The Average Decade for the Dow

We’re now three-quarters of the way through the decade. Here’s what the average decade looks like for the Dow. I set the y-axis at a base of 100. The x-axis is number of days.

For the most part, the latter part of the decade has been better than the first half. Bear in mind that even 121 years of the Dow isn’t a large sample size for a decade.

I found that the best five-year run has been from July 23 of the third year (meaning ending in 2) to July 23 of the eighth year (ending in 7). The Dow has gained 129.4% in that time.

The rest of the time, the Dow has lost -3.8%.

In three weeks, we’re coming up on the end of the bullish period. To be clear, I don’t see any of this as advice. I just think it’s interesting.

Posted by on July 3rd, 2017 at 10:12 am


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