The Long End Rises

It’s early but the yield on the 10-year Treasury has been creeping up lately. Perhaps it’s due to tax reform. Perhaps it’s due to stronger economic growth. I don’t know.

Of course, every prior prediction for higher long-term rates has failed. Maybe this time someone will be right.

By the way, the NY Fed’s “Nowcast” currently predicts Q4 GDP growth of 4%. If that’s right, then…wow!.

I should add that forecasts from central bankers haven’t always been accurate.

Posted by on December 20th, 2017 at 11:39 am


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