Archive for September, 2009

  • Bernanke: Recession Probably Over
    , September 15th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

    From the AP:

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s is probably over.
    Mr. Bernanke said the economy likely is growing now, but it won’t be sufficient to prevent the unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.7 per cent, from rising.
    “The recession is very likely over at this point,” Mr. Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution.
    The Fed chief also said he is confident Congress will enact a revamp of the nation’s financial rule book to prevent a future crisis from happening.
    “I feel quite confident that a comprehensive reform will be forthcoming,” Mr. Bernanke said. It has been “too big a calamity” over the past year, with the near meltdown of the U.S. financial system, for Congress not to take action, he added.

  • Quote of the Day
    , September 15th, 2009 at 11:39 am

    From Arnold Kling:

    All of the main elements of the financial crisis were policy-driven, because of self-defeating housing policy and bank capital policy.

  • How Much Natural Gas to Buy the S&P 500
    , September 14th, 2009 at 9:13 pm

    The price of natural gas recently hit a seven-year low. As bad as it’s been, natural gas has actually outperformed the S&P 500 for many several years.
    Here’s a look at how many hundreds of cubic meters of natural gas it would take to buy the S&P 500:
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  • The Best Stocks Post Lehman
    , September 14th, 2009 at 7:45 pm

    Bespoke lists the best performing stock S&P 500 stocks since Lehman went under:
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    There are no financials.

  • “We Will Not Go Back To the Days of Reckless Behavior and Unchecked Excess”
    , September 14th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

    The president speaks on Wall Street:
    Thank you all for being here and for your warm welcome. It’s a privilege to be in historic Federal Hall. It was here more than two centuries ago that our first Congress served and our first President was inaugurated. It was here, in the early days of our Republic, that Hamilton and Jefferson debated how best to administer a young economy and to ensure that our nation rewarded the talents and drive of its people. Two centuries later, we still grapple with these questions — questions made more acute in moments of crisis.
    It was one year ago that we experienced just such a crisis. As investors and pension-holders watched with dread and dismay, and after a series of emergency meetings often conducted in the dead of the night, several of the world’s largest and oldest financial institutions had fallen, either bankrupt, bought, or bailed out: Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Washington Mutual, Wachovia. A week before this began, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been taken over by the government. Other large firms teetered on the brink of insolvency. Credit markets froze as banks refused to lend not only to families and businesses but to one another. Five trillion dollars of Americans’ household wealth evaporated in the span of just three months.

    (more…)

  • Roubini on Lehman, Global Financial Crisis
    , September 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm

  • Non Tarp Banks Are Doing Better
    , September 14th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

    Paul R. La Monica finds that stocks that didn’t take TARP money have done better than the ones that did.

    I’ve dug up, with the help of research available on TARP tracker Bailoutsleuth.com, at least 54 publicly traded banks that explicitly refused to take part in TARP. And it’s worth pointing out that several of them are decent-sized.
    Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) and People’s United Financial (PBCT) are both in the S&P 500. Commerce Bancshares (CBSH), BOK Financial (BOKF) and NY Community Bancorp (NYB) are among the 50 largest banks in the country as ranked by assets, according to figures from the Federal Reserve.
    That’s interesting considering many big-bank executives argued that they only took TARP funds because they were strong-armed into do it and thought not taking the cash would make them look weak and unworthy of government support. That justification sounds pretty bogus now.
    Consider this: Shares of the 54 banks that didn’t want a bailout are, on average, down just 16% since last September. That’s compared to a 30% drop for the KBW Bank Index and 36% plunge for the S&P Regional Bank Index.

    That’s not all. The non-TARPers are expected to see a 17% jump in profits this year, plus their dividend yield now stands at 3.3%.

  • Eli Lilly Announces Reorg
    , September 14th, 2009 at 9:49 am

    Eli Lilly (LLY) announced a major reorganization effort today. In an effort to cut costs, the company will organize itself into five different business units. Lilly will also pare back thousands of jobs.
    Lilly said that its goal is to cut cost by $1 billion a year and to have 35,000 employees by the end of 2011. That’s a reduction of about 5,500 from today.
    I’m not terribly impressed when companies announced cost-cutting initiatives. Shouldn’t they be trying to cut costs all the time? Too often, these announcements are just to put out good sounding press releases. The stock is up a little today so it might be working.
    While Lilly’s earnings have been good, last quarter was troubling since it came below the first-quarter’s earnings. The next earnings report may show an earnings drop over the past year. The good news is that the company reiterated its 2009’s EPS guidance of $4.20 to $4.30. Still, Lilly’s performance of late has not won my confidence.

  • Happy Birthday Maria
    , September 11th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

    The Money Honey turns 42.
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  • Crossing Wall Street Eight Years Ago
    , September 11th, 2009 at 9:04 am

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