Archive for October, 2013

• CWS Market Review – October 11, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 11th, 2013 at 7:04 am

  “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”
  – John Maynard Keynes

  So we’ve reached the point that when our politicians decide against committing economic suicide, it’s celebrated as good news.

  On Thursday we learned that our government may have side-stepped a wholly self-induced crisis. The S&P 500 responded with its biggest rally since the first day of the year. (Interestingly, the rally that occurred nine months ago was itself due to a deal to avert another self-induced crisis—the Fiscal Cliff.)

  With this deal, nothing is finalized as of yet, but the Obama Administration has endorsed a short-term increase to the debt limit with zero policy conditions. This gives us one more month before default, and hopefully another month to get a longer-lasting deal together. Apparently, folks in Washington finally got the clue that equity markets were, shall we say, not pleased.

  

  In this week’s CWS Market Review, we’ll take a closer look at the market’s recent turmoil. Actually, compared with the mayhem from two years ago, the stock and bond markets have been downright mellow. Or at least as mellow as traders can get. I’ll also preview one of our upcoming Buy List earnings reports. I’m expecting another strong season for our stocks. But first, let’s look at the market’s best day in nine months.

  Despite the Drama, the Markets Are Calm

  In last week’s CWS Market Review, I wrote that the White House and Congress would eventually reach some sort of deal simply because there was too much to lose if they couldn’t come together. I realize, of course, that one always is at risk of overestimating the maturity of our political class.

  I should add that this potential deal still doesn’t address the government shutdown, which is particularly irksome for stat-heads like myself, since several important economic reports have been delayed. It’s impossible to say what the impact of the government shutdown is when we can’t even get the reports about what the economy did last month.

  Economists generally estimate that the government shutdown will shave a bit off Q4 GDP. The longer it lasts, the more it will be. Speaker Boehner’s plan would push the Default Day from October 17 to November 22 (incidentally, the 50th anniversary of the Kennedy Assassination). Technically, that would be the end of Uncle Sam’s borrowing authority.

  Thursday’s jobless claims report showed a spike of 66,000. But a lot of that was due to California catching up on its big backlog of claims. If you recall, the previous report was very low. Since there tends to be lots of noise in these weekly reports, many analysts prefer to look at the four-week moving average.

  As I mentioned before, the stock market has been surprisingly calm, despite the risks involved with the nuclear standoff game President Obama and Congress are playing. Let’s look at two good reads of the market’s jitters. First, the Volatility Index ($VIX). On Tuesday, the VIX made news when it broke 20 for the first time in more than three months. In fact, it broke 21 as well.

  

  The VIX is the market’s estimate of how much stock prices will fluctuate over the next month. The greater the uncertainty, the more it’s expected stocks will bounce around. Bear in mind that volatility isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As a stock picker, I don’t mind some volatility since it means that good companies have a greater opportunity to see their stocks drop down to bargain prices.

  But viewed in proper perspective, a VIX of 20 really isn’t that high. It’s just that recent volatility has been so low. Last quarter, the S&P 500 had an average daily volatility of just 0.45%, which was a seven-year low. The S&P 500’s close on Tuesday was 4% below the all-time high close from a few weeks ago. In 2011, the market fell nearly 20%.

  (Geeky math interlude: If you’re curious as to what exactly the VIX measures, it’s the market’s estimate for the S&P 500’s volatility over the next 30 days. The number is annualized, so we can get it down to one month by dividing the VIX by the square root of 12, which is roughly 3.46. That gives us the market’s one-standard-deviation estimate for the S&P 500’s plus/minus range for the next month.)

  Let’s take a step back and remember that during the last Debt Ceiling fight two years ago, the VIX came near 50. During the height of the Financial Crisis, the VIX topped 80. Traders are nervous today over a 20 VIX. The VIX was above 20 almost continuously for five straight years during the late 1990s and early 2000s. The stock market is far calmer today.

  Thanks to the news of a potential Debt Ceiling deal, the VIX plunged 16% on Thursday, to 16.48. Interestingly, the Dow almost perfectly bounced off its 200-day moving average on Wednesday (see the top chart). The index hasn’t closed below its 200-DMA all year. The S&P 500 is still well above its 200-DMA. Bespoke Investment Group noted that the stocks that did the best on Thursday were the ones that had been punished the most the week before. This was a classic snap-back rally.

  I also wanted to touch on the surprising surge in the one-month Treasury bill yield. In September, the one-month yield dropped down to 0.0%. This means you got absolutely nothing for lending Uncle Sam your money for one month. But in the last few days, the one-month yield has jumped up to 0.25%. This is another event that’s gotten a lot of attention, but ultimately it doesn’t mean much. Some market participants are obviously speculating on a default. Since the rest of the yield curve hasn’t moved much, we can see that it’s mostly a short-term game. I think traders will dump this position (meaning, cover their shorts) very soon and very dramatically. As with the VIX, the rise is only dramatic when seen in the context of the very low yields we’ve had for a long time.

