Archive for January, 2009

  • Worst Hoax Ever
    , January 22nd, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    Dude, if you’re going to be a jerk, at least get a copy-editor.

  • Strong Earnings from Baxter
    , January 22nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    Baxter International (BAX), one of the new stocks on my Buy List, posted decent earnings for the fourth quarter. Earnings-per-share came in at 91 cents, two cents ahead of the Street’s estimate. The company sees 2009 EPS ranging from $3.70 to $3.78. That could be on the low side.

    JP Morgan analyst Michael Weinstein wrote in a research note. “To put this in perspective, at the start of 2008, management provided initial guidance of $3.10 to 3.18 a share, yet ended up delivering $3.38.”

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  • AFLAC’s Hybrids
    , January 22nd, 2009 at 11:44 am

    The problems in the British banking sector have spread back across the Atlantic to strike our very own AFLAC (AFL). The stock is getting crushed today on concerns about its losses in UK bank investments. Like a lot of insurance companies, AFLAC invests in perpetual debenture investments or “hybrid securities,” and an analyst is worried about the losses they’ve taken in banks like Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS or Barclays.
    Morgan Stanley said, ”If even a small portion of these losses are realized, the hit to Aflac’s capital ratios could be substantial, and their overall capital adequacy could be significantly less than most investors believe.”
    Barron’s notes:

    According to Morgan, Aflac has nearly $8 billion exposure to hybrid securities, with as much as 80% of this exposure to European financial services companies, including Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Barclays (BCS), both of whose solvency has become a subject of open conjecture amid talk that the British Treasury might nationalize some of its financial institutions.
    Some of the hybrid securities products have declined as much as 30% in just the past week, so that many have traded at less than 50 cents on the dollar. It’s these losses, that, if realized, would hurt Aflac’s capital adequacy.

    The stock opened down 11% but it’s slid all morning. At one point, AFL was down 39% for the day. In the most recent 10-Q, AFLAC discussed some of the accounting issues involved in their hybrids:

    Securities and Exchange Commission Guidance: On October 14, 2008, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a letter to the FASB addressing recent questions raised by various interested parties regarding declines in the fair value of perpetual preferred securities, or so-called “hybrid securities,” which have both debt and equity characteristics and the assessment of those declines under existing accounting guidelines for other-than-temporary impairments. In its letter, the SEC recognized that hybrid securities are often structured in equity form but generally possess significant debt-like characteristics. The SEC also recognized that existing accounting guidance does not specifically address the impact, if any, of the debt-like characteristics of these hybrid securities on the assessment of other-than-temporary impairments.
    After consultation with and concurrence of the FASB staff, the SEC concluded that it will not object to the use of an other-than-temporary impairment model that considers the debt-like characteristics of hybrid securities (including the anticipated recovery period), provided there has been no evidence of a deterioration in credit of the issuer (for example, a decline in the cash flows from holding the investment or a downgrade of the rating of the security below investment grade), in filings after the date of its letter until the matter can be addressed further by the FASB.
    As more fully discussed in Note 3 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements, in light of the recent unprecedented volatility in the debt and equity markets, we have concluded that all of our investments in perpetual debentures, or hybrid securities, should be classified as available-for-sale securities. We have also concluded that our perpetual debentures should be evaluated for other-than-temporary impairments using an equity security impairment model as opposed to our previous policy of using a debt security impairment model until further guidance is provided by the SEC and the FASB. We recognized realized investment losses of $294 million ($191 million after tax) in the third quarter of 2008 as a result of applying our equity impairment model to this class of securities. The impact of classifying all of our perpetual debentures as available for sale and assessing them for other-than-temporary impairments under our equity impairment model was determined to be immaterial to our results of operations and financial position for any previously reported period.

    AFLAC has said that it’s “comfortable” with its capital position. Earnings are due on Monday, February 4.

