Archive for April, 2017

• Morning News: April 7, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 7th, 2017 at 7:04 am

  BOE’s Carney Urges Banks to Prepare for Any Brexit Outcome

  U.S. Jobs Report: What to Watch For

  U.S. South, Not Just Mexico, Stands in Way of Rust Belt Jobs Revival

  Trump and Warren Agree? Maybe, on Plan to Shrink Big Banks

  The $90 Billion Investor Who’s Out to Fire Wall Street

  Wall Street Is Making It Harder To Buy A Car

  Even Amid Trade Tensions, Ford Pushes Pickup Trucks in China

  212 Tesla Owners Can’t Be Wrong: How Tesla Can Be Worth More Than Ford

  Twitter Sues the Government to Block the Unmasking of an Account Critical of Trump

  Billionaire Ev Williams Plans to Sell Up To 30% Of His Twitter Stake

  Adidas to Mass-Produce 3D-Printed Shoe With Silicon Valley Start-Up

  Uber Rival Lyft Raises $500 Million in Funding

  Norway to Build $315 Million Ship Tunnel in World First

  Roger Nusbaum: Avoiding Groupthink Yield Chasing

  Jeff Miller: Stock Exchange: Finding Trading Ideas in a Low Volatility Market

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• RPM Earns 14 Cents Per Share
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 6th, 2017 at 12:03 pm

  This morning, RPM Inc. (RPM) reported fiscal third quarter earnings of 14 cents per share. This was for the quarter that ended on February 28. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of 11 cents per share.

  This is a bit unusual because only a very small portion of RPM’s annual profit comes during their fiscal Q3. The company expects full-year earnings to range between $2.57 and $2.67 per share. That’s a reduction of five cents per share from their previous forecast due to “combined third quarter charges for the Restore intangible impairment and the European facility closure.”

  Quarterly revenue rose to $1.02 billion which was just shy of estimates of $1.04 billion.

  “Our businesses serving the U.S. commercial construction market again experienced solid organic growth. Most businesses in Europe were up in the low- to mid-single-digit range in local currencies and current-year acquisitions contributed nicely to the segment’s overall sales growth. We were very pleased with the strong EBIT leverage achieved on solid top-line sales,” stated Sullivan.

• Morning News: April 6, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 6th, 2017 at 6:56 am

  China Moves a Step Forward in Its Quest for Food Security

  Traders Need to Start Giving the Euro and Pound Some Respect

  Traders Bet the Fed Will Slow Rate Hikes to Shrink Balance Sheet

  Flood of U.S. Oil to Asia Comforts Tanker Market Trashed by OPEC

  Fed and Trump Signals Give Stocks Double Trouble

  Cohn Backs Wall Street Split of Lending, Investment Banks

  Jeff Bezos Says He Is Selling $1 Billion a Year in Amazon Stock to Finance Race to Space

  A Coffee Empire Grows as Panera Is Sold to JAB Holding Company

  Unilever Promises Cash to Shareholders After Rebuffing Kraft Approach

  Boeing Forms Venture Group, Invests in Two Tech Startups

  Twitter Creates ‘Lite’ Version For Data-Starved Users

  Cody Brown Has a Broad Vision for Virtual Reality

  7-Eleven Operator to Buy U.S. Stores From Sunoco For $3.3 Billion

  Josh Brown: The State of Wealth Management in 2017

  Howard Lindzon: The Year 2017 – So Much Wealth and So Much Cheating

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• Morning News: April 5, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 5th, 2017 at 7:12 am

  Trump and Xi: Two Imposing Leaders With Clashing Agendas

  Behind Trump’s Trade Deficit Obsession: Deficient Analysis

  Richmond Fed President Resigns

  Even Under Trump, a U.S. Coal Giant Plots Cautious Comeback Plan

  Dimon: U.S. Is ‘Exceptional’ But Faces ‘Significant’ Problems

  Global Shipping Fleet Braces for Chaos of $60 Billion Fuel Shock

  To Unravel Tesla, GM and Einhorn, Look To Oil

  Consumers In Line For $70 Million In Refunds After Amazon, FTC Settlement

  Panera Is Exploring Possible Sale After Receiving Interest

  America Is ‘Over-Stored’ And Payless ShoeSource Is The Latest Victim

  Ralph Lauren Is the Latest Fashion Victim in a New Era for Retailers

  The Jenna Lyons Era at J. Crew Comes to an End

  `O’Reilly Factor’ Advertisers Jump Ship in Blow to Fox News

  Roger Nusbaum: Brexit Is On The Clock

  Jeff Carter: How To Do Social Entrepreneurship Right: Guard Llama

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• The Emerging Markets Cycle
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 4th, 2017 at 1:00 pm

  Here’s a fascinating chart. This shows the main Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) divided by the S&P 500.

  

  As you can see, it goes in long cycles. From 1999 to 2010, EEM beat the market regularly (except during the financial crisis).

  Since 2010, the U.S. market has been the champ. The S&P 500 has doubled while EEM hasn’t gained at all.

  Has the cycle turned? I can’t say for certain, but EEM has started to perk up against the overall market. If it’s a new trend, I think it could last several years.

• Can Emerging Markets Keep Leading the Way?
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 4th, 2017 at 12:39 pm

• Morning News: April 4, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 4th, 2017 at 7:01 am

  It’s a Big Week for One of the Most Important Debates in Markets

  Uncovering the Secret History of Wall Street’s Largest Oil Trade

  Within Hours, Plans for a Quiet Corner of China Send Home Prices Soaring

  RBA’s Lowe Lashes Out at Australian Banks for Risky Home Lending

  H-1B Visa Applications Pour In By Truckload Before Door Slams Shut

  Trump Completes Repeal of Online Privacy Protections From Obama Era

  Boeing Says It Signed $3 Billion Deal With Iranian Airline

  Amazon Launches Amazon Cash, a Way To Shop Its Site Without a Bank Card

  Tesla Passes Ford in Market Value as Investors Bet on the Future

  Verizon Announces New Name Brand for AOL and Yahoo: Oath

  J. Crew’s Parting With Once-Prized Top Merchant Echoes Retail’s Woes

  Vale Megadeal Puts Morgan Stanley, Bradesco At The Top of Brazil M&A

  Wells Fargo Whistle-Blower Wins $5.4 Million and His Job Back

  Cullen Roche: What Is “Enough”?

  Howard Lindzon: Elon Musk is the Mayor of Shortville…and This Shnook Caught a Snook

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• Can the Worst Performing Stock in the S&P 500 Catch a Break?
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 3rd, 2017 at 11:22 pm

• Trading the Automakers
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 3rd, 2017 at 8:15 pm

• March ISM = 57.2
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 3rd, 2017 at 11:28 am

  Please forgive me, but I was very busy last week with traveling. I wasn’t able to get to the newsletter, but I promise it will return this week.

  To be honest, there hasn’t been a lot of action on Wall Street lately. This morning, we learned that the ISM Manufacturing report for March came in at 57.2. That’s a decent number.

  I like to track the ISM number because it tends to line up well with recessions and expansions. Recessions typically kick in when the ISM is 45 or less. Also, the ISM report comes out on the first business day of the month. For now, we’re not near a recession.

  Even though the overall market has been flatlining recently, the Nasdaq Composite continues to climb higher. This is the danger in placing too much faith in an index. The rising Nasdaq really tells us more about the health of large-cap tech than the overall market.

  A week ago, the S&P 500 dipped below its 50-day moving average. Crucially, it didn’t close below it. The index then briefly rallied, but the 50-DMA still lurks not far away. I’m going to keep an eye on this. Falling below support can often be a warning sign of bad things to come.