Archive for September, 2007

  • Dollar Sinks to Record Low Against Euro
    , September 13th, 2007 at 11:11 am

    The greenback continues to fall (and fall and fall):

    The dollar briefly sank to a record low against the euro on Thursday for a second successive day amid speculation that the U.S. central bank will cut interest rates amid turbulence in financial markets.
    The euro rose to $1.3927, topping the record $1.3914 reached the previous day. It then settled back to $1.3887 in early afternoon European trading and was below the $1.3908 it bought late Wednesday in New York.
    A higher euro makes goods from the 13-nation euro zone more expensive for customers elsewhere, and cuts into manufacturers’ profits if they try to keep the dollar price of products constant. While it makes U.S. exports cheaper, it cuts the spending power of Americans visiting Europe.
    The euro has benefited from healthy economic news in the euro zone and the European Central Bank’s campaign of gradual interest rate increases.
    However, its current strength is widely seen primarily as a result of problems afflicting the dollar.
    The subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. and signs of economic frailty, particularly weak August jobs data, have prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as much as half a percentage point next week from the current 5.25 percent.

  • When Investor Activism Doesn’t Pay
    , September 13th, 2007 at 9:48 am

    Shareholder activism has become quite a buzzword in recent years. But a recent study found that it’s not always such a good idea:

    The study by a Harvard Business School assistant professor, Robin Greenwood, and Michael Schor, a former student, found that activist funds are like a boxer with one punch: They are most successful when they prod managers to put a company up for sale. Shares of the target company typically rise, and all shareholders benefit.
    But the authors found that activist investors have much less impact when a targeted company isn’t sold. In those cases, the study found there is little change in the next 18 months in the company’s stock price or financial results. That is true even when the company takes steps recommended by the activists, such as firing the chief executive, buying back stock or adding new directors.
    “The money is in getting the target acquired,” Mr. Greenwood says. “The ones that don’t end up getting acquired don’t end up with much of anything.”

    That’s an interesting view and I’m not terribly surprised. Carl Icahn didn’t get much from Time Warner. I would also think that shareholder activism would have some effect on closely-hold companies, especially by families (like Dow Jones). That’s just my hunch but I think you would find greater complacency there.

  • Oil Hits $80
    , September 12th, 2007 at 3:26 pm

    Oil hit an all-time high today of $80.18. But adjusted for inflation, we still have more to go.

    Prices rose from 1979 through 1981 after Iran cut oil exports. The average cost of oil used by U.S. refiners was $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today’s dollars.

  • Jos A Bank’s Earnings
    , September 12th, 2007 at 11:11 am

    Jos A Bank Clothiers (JOSB), the most erratic stock on our Buy List, just released very good second-quarter earnings. Sales rose 12% to $119 million and EPS came in at 44 cents a share which is a nice improvement over the 38 cents from last year. Wall Street was looking for 42 cents a share.
    Actually, breaking down the numbers, JOSB earned 44.49 cents per share. If they earned just $2,000 more, the number would round up to 45 cents per share.
    I’ve always noticed a tendency for EPS reports to come in at a number just about 0.5 so it can round higher. There’s probably some research report waiting to be written here (grad students take note). I’ll give JOSB credit for not trying to massage their earnings higher.
    All in all, this seems be a good report. I’ll have to dig through the numbers later. I added the stock at the beginning of the year and for awhile it seemed like a brilliant move on my part. The stock had been at over $48 and I was adding it at the year-end price of $29.35. By June, the stock had climbed back to $45. Since then, the stock has fallen all the way back to where it was. Fortunately, JOSB is doing well today.

  • What Should the Fed Funds Rate Be?
    , September 11th, 2007 at 2:57 pm

    Harvard Econ Professor (and blogger) Greg Mankiw came up with a nifty equation of determining what the Fed Funds rate ought to be.

    Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 (Core inflation – Unemployment)

    In July, the unemployment rate was 4.647%. The core CPI was 2.210%. That translates to a Fed Funds rate of 5.088%, which is below where the Fed is now. Here’s a look at how the Mankiw Rate compares with the real Fed Funds rate over the past few years.
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    One small problem with this method is lag. The latest month we have data for is July. The August CPI will be coming out next week. (I also had a minor technical criticism of Mankiw’s equation.)

  • Orphan Stocks
    , September 11th, 2007 at 2:11 pm

    I’m a big fan of orphan stocks. These are companies with little or no analyst coverage.
    Last year, I highlighted three of my favorite banks with zero analysts following them. Since then, all three banks were bought out.
    It doesn’t take much to get a good idea of how well business is going. The filings have all the details.
    DealBook highlights a study on why firms get little coverage. Surprise, it’s because they don’t provide the investment banking income.

  • Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
    , September 11th, 2007 at 11:38 am

    ADP is starting to catch my eye as a good contrarian stock. (The first step, however, is to ignore their notoriously inaccurate monthly employment reports.)

    The stock is down to $44 from $50 in early June. I’m not claiming any great insight on its business, but it’s simply a good stock at a good price. In the last three years, earnings are up 56%. Gross margins are around 50% and the company has a solid balance sheet.

    The company also raised guidance for FY 08. ADP is now looking for 12% sales growth and profit growth of 18% to 21%. I like those numbers.
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  • Looking at Spinoffs
    , September 11th, 2007 at 10:34 am

    Here’s an interesting look at spinoffs I saw in the WSJ from a few months ago:

    Recent spinoffs have seen their shares drop more sharply than the historical trend: Spinoffs typically fall in the first month, recover by the third and start outperforming the market after six months. This happens as more analysts start covering the companies, and the spinoffs’ management teams, no longer part of big empires where attention and capital are often spread thin — are able to expand the businesses more aggressively.
    A Thomson Financial study of 200 spinoffs going back to 1996 bears this out. The median stock sank 2.1% one month after its spinoff, but then inched up 1.6% after three months. In six months, the median rose 8.2%, and it climbed 12.7% within 12 months. In the smaller sample of 83 businesses spun off from S&P 500 companies, the average share price was 37.3% higher in 12 months, beating the index’s 10-year average return of 6.7%.

    I’m not surprised by the initial underperformance, but I doubt the rebound is due to the sudden realization that management can do whatever it wants. I think the initial drop is simply due to a high price set by the parent and a flood of selling by shareholders.
    All things being equal, I look favorably at spin-offs. But there must be something worthy of spinning off before we can throw the usual hype about management no longer being constrained.
    For example, Eaton Vance (EV) spun-off Investors Financial Services (IFIN) and both stocks have been remarkable performers. In fact, IFIN was recently bought out at a very rich premium. Don’t jump at every spin-off. I think DNA matters more than people realize.

  • Wall Strip on Tim Hortons
    , September 11th, 2007 at 10:03 am

  • Crossing Wall Street Six Years Ago
    , September 11th, 2007 at 8:48 am

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