Archive for August, 2017

• The Puzzling Slowdown of the U.S. Economy
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 21st, 2017 at 3:41 pm

  One of the most important economic facts of today is that the rate of growth for the U.S. economy has slowed down dramatically. I don’t know why this is and I’m sure economists will be debating it for a long time. The change started with the onset of an unusually deep recession ten years ago. On top of that, the recovery has been the weakest on record.

  Political partisans of various stripes get very upset with these facts, but the facts are stubbornly unswayed. Mind you, the U.S. economy is still growing. It’s just that the rate of growth is much lower.

  Even if we look at GDP adjusted for inflation and population, we still see a slowdown. (You can see the data here.)

  Here’s what I find fascinating: For 40 years, beginning in the mid-1960s, real U.S. GDP per capita tended to grow at an annualized rate of about 2.1%. Sure, during recessions, it would deviate from 2.1%—but not by much. The recoveries tended to bring it right back in line.

  Annualized Growth in Real GDP Per Capita
  1953-1966: 2.1%
  1966-1985: 2.1%
  1985-2007: 2.1%
  Since 2007: 0.7%

  Source: https://t.co/VxyeJD392E

  — Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) August 21, 2017

  With the tweet above, there’s some cherry-picking, but only slightly. The figures are right for the first period (1953 to 1966), but that includes a slow-growth period until 1960 and a fast-growth period after. Outside that, the 2.1% trend holds up pretty well.

  Here’s another way to make the same point. The chart below is real GDP per capita in black. The red line is a simple trend line growing at 2.1% per year.

  

  Notice how closely the two lines track each other for 40 years — and how sharply they’ve parted ways recently.

• Foot Locker Plunges
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 21st, 2017 at 12:32 pm

  A few times I’ve come close to adding Foot Locker (FL) to our Buy List. Each time, I held off. Now I’m glad I did. The shares crashed 28% on Friday, and they’re down again today.

  Foot Locker had an absolutely terrible earnings report. The company made 62 cents per share instead of the 90 cents Wall Street had been expecting. The Street had been expecting a 1% increase in same-store sales. Instead, they fell by 6%.

  Not only that, but the stock had been plunging going into earnings season as well. The company said it will close 130 stores this year. If that weren’t enough, earlier this year, Nike said they plan to sell through Amazon.

  This is more evidence that the retail landscape is changing. Amazon is eating up most everything, and the big box stores are taking the rest.

• The Fed Gets Ready to Meet in Jackson Hole
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 21st, 2017 at 11:06 am

  The Federal Reserve will get together later this week at their big annual conference in Jackson Hole. From Europe, Mr. Draghi will be there as well. I doubt there will be much in the way of news, but you never know. In previous years, the Fed has used Jackson Hole to announce major policy changes.

  It seems that a December rate hike is a diminishing possibility. As I’ve said before, inflation just ain’t there. The futures market currently thinks there’s a 35.9% chance of a rate hike in December.

  Here are a few updates on some of our Buy List stocks.

  Longbow Research cut Snap-on (SNA) to neutral. The shares are down about 4% this morning. I wouldn’t worry about it.

  On Friday, HEICO (HEI) said they’re buying AeroAntenna Technology for $316.5 million. It’s HEICO’s largest merger to date.

  To follow up on the great earnings report from Ross Stores (ROST), I saw this at Business Insider:

  In some stores, the fitting rooms are “dirty,” the service is “horrible,” and merchandise is mislabeled, ink-stained, broken, or damaged, according to an analysis of dozens of customer reviews on Yelp.

  But in those same reviews, customers complaining about the state of the stores admit they love shopping in them for the “insane” deals.

  “I LOVE SHOPPING AT ROSS!” one customer wrote on Yelp, adding that she feels like she’s “robbing the bank” when she finds deals there.

  Another wrote: “I love this place for cheap clothes. It’s just always so dirty, dank and full of screaming children.”

  This is why Ross has been able to withstand Amazon.

