Predicting NFP

Tomorrow is the big November jobs report. Yesterday we got the ISM Employment report which came in at 54.9.

Since the beginning of 2008, the ISM Employment numbers have been decently correlated with monthly NFP growth (R-squared of about 0.71).

Going by the recent regression, 54.9 translates to a gain of 131,000 payroll jobs. That’s well below expectations. Bear in mind that there’s a sizeable error spread is this analysis.

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 4th, 2014 at 2:52 pm

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