We’re At the Peak of the Election Cycle

I recently downloaded the entire history of the Dow going back to 1896 in order to compute what the average four-year election cycle looks like. The chart below is the result.

The Dow has historically peaked on August 4th of each post-election year (a Sunday this year, and President Obama’s 52nd birthday). The low point has historically come on September 30th of the mid-term year. Over that 14 month span, the Dow has lost an average of 4.10%. During the other 34 months, the Dow has gained an average of 37.93%.

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Let me add that I would never base any investment decision on this kind of data. I merely think it’s interesting from an historical perspective.

Posted by on August 2nd, 2013 at 10:24 am


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