  Last Thursday, Hormel Foods (HRL) said they’re buying Fontanini Brand Meats for $425 Million

  From the WSJ:

  Hormel, the maker of Spam canned pork and Skippy peanut butter, said it has acquired Fontanini Italian Meats and Sausages from privately held Capitol Wholesale Meats Inc. The Chicago-based business sells branded meat products such as pizza toppings and meatballs.

  Hormel and other major U.S. meat processors, such as Tyson FoodsInc. TSN +0.37% and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. PPC +0.67% , have aimed to fill out their portfolios of branded food products in search of higher and more stable profit margins than they can get from fresh meats sold to restaurants or shrink-wrapped in supermarkets.

  “This is a strategic acquisition for our high-growth food-service division,” Hormel’s Chief Executive Jim Snee said in a statement. “The Fontanini brand is highly regarded, and the addition of these products to our portfolio will allow us to accelerate growth.”

• Morning News: August 21, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 21st, 2017 at 7:02 am

  Yellen, Draghi Head to Jackson Hole Amid Inflation Unease

  Historic Eclipse Will Test America’s Grid as Solar Waxes, Wanes

  Sempra Bests Berkshire With $9.45 Billion Offer for Oncor

  Total to Buy Maersk’s Oil and Gas Business for $4.95 Billion

  China’s Great Wall Confirms Interest in Fiat Chrysler

  China Just Relaunched the World’s Fastest Train

  Crowded TV Marketplace Gets Ready For Three Tech Giants

  Volkswagen Will Revive Its Iconic Microbus, and It’s Going to Be Electric

  JD Gets Sold Off, As Market Perception Shifts In Alibaba’s Favor

  The Company Quietly Making Opioid Addiction Searchable

  U.S. Farmers Confused by Monsanto Week Killer’s Complex Instructions

  Tarnished by Charlottesville, the Tiki Torch Company Tries to Move On

  Michael Batnick: These Are The Goods

  Jeff Carter: Should You Pay Deal by Deal, or Total Fund? and Jason Calcanis’ “Angel”

  Howard Lindzon: Lows Are For Schmos

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• Nice Move for Ross Stores
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 18th, 2017 at 2:33 pm

  The strong earnings report from Ross Stores (ROST) came out yesterday afternoon. As a result, I didn’t know what the stock’s reaction would be in this week’s newsletter.

  Now we know.

  

• CWS Market Review – August 18, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 18th, 2017 at 7:08 am

  “Good investment advice is repetitive and boring. There is nothing exciting about it.”
  – D. Muthukrishnan

  Volatility may slowly be creeping back into Wall Street. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 fell by 1.45%. As I explained in last week’s CWS Market Review, that’s not really that big a move in historical terms. But compared with how calm the market’s been this year, it was a jolt.

  Some market watchers dismissed last week’s move as being due to jitters about North Korea. That’s right, but we got another downdraft this week, and again, it happened on Thursday. This time, the S&P 500 lost 1.54%. That’s the index’s biggest daily drop in three months. Not many other days have come close.

  

  I’m not ready to say that this a major change for the market. It could be a false start, and the stock market may quickly return to its sleepy ways. But it’s something to notice. Trends can only last so long.

  In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll highlight some of the market’s recent trends. Later on, I’ll discuss the very nice earnings report we got from Ross Stores. The deep-discounter is doing just fine against the great Amazon behemoth. Ross raised its full-year earnings guidance for the second time this year. I’ll also preview three more Buy List earnings reports coming our way next week. But first, let’s look at what’s shaking Wall Street.

  The Slow-Moving Break-Up of the Baby-Step Rally

  Three times in the last six trading sessions, the S&P 500 had a daily move of more than 1%. Normally, that’s no big deal, but in 2017, it’s enough to get your attention. Last year, the S&P 500 had 48 days in which it closed up or down by more than 1%. In 2015, there were 72. So far this year, there have been seven.