  Janet Yellen to Be the Next Fed Chair

  The other big news was that President Obama nominated Janet Yellen to be the next head of the Federal Reserve. This wasn’t much of a surprise, especially since Larry Summers withdrew his name from consideration. The market clearly likes Yellen, and she’s well-respected on Wall Street.

  I don’t have much to add except that I think it’s a mistake to view Yellen as an automatic vote for the inflation doves. Right now she’s with the doves, but she hasn’t always been. In the 1990s, she was much more wary of lowering interest rates too quickly. I think some people on Wall Street aren’t aware of that. I also hope that she continues Bernanke’s policy of bringing more openness and transparency to the Federal Reserve.

  Speaking of which, the Fed released the minutes from its September meeting. This is the now-famous meeting when the central bank surprised us all by deciding not to taper (for now). The market rallied on the no-taper news, and that day (September 18) marked the S&P 500’s current all-time high close. The minutes from September indicate that most FOMC members think the Fed will begin tapering its bond-buying program before the end of the year. That’s a bit of a surprise.

  The Fed will meet two more times this year, once at the end of this month and again in December, just before Christmas. I think the latter meeting will probably see the first announcement of scaling back their bond purchases. But if the economic data are weak, then all bets are off.

  Stryker Is a Buy up to $71 per Share

  It appears that Stryker ($SYK) will be our only Buy List stock reporting earnings next week. There may be others, but none that I can confirm just yet. The week after next, several more should report. Stryker is due to report Q3 earnings after the market’s close on Thursday, October 17. Wall Street currently expects $1 per share, which is a small increase over the 97 cents per share from one year ago.

  I like Stryker a lot, but I was surprised by a rate earnings miss three months ago. The company also lowered its full-year guidance from $4.25 to $4.40 per share to a range of $4.20 to $4.26 per share. The problem is that they’ve been getting squeezed on currency exchange. That’s troubling, but the important thing is that it’s not due to operations.

  Stryker made news recently when they bought MAKO Surgical ($MAKO) for $1.65 billion, which was an 86% premium. That’s a hefty price tag, but MAKO is involved in robotic-assisted surgery, which is a red hot sector. I’m skeptical of this move, but I’ll give SYK the benefit of the doubt. I also expect to see a dividend increase in December. Stryker remains a very good buy up to $71 per share.

  That’s all for now. Earnings season heats up next week. I have no idea what economic reports will come out next week. I can say that CPI and Industrial Production are two reports that I’d very much like to see…that is, if the government ever reopens. Also on Thursday, Stryker will report Q3 earnings. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

  – Eddy

• Morning News: October 11, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 11th, 2013 at 7:02 am

  IMF Wants Central Banks to Oversee Markets With Gov’t Supervision

  Royal Mail Stock Jumps 38% on First Trading Day After IPO

  France’s Fracking Ban ‘Absolute’ After Court Upholds Law

  Middle East Oil Fuels Fresh China-U.S. Tensions

  G20 Hopes Grow for U.S. Deal to Avert Default

  Republicans Enter Talks With Obama on Debt Limit Increase

  Starbucks CEO Starts Petition Against Government Shutdown

  Blue Cross Plans Jump to an Early Lead

  Good Vibrations for JPMorgan

  BlackBerry Co-founders Considering Bid for Company

  Del Monte Pacific Buys U.S. Canned Food Business for $1.7 Billion

  Here’s What Brokerages Have to Say About Infosys Q2 Results

  Safeway Third-quarter Profit Down

  Credit Writedowns: First Signs That U.S. Shutdown is Impacting Consumer Spending

  Roger Nusbaum: True Understanding of the Long Term

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• Morning News: October 10, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 10th, 2013 at 6:49 am

  Draghi’s Next Move Seen Easing Liquidity as Rates on Hold

  Abenomics is a Gigantic Headache for the World’s Largest Pension Fund

  China’s Ambassador to Myanmar Stresses Communication

  Currency Volatility in India Brings Down PC Shipments in APAC

  For Janet Yellen, Obama’s Federal Reserve Nominee, Quiet Patience Paid Off

  The Yellen Fed? Precise and Predictable

  Budget Stalemate Could End Talk of the Fed Tapering Its Stimulus

  Tracing the Calendar Down to the Last Cent

  Washington Budget Chaos Keeps Fed Rates Low for Longer

  Rejection Rebound? Men’s Wearhouse Up 28% After Refusing Jos. A. Bank’s $2.3 Billion Offer

  Morgan Stanley Sees Gold Lower in 2014 as Goldman Says Sell

  JPMorgan Clients in Cash as Schwab’s Options Hedge Default

  Check Out What’s Happened To The Windows PC Market Since Apple Launched The iPad

  Jeff Carter: 95% of the Time, I Am Selling

  Joshua Brown: A Tale of Two Dows (Or Why We invest Globally)

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Travel Week
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 10th, 2013 at 2:01 am

  I have to apologize. I’ve been traveling this week and haven’t had much time to post. I hope to bring you full analysis and market news in this Friday’s CWS Market Review.

