The World Cup: How to Get Out of the First Round

The World Cup starts on Friday and I was curious as to America’s chances of making it to the knockout tournament.
Let’s go over the rules: The World Cup is divided into two parts. In the first stage, the 32 teams are divided into eight groups of four teams each. The four teams play each other in a round-robin tournament and the two teams that do the best advance to the knockout stage. In the round-robin, you get three points for a win and one point for a tie. If teams have the same number of points, the tie-breakers are (in order) goal differential, total goals, head-to-head and then they draw lots.
(I’ve only looked at the results since 1998 and they came very close to drawing lots in 2002 but ultimately didn’t need to. Paraguay edged out Slovenia 3-1 at the same time South Africa lost to Spain 3-2. Paraguay advanced on account of having scored one more goal.)
The current format started in 1998. For this year, the U.S. is in Group B which has England, Algeria and Slovenia. The quality ranking is generally considered to be England, us, Slovenia then Algeria.
So what do we need to do to advance? In the round-robin, you can score anywhere from zero to nine points (eight is mathematically impossible). Here are how the teams have done by point totals in the round-robin since the current format started in 1998:
Points……………Advancing
0…………………..0-8
1…………………..0-14
2…………………..0-6
3…………………..1-13
4…………………..7-7
5…………………..11-0
6…………………..7-0
7…………………..14-0
9…………………..8-0
The bubble seems to be four points. That’s what we got in 2002 and we made it to the knockout round. We even made it to the Final 8 after we beat Mexico. After that, we lost to Germany.
Theoretically, it’s possible to get five points and not advance, but that would be highly unusual. Conversely, it’s possible to get two points and advance. It’s possible to advance without winning a game as Chile did in 1998 (three ties). In all practical senses, if you get five points (a win and two ties), you’re in.
So if we lose to England on Saturday, we’re not out of it. Coming away with a tie would be great and a win, of course, would be spectacular. The tough games will come against Algeria and Slovenia in particular. There’s little room for error in the games you’re supposed to win. If we go 1-1-1, then our destiny may not be in our own hands.
Even if we do advance, that’s only the beginning. Here’s how the teams have done in the championship round by points scored in the round-robin:
3…………………..0-1
4…………………..4-7
5…………………..7-11
6…………………..6-7
7…………………..13-13
9…………………..15-6

Posted by on June 9th, 2010 at 12:10 pm


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