  Here a remarkable stat: Not once since election day has there been a 3% drawdown for the market. In other words, from top to bottom, the S&P 500 has never been down by more than 3%. That’s the longest such streak on record. For more than nine months, it’s been a baby-step rally the whole way. However, there are a few disparate events that seem to be coming together all at once that could shake things up. Let me take them one at a time.

  I was critical of the last Fed rate increase. Now it appears the market is starting to doubt the Fed’s commitment to more rate increases. The futures market had been expecting a third rate increase this year in December. Now the odds are slightly against it. Traders don’t give a 50% chance for another rate increase until March 2018. That’s actually more hawkish than a few days ago when the next hike was pegged for June 2018. Whatever the case, traders think the Fed will be on hold for several more months. By the way, I should add that Janet Yellen’s term ends in February. President Trump may reappoint her.

  Speaking of the president, many of the investing themes that took hold of the market after the election have quietly melted away. A good example is small-cap stocks. Last November, the Russell 2000 soared. There was a great deal of optimism that the new administration would be a boon for smaller companies. (Please note: I’m not making a political statement. I’m merely reflecting what traders believed at the time.)

  But the sector soon started to lag the baby-step rally. In the last month, the Russell 2000 has been drifting lower in absolute terms. On Thursday, the index dropped below its 200-day moving average, which is often a bad omen. The Russell hasn’t traded below its 200-DMA in more than a year.

  

  Watching the small-cap sector is important because it could be an early warning sign that investors are pulling back on riskier names. In a bull market, you want to see stable blue chips rally alongside the up-and-comers. Whenever the score tilts heavily to one side, you know something’s up.

  Along with small-caps, the energy sector is getting beaten up. Just like small-caps, energy stocks jumped last November on hopes of the incoming administration. But the Energy Sector ETF (XLE) has fallen for the last six days in a row, and 11 times in the last 13 days. There’s just no love for energy stocks at the moment.

  Here’s what happening: On the surface, we’ve seen a baby-step rally. The S&P 500 is moving mostly upward, with very low volatility. But below the surface, investors have been quietly shunning riskier areas and fleeing to safety. Or rather, perceived safety. But this is unusual because it’s the opposite of what we normally see in the late stages of a bull run. Typically, when investors exit safety and chase madly after risk, that’s a sign of a frothy market.

  On top of that, we’ve seen pronounced weakness in the U.S. dollar all year. Mind you, that’s not all bad. In fact, the weak dollar probably bailed out the market this earnings season. But are all these trends separate or are they different expressions of the same event?

  One possible explanation is that the economy simply isn’t as strong as people thought. That’s why investors are shifting toward safety. Despite a low unemployment rate, GDP isn’t moving so fast, and that could require more assistance from the Fed. Lower rates, or a slower increase in rates, would also make the U.S. dollar less attractive.

  Going forward, I encourage investors to remain focused on high-quality stocks. Two Buy List stocks that look particularly good at the moment are Danaher (DHR) and Alliance Data Systems (ADS). As always, make sure your portfolio is well diversified. Now let’s look at the good news from Ross Stores.

  Ross Stores Beats and Raises Guidance (Again)

  After the closing bell on Thursday, Ross Stores (ROST) reported very good earnings for their fiscal second quarter. This came as a huge relief for traders, as folks who keep an eye on retail had been expecting the worst. Shares of Ross had been drifting lower for much of this year.

  I’m glad we’ve stuck by Ross because it’s an excellent firm. Ross is one of the few retailers that’s been able to withstand the great Amazon beast. For Q2, Ross earned 82 cents per share. That was well above the range of 73 to 76 cents per share that Ross had been expecting. Even as a Ross fan, this is more than I had anticipated.

  Let’s dig into some of the numbers. Ross’s quarterly sales rose 8% to $3.432 billion. Their comp-store sales rose by 4%. That really impressed me. For Q2, Ross had been expecting an increase of 1% to 2%. A great number is that their quarterly operating margin came in at 14.9%, which is very good for a retailer. This tells us that Ross is holding up well within its sector.