• Morning News: October 9, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 9th, 2013 at 6:31 am

  India September Trade Deficit Narrows to 30-Month Low

  IMF’s Pessimism on Global Growth Widens

  Yellen’s Quake-Proof Calm Needed to Guide Fed Easing Exit

  What the Fed Does, and Can Do

  Recession Looms If Treasury Uses Tools to Prevent a Debt Default

  Bharti, Walmart Call Off India JV; to Independently Pursue Retail Business

  Alcoa Reports Profitable Quarter on Lower Costs

  Microsoft’s $7.2 Billion Nokia Bet Not Luring Apps

  The Worst Is Over for Yum! Brands

  Panasonic Said to Halt Plasma TV Output This Fiscal Year

  Jos. A. Bank Proposes to Buy Men’s Wearhouse for $2.3 billion

  New Stock Symbol for Tweeter After Twitter Mix-Up

  Take That, Counterfeiters: One Hundred Years of Changes to the $100 Bill

  Cullen Roche: Meet Your New Monetary Overlord, Janet Yellen

  Credit Writedowns: In the Event of a Missed Payment, the U.S. Has Three Days to Cure

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• On the Road…
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 8th, 2013 at 9:57 am

  Light posting today. It’s a travel day.

• Morning News: October 8, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 8th, 2013 at 7:03 am

  German Exports Rise Less Than Expected in August

  The Ultimate Bitcoin Question: Can the Feds Spend $3.3M in Seized Digital Currency?

  Federal Reserve to Unveil a Redesigned $100 Bill

  Shutdown Costs at $1.6 Billion With $160 Million Each Day

  The Costs of Debt Default Are Sobering

  Morgan Stanley Seen Leading Profit Gains at U.S. Banks

  Twitter’s Need To Profit Overseas Will Test Its Free Speech Principles

  Apollo’s $2.5 Billion Cooper Offer in Jeopardy

  Google Lands A Huge Customer For Google Apps: Whirlpool

  BlackBerry Security May Be Key to an ‘Agnostic’ Future

  To Lift Hong Kong Park, Disney Deploys Iron Man

  Ford Comes From Behind In China To Stun Japanese Rivals

  Steve Ballmer’s Final Letter To Shareholders As CEO ‘Of The Company I Love’

  Jeff Carter: Bitcoin Volatility Solution

  Joshua Brown: Preparing for the Twitter IPO – Get Your Mind Right

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• The VIX Hits Three-Mont High
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 7th, 2013 at 2:41 pm

  The government is still closed and the stock market is down again today. The market had been down about 1% early on, but now it’s down about half that much.

  The politicians are involved in a stand-off and I’m inclined to think it will go on until someone has to make a move. Here’s how it stands: The country will exhaust its borrowing authority on October 17th. We’ll then run out of money sometime between October 22nd and October 31st.

  One casualty of the government shutdown is economic stats. We didn’t get the regular jobs report on Friday, and many other reports may be delayed. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes from its September meeting.

  What’s interesting is that the stock and bond markets are actually quite calm despite the chaos in Washington. I think the choice of defaulting is so outrageous that Wall Street can’t take it seriously. I think that’s right.

  The VIX hit a three-month high today of 18.54, but that’s still well below the levels we saw during the Debt Ceiling Crisis from two years ago. During the summer of 2011, the VIX was regularly over 40.

  The market has a defensive posture today as telecom and utilities are up, and financials are down.

• Morning News: October 7, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 7th, 2013 at 6:33 am

  World Bank Cuts China, East Asia Growth Forecasts

  Japan PM Abe Tells Trade Negotiators of Commitment to Deregulation

  Global Financial Services Firms Join New Open Messaging Network

  A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall

  Five Reasons to Fear the Debt Ceiling

  Here’s a Fantastic and Disturbing Paragraph on How the Market Views the Debt Ceiling

  JAL, Airbus Announce Landmark Order

  Apollo, Cooper Disagree Over $2.5 Billion Price in Latest Deal Setback

  Twitter’s Data Business Proves Lucrative

  Twitter Advertisers Say Service Needs More Users

  Swarms of Rivals Seeking Share of Social Media Pie

  BlackBerry Accused in Suit of Inflating Shares With False Claims

  As DVRs Shift TV Habits, Ratings Calculations Follow

  Epicurean Dealmaker: Punished by Fate

  Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Markets Look Beyond the Washington Logjam?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Twitter Soars 1,000%. Sorry, Make that Tweeter
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 4th, 2013 at 1:04 pm

  From Reuters:

  Excitement for Twitter’s coming IPO is running pretty high – so much so that some investors on Friday mistook the nearly worthless stock of long-dead electronics retailer Tweeter for the “tweeting” site, sending shares up more than 1,000 percent.

  Tweeter Home Entertainment Group, a specialty consumer electronics company that went bankrupt in 2007, saw a its most active day of trading in more than six years even though it has nothing to do with the social media site.

  The stock, which trades over the counter, closed Thursday at a price of less than a penny a share, and Friday hit a high of 15 cents a share on Friday, before paring gains to trade at 5 cents, a 669 percent rise. More than 11.7 million shares had traded by midday.

  The volume was the most active trading day for the company since May 10, 2007, when 13.05 million shares were traded and the company reported quarterly results and said it may choose to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy.