What’s the Difference Between a Recession and a Depression?

Hebert Hoover used the word “depression” instead of “panic” to describe the events of his administration. Since then, there’s been a battle to define what’s a recession and what’s a depression. Most seem to define a depression as a 10% drop in GDP. The Economist says that it’s “a decline in real GDP that exceeds 10%, or one that lasts more than three years.”

America’s Great Depression qualifies on both counts, with GDP falling by around 30% between 1929 and 1933. Output also fell by 13% during 1937 and 1938. The Great Depression was America’s deepest economic slump (excluding those related to wars), but at 43 months it was not the longest: that dubious honour goes to the one in 1873-79, which lasted 65 months.
Japan’s “lost decade” in the 1990s was not a depression, according to these criteria, because the largest peak-to-trough decline in real GDP was only 3.4%, over the two years to March 1999. Since the second world war, only one developed economy has suffered a drop in GDP of more than 10%: Finland’s contracted by 11% during the three years to 1993, mainly thanks to the collapse of the Soviet Union, then its biggest trading partner.
Emerging economies, however, have been much more depression-prone. Among the 25 emerging economies covered each week in the back pages of The Economist, there have been no fewer than 13 instances in the past 30 years of a decline in real GDP of more than 10%. Argentina and Poland were afflicted twice. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand all suffered double-digit drops in output during the Asian crisis of 1997-98, and Russia’s GDP shrank by a shocking 45% between 1990 and 1998.
The left-hand chart shows The Economist’s ranking of slumps in developed and emerging economies over the past century. It excludes those during wartime (both Germany and Japan, for example, saw output plunge by 50% or more after 1944). The depressions in Germany and France in the 1930s make it into the top 12, but not that in Britain, where GDP fell by a relatively modest 6%.

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Posted by on January 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am


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