  

  Now for guidance. Ross sees Q3 earnings ranging between 64 and 67 cents per share. In last week’s issue, I said I was looking for something like 65 to 68 cents per share, so that’s pretty close. Ross also gave Q4 guidance of 88 to 92 cents per share. Q4 is November, December and January.

  If you add those two ranges together, plus the $1.64 per share Ross has already made in the first half of this year, that translates to a full-year range of $3.16 to $3.23 per share. That’s an increase over the previous full-year range of $3.07 to $3.17 per share. This is actually the second time Ross has increased its full-year guidance. Things are obviously going well for them.

  Ross has also been using its cash flow to buy back tons of its own stock. I’m not wild about this practice, but at least Ross actually reduces the share count. Through Thursday, Ross was our worst-performing stock this year. That may soon change. Thanks to the earnings report, shares of Ross were up more than 10% in the after-hours session. A word of caution: the after-hours market doesn’t always line up with what the stock will do once the real trading starts the next morning.

  This time, we can congratulate ourselves. In last week’s newsletter, I told you Ross Stores was “a good value here.” We stuck by a good company when others got scared and ran away. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Ross Stores to $61 per share.

  Three Buy List Earnings Reports Next Week

  We have three more Buy List earnings reports next week. But I promise you, after that, we’re going into a long earnings lull period. We won’t see another Buy List earnings report until early October. Let’s look at who’s reporting next week.

  HEICO (HEI) plans to release their fiscal Q3 earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 23. The company had a very good earnings report last May, but the stock market was not impressed. That is, it wasn’t impressed until several weeks later, when HEICO started a furious rally. Sure that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, but welcome to Planet Wall Street.

  Wall Street expects earnings of 53 cents per share. The company said it expects sales to rise by 8% to 10% and net income to rise by 12% to 14%. Last year, HEICO made $1.86 per share. If we assume no change in shares outstanding, that implies 2017 EPS of $2.08 to $2.12.

  One final note. Shares of HEICO took a 4% dip on Thursday after the stock was downgraded by Deutsche Bank. HEICO is up more than 32% for us this year.

  Next Thursday, we’ll get earnings reports from Hormel Foods (HRL) and JM Smucker (SJM). Both companies will report results before the opening bell.

  Unfortunately, Hormel has been one of our weaker stocks this year. Frankly, their last earnings report was kinda blah. The company faced a headwind of an oversupply of turkeys. The good news is that Hormel is standing by its full-year forecast of $1.65 to $1.71 per share. However, they now say they expect results to be at the low end of that range.

  Hormel has missed the last three earnings reports—each time by one penny per share. This time, the consensus on Wall Street is for 37 cents per share. I think the losing streak will come to an end.

  Next week’s report will be for Smucker’s fiscal Q1. For fiscal 2018, Smucker said they expect earnings to range between $7.85 and $8.05 per share. They beat earnings for Q4, but that was due to cost-cutting. I’m all for keeping costs down, but you need to grow the top line as well. Wall Street expects Q1 earnings of $1.63 per share.

  That’s all for now. There’s not much on the calendar for next week except for the start of the Jackson Hole conference. This is the big Fed shindig every August out in Wyoming. Several times, the Fed has used the occasion for important policy announcements. I doubt we’ll see much this year. The conference begins on Thursday. On Friday, I’ll be keeping an eye out for the latest report on durable goods. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

  – Eddy

• Morning News: August 18, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 18th, 2017 at 7:03 am

  Thanks To A Shopping Spree, Japan Is Looking Up. It May Not Last.

