A Look at the Mid-Term Rally

The stock market has historically done very well from its low point during a mid-term election year to the high point during a presidential election year. Check out the numbers:

Mid-Term Low to Dow Jones
Election-Year High Percent Gain
1934-36 116.20%
1938-40 54.40%
1942-44 64.20%
1946-48 18.40%
1950-52 48.40%
1954-56 86.20%
1958-60 56.90%
1962-64 66.40%
1966-68 32.40%
1970-72 64.20%
1974-76 75.70%
1978-80 34.80%
1982-84 65.60%
1986-88 45.30%
1990-92 44.30%
1994-96 82.60%
1998-00 55.50%
2002-04 49.00%
2006-08 22.40%
2010-12 (to come)
Average: 57.00%

(Data via Gary Alexander)
The Dow’s lowest close (so far) this year came on July 2 at 9,686.48. A 57% rally would bring the Dow to over 15,200.

Posted by on September 1st, 2010 at 2:10 pm


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