Gold and Iran

I’m curious how much the National Intelligence Estimate’s report that Iran suspended its nuclear program four years ago will affect the price of gold. While gold is impacted by inflationary concerns, it’s also influenced by geo-political concerns as well.
I suspect that problems with Iran have helped boost gold, but I wonder how large the impact has been. When gold is priced in euros, its rise hasn’t been as dramatic, but it’s certainly higher.
I’m also curious if the surge in support for Ron Paul is a sign of a top for gold. When gold peaked 28 years ago, the Libertarians had their best presidential showing ever. That year, Ed Clark won close to a million votes, including 11.66% in Alaska. The Libertarians even won two statehouse seats in Alaska that year. Double-digit inflation and gold at $850 seem to be very good for the party.
Since 1980, however, the Libertarian presidential candidates have been lucky to get half what Clark did. Now Ron Paul is running in a perfect environment for Libertarians—gold is up, the dollar is way down. The crucial primary will be in New Hampshire, a state almost tailored-made for them (“Live Free or Die”).
If Paul breaks 10% in New Hampshire, then I think gold will soon plunge. And no, I’m not serious.

Posted by on December 5th, 2007 at 10:41 am


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