April ISM = 54.8

The economic recovery is officially 34 months old. It’s not strong but it may last a little while longer. Today’s ISM number came in at 54.8 while Wall Street was expecting 53.0.

Here’s some context: The ISM has fallen between 54.0 and 56.0 a total of 104 times. Just three have come during official recessions.

The strong ISM caused a quick rally on Wall Street and we’re back above 1,400.

Here’s a look at how often a recession has occurred by ISM range:

Range		Count	Recessions
75	over	3	0
70	74.9	3	0
65	69.9	30	0
60	64.9	78	3
55	59.9	194	3
50	54.9	221	10
45	49.9	136	25
40	44.9	55	32
35	39.9	38	35
30	34.9	13	13
Under	30	1	1

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 1st, 2012 at 10:11 am

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