Archive for November, 2017

• Morning News: November 28, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 28th, 2017 at 7:03 am

  Brexit Stress Lingers Even as U.K. Banks Pass Their Tests

  How the Fall of Finance Led to French Tech’s Rise

  Cyber Monday Hits New Record At $6.6 Billion, Over $1 Billion More Than 2016

  Right and Left React to the Turmoil at the Consumer Finance Watchdog

  U.S. Tax Cuts in 2018 Would Give GDP Temporary Boost, OECD Says

  Fed Nominee Powell, Once Hawkish, Now Champions Yellen’s Focus on Jobs

  Debate Rages Over FTC as Web Referee After Net Neutrality Gutted

  Musk: I Am Not Bitcoin’s Satoshi Nakamoto

  Pressured for Profit, Oil Majors Bet Big on Shale Technology

  OPEC to Back 9-Month Extension, Awaits Russia’s Commitment

  Wells Fargo’s Foreign Exchange Bankers Overcharged Tons of Customers

  SoftBank Is Said to Offer to Buy Uber Shares at a Steep Discount

  Cullen Roche: How to Manage an Asset Price Mania (Like Bitcoin) & Is the US Economy About to Boom?

  Roger Nusbaum: Bitcoin, To Infinity & Beyond!

  Ben Carlson: Expert Judgment or Lack Thereof

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• OPEC’s Moment of Truth
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 27th, 2017 at 12:34 pm

  Interesting article on the dynamics currently at work in the global oil market. OPEC reached a deal with Russia to cut supply. It’s working but Saudi Arabia is undergoing an internal revolution, and Venezuela is a mess.

  The producers’ efforts to clear the oil surplus are starting to pay off. They’ve drained excess inventories in developed nations this year by 183 million barrels, or more than half of the glut, which now stands at about 140 million barrels, according to OPEC data. That has revived London-traded crude futures, which sank below $45 a barrel this summer, to a two-year high of $64.65 on Nov. 7.

  That success goes some way to countering accusations that OPEC had lapsed from the dominant market force of the 1970s and 1980s into irrelevance. Although its 14 members still pump 40 percent of the world’s oil, their share has dwindled from the days when OPEC held the global economy in thrall.

  “People may have thought that OPEC was dead, but Saudi Minister Khalid Al-Falih has succeeded in building agreements and alliances within OPEC and non-OPEC, such as Russia, to restrain production,” said Luis Giusti, an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former CEO of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

• More on Amazon/Cerner
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 27th, 2017 at 10:11 am

  I expect we’ll get more info in the coming days, but here’s an overview:

  Amazon is expected to announce this week a major partnership with Cerner Corp. this week.

  Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon Web Services, plans to announce the collaboration at the company’s re:Invent conference this week, CNBC reports. Jassy is scheduled to deliver the conference’s keynote address on Wednesday.

  According to CNBC, Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud computing unit will work with Cerner and the North Kansas City company’s HealtheIntent product. Citing unnamed sources, the report said that AWS and Cerner are in the late stages of talks.

  The population health management product allows health care systems to analyze data to predict outcomes within a population. This can allow systems to step in earlier to improve patients’ health and to coordinate care. For example, a pilot program with Truman Medical Centers will use the platform to track patients with heart failure and diabetes and send automated alerts to care providers when intervention is necessary.

  A Cerner executive gave a presentation on HealtheIntent and the use of AWS’s storage and computing power with the product at last year’s re:Invent conference.

  A more extensive teaming of AWS and Cerner on population health could help both giants expand upon their efforts as health care providers turn to big data as a means of improving care and cutting costs. In July, CNBC reported that Amazon had created a special stealth team to focus on opportunities with electronic medical records and telemedicine. On the consumer side, The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that Amazon had received wholesale pharmacy licenses in at least a dozen states.

• Morning News: November 27, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 27th, 2017 at 7:00 am

  Bitcoin Guns for $10,000 as Cryptocurrency Mania Defies Skeptics

  Cyber Monday Caps Strong E-Commerce Holiday Sales Growth

  Mr. MiFID on Finance’s Low-Fee Future

  Un-Happy Anniversary – Our Take On Oil Markets Ahead Of OPEC’S Meeting

  U.K. Seeks to Remove Brexit Sting With Industrial Strategy

  Powell Facing Off at Senate Panel Wondering Whose Side Is He On

  Battle for Control of Consumer Agency Heads to Court

  Time Inc. Sells Itself to Meredith Corp., Backed by Koch Brothers

  Amazon, in Hunt for Lower Prices, Recruits Indian Merchants

  Exxon Mobil Chief Revamps Refining, Chemical Operations

  Walmart is Crushing Target

  Executives of Scandal-Hit Uber Travel the Globe to Reassure Regulators

  Jeff Miller: What Are the Chances for Tax Cuts?

  Ben Carlson: Expert Judgment or Lack Thereof

  Jeff Carter: The Iron Laws

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• Big Bang Theory Can’t Match Bitcoin
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 26th, 2017 at 2:37 pm

  In the preview for this week’s episode of The Big Bang Theory, Howard mentions that bitcoin is worth $5,000. Actually, it’s now near $9,000. Bitcoin has rallied so fast that it’s smashed past the show’s production schedule.

