Near the High Point of the Election Cycle

We’re very close to the traditional high point in the Presidential Election Cycle. I’ve crunched 120 years of data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and found that in the average four-year cycle, the Dow historically peaks on August 4th of the post-election year.

From there, the Dow loses an average of 3.6% until it hits its low on September 30th of the mid-term year.

There’s another lull for the market from the middle of the pre-election year until the middle of the election year. Outside that, the stock market does pretty well. The market has done especially well from just before the mid-term election until the middle of the pre-election year.

Please bear in mind that these are very general market tendencies. I would never act on any of this data, but it’s interesting to see how the stock market has historically behaved.

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 11th, 2017 at 1:01 pm

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