Archive for December, 2008

• Despite Bailout, Market Thinks GM Is a Goner
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 23rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm

  I think the government ought to pay attention to the market on this one.

  GM dropped as much as 18 percent today in New York trading to extend yesterday’s 22 percent plunge, while credit-default swaps on GM bonds rose 0.5 percentage point in a sign of increasing concern that the Bush administration’s bailout may end in a default.
  The stock-price slide erased the 23 percent gain on Dec. 19, when Detroit-based GM received a federal aid package to help the automaker stay in business until March 31 while it crafts a plan to shut plants, shed brands and reduce debt.
  “It’s almost impossible for a management that invested in the assets, that hired the people, that put forth the strategy, to change so dramatically in such a short period of time,” Edward Altman, a New York University finance professor who created the Z-score formula to measure bankruptcy risk, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
  There is a “high” likelihood of a GM bankruptcy, Standard & Poor’s said yesterday in reducing the rating on the company’s unsecured debt to C, or 11 grades below investment quality. Robert Schulz, an S&P analyst in New York, said creditors can expect “negligible recovery” should the automaker default.
  GM has slashed output and won union concessions since saying Nov. 7 it may run out of operating cash by year’s end. The automaker said it would need as much as $18 billion in aid or face a possible bankruptcy.

• How it Happened
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 22nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm

  The Onion explains it all:
  

• This Doesn’t Look Good
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 22nd, 2008 at 4:01 pm

  Man found dead hanging by his belt in British hotel.
  Did I mention that he was naked? Or the head of insurance at HSBC?
  “His death is being treated as non-suspicious.”
  Speak for yourself.

• Bernie’s Cribs
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 22nd, 2008 at 12:16 pm

  Nice. Very nice.
  

• TED Spreads Narrow
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 22nd, 2008 at 12:06 pm

  TED spreads are at their narrowest since before Lehman went under.

  The TED spread, a gauge of banks’ willingness to lend, slipped below 150 basis points for the first time since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. amid speculation U.S. borrowing costs near zero and promises of further government cash will help unfreeze credit.
  The spread, the difference between what banks and the U.S. government pay to borrow money, narrowed as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans fell and Treasury borrowing costs rose. The Libor dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.47 percent, the British Bankers’ Association said today. The rate on the three-month Treasury bill added rose basis points to minus 0.009 percent.
  “There are expectations central banks will keep liquidity in the market and we have more or less a zero rate in the U.S., so over time the fixings should ease off,” said Jan Misch, a money-market trader in Stuttgart at Landesbank Baden- Wuerttemberg, Germany’s biggest state-owned lender. “After the turn of the New Year we should see a softening of these rates.”
  Central banks are pumping money into the financial system to combat the worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Credit markets, which seized up after Lehman’s bankruptcy, remain locked amid almost $1 trillion in losses and writedowns tied to mortgage-related securities. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to as low as zero last week and said it will flood the economy with cash.

  

• Slowly I Return
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 19th, 2008 at 2:32 pm

  Once again, let me apologize for the lack of blogging this week. I can’t remember the last time I knocked so hard by ill-health.
  I wish I could say I did a lot of reading this week, but almost all I did was sleep. I’m feeling much better, and I want to thank everyone who sent their regards. I plan to be up to full-speed soon.
  There’s one item I felt I had to mention and that’s the passing of the great Irish journalist Conor Cruise O’Brien. What an extraordinary life he led. This is part of the obit from the Telegraph:

  Conor Cruise O’Brien, who has died aged 91, was the leading Irish intellectual of his generation, though he assumed so many guises – diplomatist, historian, literary critic, proconsul, professor, playwright, government minister, columnist and editor – that he defies further categorisation.
  His views were as variable as his career. At one time responsible for Irish government propaganda which peddled an irredentist Republican policy on Northern Ireland, he later became a campaigning unionist and the bête noire of Sinn Fein and the IRA.
  Critics charged that he was more interested in exercising his intellectual sinews than in resolving difficulties. But his recognition that the divisions in Ireland were rooted in two irreconcilable traditions led to increasing isolation within his own country, and required considerable moral – and occasionally physical – courage.
  Equally, his awareness that the problems of South Africa had no easy answers, and his determined support for Israel, cut him off from the Left, with which he had once been associated. Yet O’Brien never drifted, in the conventional way, from Left to Right. Rather he remained consistently radical in his willingness to bring a fresh mind to bear on issues normally treated with entrenched prejudice.

