Archive for January, 2007

  • The Do Something Congress
    , January 2nd, 2007 at 1:26 pm

    Andrew Roth of the Club for Growth ran the numbers on 2006. When Congress was in session, the S&P 500 went up 2.25%. On days when it wasn’t it session, it went up 11.56%.

    So you’re probably asking yourself, “Was this just coincidental?” The cynics out there would say no. And the cynics would be right. Long term empirical evidence says that correlation does, in fact, mean causation. According to two economists, Mike Ferguson of the University of Cincinnati and Hugh Douglas Witte of the University of Missouri at Columbia, if you had invested $1 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average back in 1897 when the index first started and conducted the In/Out Session schemes until the year 2000, here’s how much money you would have:
    In Session: $2
    Out Session: $216

  • “Cautiously Optimistic”
    , January 2nd, 2007 at 11:12 am

    One of my favorite media phrases is “cautiously optimistic.” It means nothing while it sounds important. Can you think of a situation where it wouldn’t apply? (Apocalypse to Strike Earth, Experts Cautiously Optimistic). See! You can’t go wrong.
    A few years ago, Neil Westergaard wrote:

    What a great all-purpose, meaningless qualifier to keep from looking stupid. It’s much better than just saying “I don’t know.” It implies that that the person really does know something important, but is being conservative and careful in the distribution of information, holding back the unverifiable facts for the good of the republic.
    Or covering their behinds.
    “Cautiously optimistic.” If the economy goes into the dumper again, we can say our earlier caution was warranted. If things pick up, we were right to be optimistic and “knew it all along.”

    Which brings me to today’s New York Times:

    Economists Cautiously Optimistic About 2007

    I hope they’re right.

  • How Will the Dow do in 2007?
    , January 2nd, 2007 at 10:58 am

    The new-and-improved Wall Street Journal asks its reader how will the Dow do in 2007?
    Here are the results as of 11 a.m.:
    Up more than 10%…………………..24%
    Up 5% to 10%………………………..45%
    Up less than 5%……………………..15%
    Down less than 5%…………………..4%
    Down 5% to 10%……………………..5%
    Down more than 10%………………..7%
    This stikes me as somewhat conservative.

  • Happy New Year!
    , January 1st, 2007 at 12:08 am

    818,304 visitors for 2006.
    Thank you all!