The Presidential Election Cycle

I don’t put too much faith in seasonal trading patterns but I do find them interesting from an historical perspective.

A few years ago, I took the entire Dow from its inception and worked out what the average four-year presidential election cycle looks like.

The second half of the election year has been one of the best times for the market. The Dow has gained an average of 14.5% during those six months. The good mood lasts until September of the year following the election. After that, the market enters a lousy patch that doesn’t end until the mid-term election.

Posted by on September 26th, 2012 at 9:58 am


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