Archive for September, 2010

  • A Look at the Mid-Term Rally
    , September 1st, 2010 at 2:10 pm

    The stock market has historically done very well from its low point during a mid-term election year to the high point during a presidential election year. Check out the numbers:

    Mid-Term Low to Dow Jones
    Election-Year High Percent Gain
    1934-36 116.20%
    1938-40 54.40%
    1942-44 64.20%
    1946-48 18.40%
    1950-52 48.40%
    1954-56 86.20%
    1958-60 56.90%
    1962-64 66.40%
    1966-68 32.40%
    1970-72 64.20%
    1974-76 75.70%
    1978-80 34.80%
    1982-84 65.60%
    1986-88 45.30%
    1990-92 44.30%
    1994-96 82.60%
    1998-00 55.50%
    2002-04 49.00%
    2006-08 22.40%
    2010-12 (to come)
    Average: 57.00%

    (Data via Gary Alexander)
    The Dow’s lowest close (so far) this year came on July 2 at 9,686.48. A 57% rally would bring the Dow to over 15,200.

  • ISM 56.3
    , September 1st, 2010 at 9:58 am

    Whew! The ISM number came in at 56.3 which was well above expectations of 53.
    I feel like we dodged a bullet here. The market should continue to rally.

  • ISM Due at 10 am
    , September 1st, 2010 at 9:29 am

    Stocks are rocking this morning, but the ISM comes out at 10 am. The Street expects 53. A negative surprise could be very nasty. I’m now hiding under my snuggie.

  • Good Earnings from Joe Bank
    , September 1st, 2010 at 8:52 am

    Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) just released a very good Q2 earnings report this morning. The company earned 59 cents a share which was six cents more than Wall Street was expecting. Let’s hope the stock gets a nice bump today.
    The details look very solid. Sales rose 12.3% and same-store sales rose 9.2%. A year ago, the company earned 45 cents a share. I’m especially glad to see that gross margins improved to 62.8% from 61.5%.
    Right now, Wall Street pegs JOSB to earn $3 for the entire year, bear in mind that a very large part of that comes in their fourth quarter. I expect Wall Street to up its full-year estimates soon. Three months ago, JOSB beat the Street by 14 cents a share.
    JOSB has posted higher year-over-year earnings for 35 of the last 36 quarters including the last 17 in a row. Even at $3 a share, the stock is going for about 12 times forward earnings which is a decent value.
    Update: The stock is up 13% today. I’m now playing that Gary Glitter HEY song in my office.