• Lack of Posts
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 18th, 2008 at 2:09 pm

  I have to apologize for the dearth of posts this week. I haven’t been feeling well. I hope to return to full blog-mode soon.

• Quote of the Day
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 17th, 2008 at 12:23 pm

  In modern business it is not the crook who is to be feared most, it is the honest man who doesn’t know what he is doing.
  – William Wordsworth

• Bernie’s Victims
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 15th, 2008 at 8:06 pm

  Clusterstock has a slideshow.

• SEC v. National Lampoon
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 15th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

  
  From the SEC’s website:

  SEC v. National Lampoon, Inc. et al.
  Defendants: National Lampoon, Inc., headquartered in Los Angeles, California, is a media and entertainment company that develops, produces and distributes media projects including feature films, television programming, online and interactive entertainment, home video, and book publishing. The company produced such widely known films as National Lampoon’s Animal House, and the National Lampoon Vacation series. National Lampoon’s common stock is registered with the Commission and is listed on the NYSE Alternext, formerly the American Stock Exchange (“AMEX”). Daniel S. Laikin, of Los Angeles, California, has been the Chief Executive Officer of National Lampoon since 2005. Laikin controls approximately 40 percent of the voting stock of National Lampoon. Dennis S. Barsky, of Las Vegas, Nevada, is a consultant to National Lampoon, and a significant stockholder. Eduardo Rodriguez, of Livingston, New Jersey, is a stock promoter. Tim Dougherty, of Webster, New York, is a stock promoter and principal of OTC Advisors, Inc., a stock promotion company.
  The Commission’s complaint alleges that, from at least March 2008 through June 2008, Laikin, Barsky, Rodriguez and Dougherty engaged in a fraudulent scheme to manipulate the market for the common stock of National Lampoon. Specifically, Laikin, along with Barsky, paid kickbacks in exchange for generating or causing purchases of National Lampoon stock to Rodriguez, a corrupt stock promoter, and the CW, whom Laikin, Barsky and Rodriguez believed had connections to corrupt registered representatives. As part of this scheme, Dougherty generated purchases of National Lampoon stock in exchange for a portion of the kickbacks. Dougherty made his purchases over the course of a number of days and used various accounts to give the false impression of a steady demand for the stock.
  The complaint alleges that Laikin and Barsky paid at least $68,000 that went to Rodriguez, Dougherty, and the CW to cause the purchase of at least 87,500 shares of National Lampoon stock. Through these efforts, Laikin and Barsky sought to artificially push National Lampoon’s stock price from under $2 per share to at least $5 per share, in part, to keep the company’s stock price above the minimum listing requirements of the AMEX, and to increase National Lampoon’s ability to enter into possible “strategic partnerships” and acquisitions. In addition to paying others to purchase the stock, Laikin shared confidential financial information regarding National Lampoon, non-public news releases, and confidential shareholder lists, and coordinated the release of news with the illegal purchases in the stock. Barsky helped direct the purchases and facilitated the kickback payments. National Lampoon and Laikin also made materially misleading statements in a tender offer.
  The complaint alleges violations of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 9(a)(2), 10(b) and 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rules 10b-5 and 13e-4 thereunder. The complaint seeks permanent injunctions against all defendants, disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, together with prejudgment interest, and civil penalties, from the individual defendants, and an officer and director bar against Laikin.

  (H/T: Kedrosky)