Convergencification

Step aside: The bond market is rolling today. The yield on the 10-year bond (^TNX) just fell below 4.65%, and the yield on the 30-year (^TYX) fell below 4.78%.
Here’s some perspective: The 10-year is now 60 basis points below Bernanke.
But there’s something else that’s been happening. The stock and bond markets have converged.
For most of this spring, the stock and bond markets moved in completely opposite directions. If bonds zigged, stocks zagged. Check out this chart of the S&P 500 Spyders (SPY) and the American Century 2025 Fund (BTTRX):

They’re almost like mirror images.
But in early June, everything changed. The two markets suddenly converged, and started to move like waltzing partners:

What happened is the fight for capital changed. It was stocks against bonds. Then the paper assets decided to team up and kick the ass of real assets like gold and oil (think Rocky III):

The gold line is the Oil ETF (USO).

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on September 21st, 2006 at 2:51 pm

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.