• The Efficiency of Point Spreads
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 26th, 2017 at 2:35 pm

  I’m enjoying a lazy Sunday watching football. I noticed something that might be of interest.

  The New England Patriots are 16.5 favorites against the Miami Dolphins. That’s the widest spread for any team all year.

  This is a reminder that point spreads are financial markets, just like what we see on weekdays. The oddsmakers don’t care who wins, they just want to make sure they have even money on both sides.

  And like financial markets, the betting markets are pretty efficient. In the long run, the favorites and the underdogs are roughly even against the spread.

  There is, however, a fairly minor exception and that’s games with very wide spreads, which brings us back to the Pats against the Dolphins.

  I looked up the numbers, and since 1978, there have been 58 games where the spread is 16.5 or more points. The favorite has won 54 times and lost just four. (If you’re curious, in 54 games, the favorites were playing at home.)

  However, against the spread, the favorite has only covered 20 times, while failing to cover 35 times. Three games were pushes. That’s an unusually wide margin. Bear in mind, of course, that these games don’t come up very often, a little more than once a year.

  But it underscores an important point with markets and that’s that they have a tough time with extreme events. It seems that there’s a group of people, probably pretty small, that simply likes to take a side for the fun of it, and that slightly skews the results.

  Update: Pats won by 18 (35-17).

• Morning News: November 24, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 24th, 2017 at 7:17 am

  German Business Optimism Climbs to Record as Economy Booms

  Net Neutrality Explained: What It Means (and Why It Matters)

  Russia-OPEC Agree on Framework to Extend Oil Cuts

  Oil Heads for Best Weekly Gain in Month on Keystone Disruption

  Black Friday 2017: Your Best Bargain Might Be a TV

  Uber’s Cover-Up of Its Massive Data Breach May Lead to E.U. Investigations

  Mitsubishi Materials Adds to Japan Inc.’s Quality Problems

  Tesla’s Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries

  A Tesla Too Pricey? E-Bikes Offer Entry-Level Electric Transportation

  A Power Plant Is Burning H&M Clothes Instead of Coal

  Uber, Yandex Ride Services Can Merge in Russia, Regulator FAS Rules

  Clariant Snubs Review Demand as Showdown With White Tale Looms

  Why Tobacco Companies Are Paying to Tell You Smoking Kills

  Howard Lindzon: Thank You Markets!

  Mark Hines: Will Oil Hit $70 Soon?

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• Morning News: November 23, 2017
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 23rd, 2017 at 6:35 am

  China War on Online Loans Makes Waves in New York

  Euro-Area Growth Accelerates on Path to Decade-Best Performance

  Britain to Hike Levy on Diesel Cars

  Black Friday Is Eating Itself (Even in Britain)

  FCC Plan to Roll Back Net Neutrality Worries Small Businesses

  Bitcoin Breaks Through $8,000: Is It Still Time To Buy?

  Elon Musk’s Giant Battery Set for Testing in the Australian Outback

  Qualcomm: Cut And Thrust

  Uber’s Messy Data Breach Collides With Launch of SoftBank Deal

  Millennials’ Lust for Makeup is the Lipstick on the Retail Pig

  `Junk’ Mines the Milken Era for Truths that Resonate Now

  Lyft Raises Another $500 Million in Additional Round of Funding

  Cullen Roche: What’s the Yield Curve Really Telling Us? and When Tail Risk Isn’t Tail Risk

  Joshua Brown: The Year of Living Dangerously

  Roger Nusbaum: A Financial Advisor Has Got to Know His Limitations

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• Amazon’s Cloud Unit to Partner with Cerner
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2017 at 12:45 pm

  Amazon’s cloud unit to partner with Cerner: Sources from CNBC.

  From CNBC:

  Amazon’s cloud business, in its march toward $20 billion in annual revenue, has nabbed top clients in areas ranging from energy and technology to financial services and government.

  Heading into its annual re:Invent conference in Las Vegas next week, Amazon Web Services has found a partner to help the company crack a massive industry that’s been slower to adopt the cloud: health care.

  As part of his keynote at re:Invent, AWS CEO Andy Jassy is planning to announce that Amazon is teaming up with Cerner, one of the world’s largest health technology companies, to help health-care providers better use their data to make health predictions about patient populations, according to sources familiar with the matter.

  The sources, who asked not to be named because the discussions are still in the final stages, said the partnership is initially focused on Cerner’s so-called population health product — HealtheIntent — which enables hospitals to gather and analyze huge volumes of clinical data to improve patients’ health outcomes and lower treatment costs.

  Cerner did not provide a comment for this story, and AWS representatives didn’t respond to requests for comment.

  

• Axalta Confirms Acquisition Discussions with Nippon Paint
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2017 at 8:05 am

  Press release:

  “Axalta today confirmed that it is engaged in discussions with Nippon Paint regarding a potential acquisition of Axalta. Axalta will pursue such a transaction only if its Board of Directors determines that it is in the best interest of Axalta to do so. There can be no assurances that a definitive agreement between the parties will be reached or on what terms.”