Archive for December, 2013

• November ISM = 57.3
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 2nd, 2013 at 10:12 am

  Today’s ISM came in at 57.3. That’s the highest number since April 2011. Any reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding. Below 50 indicates a contraction.

  This was the best ISM report since April 2011. The ISM has topped 50 for 50 of the last 52 months.

  

• We’re Back!
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 2nd, 2013 at 9:35 am

  We’re back! I hope everyone had an enjoyable long weekend. This will be a busy week for economic news. The ISM report comes out later today. On Thursday, the government will update the third-quarter GDP report. Then on Friday, the November jobs report comes out. Last week’s initial claims report was the fifth-lowest in the last six years.

  Trading was very slow last week, but the stock market managed to climb higher. At one point on Friday, the S&P 500 got to 1,813.55 which is an all-time high. However, the market dropped shortly before the early close. Last Monday, the Nasdaq Composite closed above 4,000 for the first time in 13 years.

  I’ve often noted that the current rally is the most-hated rally in Wall Street’s history. Perhaps a little overstatement. Still, I suspect that a major reason isn’t that the bears haven’t seen drops, but it’s that they have. Consider that during the current rally which began in March 2009, we’ve seen separate drops of 5.6%, 5.8%, 6.4%, 7.1%, 7.7%, 8.1%, 9.9%, 16.0% and 19.4%. Every single one led to a new high. All of them.

  What’s also interesting is the breadth of this market. The top 10 point contributors in the S&P 500 have accounted for 18% of this year’s gain. In 1999, that number was 65%. The tech bubble was created by a very small number of stocks. That’s not what’s happening now. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has gained 20% or more 18 times. The following year’s gain has averaged 10%.

• Morning News: December 2, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 2nd, 2013 at 7:16 am

  Bali Talks to Decide Fate of WTO

  Global Factory Growth Picks Up But Europe DIverging

  Flagship UK Scheme Boosts Bank Lending, Aiding Recovery

  Greece Just Hit a Major Milestone In Its Economic Recovery

  Markets Dip After China Lifts Ban on New Stock Listings

  Bull Market Shows No Sign of Death With Yellen Support

  Akamai Buying Prolexic For About $370 Million

  Gloomy Numbers For Holiday Shopping’s Big Weekend

  Amazon Testing Drones for Same-Day Package Delivery, Bezos Says

  Quiet Boss at Citigroup Setting Tone For Wall Street

  Hilton Seeks as Much as $2.4 Billion in Biggest Hotel IPO

  Three Tax-Savvy Ways to Donate Appreciated Stock

  Cullen Roche: Suddenly People Are Realizing That QE Might Be Deflationary

  Jeff Carter: The Holiday Wind Down-How To Find a Job or Keep Momentum

  Jeff Miller: A Deeper Look at Those Skeptical Charts on Forward Earnings Estimates

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