  • Political Interference in Bank Bailout Decisions
    , January 22nd, 2009 at 11:10 am

    I’m shocked! Absolutely shocked something like this could happen:

    Troubled OneUnited Bank in Boston didn’t look much like a candidate for aid from the Treasury Department’s bank bailout fund last fall.
    The Treasury had said it would give money only to healthy banks, to jump-start lending. But OneUnited had seen most of its capital evaporate. Moreover, it was under attack from its regulators for allegations of poor lending practices and executive-pay abuses, including owning a Porsche for its executives’ use.
    Nonetheless, in December OneUnited got a $12 million injection from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. One apparent factor: the intercession of Rep. Barney Frank, the powerful head of the House Financial Services Committee.
    Mr. Frank, by his own account, wrote into the TARP bill a provision specifically aimed at helping this particular home-state bank. And later, he acknowledges, he spoke to regulators urging that OneUnited be considered for a cash injection.

    The WSJ has a nice graphic showing the distribution of TARP funds.

  • Parsons Named Chairman of Citigroup
    , January 21st, 2009 at 5:51 pm

    Remember George W. Bush? Me neither, but once he said that “Wall Street got drunk.”
    Few folks got more boozed than the kids down at Citigroup (C). The good news is that Dick Parsons has been named as their new chairman.
    The irony, of course, is that Parsons is a vinter. No seriously. Naturally, here’s the family crest.

  • The House of Commons Is a Tough Crowd
    , January 21st, 2009 at 5:23 pm


    (Via: Paul K)

  • This Day in Gold History
    , January 21st, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    From This Day in Market History:

    On January 21, 1974, gold hit a record $161.31 and silver hit a record $3.97 an ounce in London. It was still illegal for Americans to own the metal, until it was legalized on the last day of 1974.
    On Monday, January 21, 1980, gold hit $850 an ounce, a level it would not exceed for the next 28 years. Gold was over $800 for only one day back then, and it was over $700 for only three or four days. This daily spike to $850 was gold’s one-day bull market peak, a typical “spike” peak.

  • Apple’s Earnings
    , January 21st, 2009 at 5:17 pm

    Here’s a quick follow-up on my previous post. Apple’s Q4 net came in at $1.78 a share. Sheesh, their guidance is a joke. I’ve always known it’s a joke, but come on.
    Apple said to expect a range of $1.06 to $1.35. That’s not even in the ballpark. Sorry, guys. You got to have some credibility here.

    For the quarter ended Dec. 27, traditionally the best of the year because it includes the holiday season, the maker of computers and electronic devices reported net income of $1.61 billion, or $1.78 a share, up from $1.58 billion, or $1.76 a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, earnings were $2.56 a share.
    Revenue rose 5.8% to $10.17 billion, with 54% of sales in the U.S.
    In October, the iPod and iPhone maker predicted per-share earnings of $1.06 to $1.35 on revenue of $9 billion to $10 billion. Analysts’ latest estimates were for per-share earnings of $1.39 on revenue of $9.75 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. Gross margin was flat at 34.7%.
    Apple sold 2.5 million Macintosh computers in the latest quarter, up 9% from a year earlier and in line with estimates. The company sold 22.7 million iPod media players, up 3% and far exceeding Wall Street’s expectations.
    It also sold 4.4 million iPhones, 88% more than a year earlier but slightly less that Wall Street expected. The iPhone was launched in the U.S. in June 2007, the second-generation iPhone 3G went on sale last July, and sales started in about 30 more countries last fall. Last last month, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it will begin selling the iPhone 3G in a partnership that could boost Apple’s effort to gain share in the cellphone business.

    The company said to expect Q2 EPS of 90 cents to $1. Yeah, right.

  • TARP Application
    , January 21st, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Just in case anybody needs this.

  • Jobs that Americans Won’t Do
    , January 21st, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    Mexican billionaire invests in the New York Times:

    A Latin American billionaire looks to expand his empire in the United States in a deal that could make him the largest shareholder of The New York Times Co.
    The $250 million investment by Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim could provide some synergies with his telecommunications holdings in Latin America, analysts say.
    Perhaps more importantly, Slim, reputed to be the world’s second-richest man, would gain the prestige of owning one of the world’s best-known and most influential newspapers.
    “By having a stake in the New York Times, he’s basically projecting himself as a powerbroker in this country, regardless of how his investment does,” said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, a senior associate of the Center For Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.