Blast From the Past

I’ve seen bad predictions before, but…wow!

Downturn doesn’t mirror past, UCLA panelists say
By Dean Calbreath
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
March 11, 2008
UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, which previously has been ahead of the curve in forecasting the downturn of the California housing market and the resulting decline in the economy, predicted yesterday that the state and nation would not fall into a recession.
“The data don’t yet add up to a recession, and there is nothing to challenge the basic story of sluggishness that we have had for two years. Don’t worry, be happy,” said Edward Leamer, director of the forecast, the state’s best-known economic report.
Leamer and two fellow economists on the University of California Los Angeles panel – Ryan Ratcliff and Jerry Nickelsburg – say the economy does not match the models of previous recessions, when huge factory layoffs led to downturns.
Because the current situation does not match what happened in the past, they say, the state and nation probably will dodge a recession.
The UCLA economists have little company in their optimism.

At the time, the recession was already four months old.

Posted by on August 13th, 2009 at 10:17 am


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