galloping energy prices and a cooling in the once-hot housing market.”
That may be true, but it’s not showing up in the shares of consumer stocks. Despite Wall Street’s sour mood, it’s important to remember that the market’s troubles since early-May have largely been confined to cyclical stocks (industrials, materials and technology in particular). Transportation stocks, like Expeditors (EXPD), have been especially ugly lately.
We often talk about the stock market as if it’s one big stock that’s traded every day, but there are thousands of stocks in dozens of industries. Difficult markets don’t affect all stocks the same way.
Health care has been a little unusual. Normally, health care moves with the other consumer stocks, but the sector starting dropping in March. The good news, however, is that health care seem to be making up lost ground.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is finally showing some life. I try not to be surprised by what I see the market do, but seeing these shares drop below $32 did catch me off guard.
Next week, we’ll have a few more earnings reports from our Buy List stocks. Sysco (SYY) reports on Monday. Home Depot (HD) on Tuesday, and Dell (DELL) on Thursday. Medtronic (MDT) reports the following Tuesday.

Posted by on August 11th, 2006 at 9:57 am


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.