Q3 GDP Revised up to 3.5%

Good, albeit, dated news for the economy today. The government revised its estimate for third-quarter GDP growth up to 3.5%. Bear in mind that Q3 began six months ago and ended nearly three months ago. The government’s previous report was for 3.2%.

Last quarter was the best quarter for the economy in two years.

The first quarter of 2017 is about to begin in a few days. Over the last 10 years, the economy has performed much worse during Q1 than in the rest of the year.

Here’s how it breaks down. Since 2007, average real GDP growth by quarter:

Q1: -0.08%
Q2: +2.20%
Q3: +1.96%
Q4: +1.21%

One of these things is not like the others.

Perhaps it’s weather or season factors. Or maybe it’s coincidence. In the chart below, you can see how many of the poor quarters were Q1s.

Posted by on December 22nd, 2016 at 12:44 pm


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