Industrial Production Rises 0.4% in June

I like to keep an eye on the monthly report on Industrial Production because it has a good record of aligning well with recessions and expansions (although it’s not a leading indicator). Check out how well the drops in the line match up with recessions (the gray area).

There’s been some talk that the U.S. is either in or about to enter a recession. I prefer to let the data speak for itself. This morning’s industrial production report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4% for June.

As a general rule, Industrial Production needs to fall by at least 6% for NBER (the official recession dating committee) declares a recession. The number for June is the highest number in four years.

I still don’t see any conclusive evidence that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.

Posted by on July 17th, 2012 at 10:09 am


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.