  The World’s Biggest Tech Companies Are No Longer Just American

  Bitcoin: Blockchain and Bitstamp Add Ethereum

  Fracking Jobs Prove Elusive for Coal Miners Looking to Switch

  Infosys Says Vishal Sikka Resigns as CEO, Becomes Vice Chairman

  Walmart’s Online Sales Up 60% Giving Amazon A Good Run For The Money – Consumers To Benefit

  How Walmart Is Bolstering Its Grocery Business Ahead of the Amazon-Whole Foods Marriage

  For Uber, a Quiet Investor Becomes a Sudden Thorn

  Wisconsin Bill Giving $3 Billion Incentives to Foxconn Advances

  Rolls-Royce Is Pop Music’s Hottest Brand

  Jack Ma-Backed Yunfeng Leads $1.7 Billion Purchase of MassMutual Asia Unit

  What Happened Behind the Scenes as Trump’s Business Councils Fell Apart

  The Internal Combustion Engine Is Not Dead Yet

  Joshua Brown: Scott Galloway and Aswath Damodaran on Bitcoin vs Gold

  Jeff Miller: Is The Bull Market Slowing?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Morning News: August 17, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 17th, 2017 at 7:12 am

  Japan Reports Trade Surplus in July as Exports Rise Again

  Bank of England’s Caution Is Justified. What Happens When It Isn’t?

  Fed Policymakers Grow More Worried About Weak Inflation

  Really Sweating Inflation

  An Eclipse Is Just What the U.S. Power Sector’s Been Waiting For

  Here’s How Trump’s Council of Business Titans Fell Apart

  Trump’s Bruising Tweet Highlights Amazon’s Lingering Tax Fight

  China’s Online Giants Back $12 Billion Deal to Shake Up State Firm

  Hyundai Unveils New Fuel Cell SUV With Longer Travel Range

  Cisco: Thrill-Seekers Need Not Apply

  A Chinese Video Game Rakes in Cash – And Draws Young Rule Breakers

  Alibaba’s Quarterly Revenue Beats Esimates

  Cullen Roche: Robo Advisors Don’t Beat Traditional Index Funds

  Roger Nusbaum: 8 Brutally Honest Truths You Need To Hear If You Want To Get Your Portfolio Together

  Ben Carlson: The Canadian Housing Market is Bananas

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• Morning News: August 16, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 16th, 2017 at 7:06 am

  IMF Warns on China’s Credit Boom

  Tech Companies Ramp Up NAFTA Lobbying on Eve of Trade Talks

  Fed Minutes May Show Battle Lines Hardening Over Soft Inflation

  CEOs Walk Trump Tightrope Into New Era of Corporate Politics

  Junk Bonds Are Big Winner a Decade After Financial Crisis

  The Real Losers in Air Berlin’s Demise

  Cathay Struggles to Get Top Dollar From Fliers Amid Revamp

  Amazon Enlists Bond Market in Its Quest for Grocery Dominance

  Amazon Just Unveiled a Better Alternative to Vending Machines

  Chinese EVs Coming to U.S.?

  Target’s Profit, Com Sales Beat on Higher Customer Visits

  For Rajat Gupta, Returning Is a Hard Road

  Roger Nusbaum: Dalio Likes Gold

  Joshua Brown: My Middle Name Is Danger

  Cullen Roche: Why I’m Not Worried About Household Debt

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• Morning News: August 15, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 15th, 2017 at 7:24 am

  Why the U.S. Shouldn’t Start a Trade War With China

  How Nafta Changed U.S. Trade With Canada and Mexico

  Dudley Tells Skeptical Markets He Sees Fed Rate Hike

  Tallying the C.E.O. Desertion of Trump

  The Boom Is Booming and Home Depot Is Setting Records

  Why Would Buffett’s Berkshire Bulk Up on Credit Cards?

  3 Reasons Netflix Stock Isn’t Losing Half Its Value

  Nvidia’s Stock Recovers As Analysts Urge Patience In The AI Business

  How Elon Musk and Cheap Oil Doomed Push for Natural Gas Cars

  New Pandora Media CEO Good Match For Struggling Music Service

  Gates Makes Largest Donation Since 2000 With $4.6 Billion Pledge

  Costco Made $3.7 Million Selling ‘Tiffany’ Rings. Now It Must Pay $19 Million To The Real Tiffany.

  Michael Batnick: Only a Market of Stocks

  Ben Carlson: Your Brain on $

  Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday…FFFFFINTECH

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