Archive for April, 2008

  • Perfect Logic
    , April 2nd, 2008 at 9:30 am

    My post yesterday on gold and if it’s possibly a deflating bubble elicited a number of interesting, and predictable comments from the gold bugs over at Seeking Alpha. My personal favorite came from Gigem77:

    Now let’s look at time. Gold is up 34% year over year despite the recent correction. How is the dow doing year over year?

    So gold can’t possibly be in a bubble. The reason: Because it’s up so much.

  • FT: A Hard Lesson in Bank Management
    , April 2nd, 2008 at 9:09 am

    The Financial Times looks at the UBS mess. Here are the two last two paragraphs:

    The Swiss bank’s rivals should learn, too, from its failure to identify early on the scale of its exposure to mortgage-related assets. Providing as full a disclosure as possible may well help the share price. At least, it is essential for smoother relations with investors.
    It will take years for UBS to recover from the fix it finds itself in. The new chairman must rebuild relations with investors and stabilise the bank, and find new opportunities for business, perhaps by expanding wealth management. It will be quite a task.

  • Wallstrip Does CLARCOR
    , April 1st, 2008 at 11:22 am

    Julie profiles CLARCOR (CLC), one of our Buy List stocks.

    Here’s a spreadsheet of Clarcor’s results for the past few years.

  • The End of the Gold Bubble
    , April 1st, 2008 at 10:17 am

    A few weeks ago, I wrote a post criticizing the fear the something must be done to counteract investment bubbles. I said that one of the problems is, how do we even know if we’re in a bubble? I wrote:

    How can we be sure it’s a bubble when an asset inflates? In the 1950s, stock prices soared and they never really came back down. The phrase “permanently high plateau” hasn’t had a good record since the 1920s, but I think that’s an accurate description of what happened in the 1950s.
    Is gold a bubble right now? What about oil? Or the Euro? Or could it be that we’re simply adjusting to a new era of commodity prices? I don’t know and for now, I’m happy to consider these open questions. I will note, however, that adjusted for inflation, commodity prices have historically plunged.

    Some commenters wrote that I was crazy (as they often do) because it was perfectly obvious (in all caps) that we were in a credit bubble. But no one addressed my concerns that we could be in a gold bubble. In fact, come said that we’re certainly not because of…well, the standard bullish arguments for gold.
    Now it looks like gold’s run may be coming to an end. Again, I’m not saying it is, but look at what’s happening. As I writing this, the contract for June gold is down to $892. That’s a huge drop just in the last two weeks.
    june%20gold%204-1-2008.png

  • W.R. Berkley to Change Ticker Symbol
    , April 1st, 2008 at 9:54 am

    Here’s a heads-up to BER shareholders. In two weeks, W.R. Berkley Corp. will change its ticker symbol from “WRB” from “BER.” This is the second ticker symbol change for a stock on our Buy List. In 2006, Harley-Davidson switched from HDI to HOG.
    I like HOG a lot better. Personally, I’m a big fan of the fun tickers. Here’s a list of my favorites:
    1. (BUD) Anheuser-Busch
    2. (WOOF) VCA Antech (veterinary services)
    3. (BOOM) Dynamic Materials
    4. (FIZ) National Beverage
    5. (LVB) Steinway Musical Instruments (in honor of Ludwig Van Beethoven)
    6. (ZEUS) Olympic Steel
    7. (CHUX) O’Charley’s Inc.
    8. (TAP) Molson Coors Brewing
    9. (BID) Sotheby’s Holdings
    10. (LENS) Concord Camera