Archive for May, 2019
-
CWS Market Review – May 17, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 17th, 2019 at 7:08 am”Patterns of price movement are not random. However, they’re close enough to random.” -Jim Simons
Before I get to this week’s issue of CWS Market Review, I want to say there will be no issue next week. I’m taking my traditional break ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.
But don’t worry! I’ve scheduled a free webinar for you on Wednesday, May 22 at 4 p.m. ET. I’ll be joined by John Schindler, a national-security expert. It should be a great discussion. We’ll cover all the goings-on on Wall Street and in the world. The webinar is completely free. You can register for it here.
Now let’s look at the stock market. Wall Street has been roughed up a bit lately thanks to escalating trade tensions between President Trump and China. I still doubt that this rhetoric can do much harm to the economy. Until now, the Trade War has been a lot of sound and fury signifying not much.
Plus, the worst may have passed. In fact, the S&P 500 is up over the last week, through Thursday, despite a nasty 2.4% drop on Monday. Now that earnings season has ended, I want to use this issue to look at some potential candidates for next year’s Buy List. Of course, we won’t make any changes to the Buy List until the end of the year, but this is a good time to look at some possible recruits.
Before we get to that, though, let’s look at some recent economic news.
We’ve Had 24 Drops of 5% in This Bull Market
The stock market’s brief hiccup was good for the relative performance of our Buy List. Since we focus on high-quality stocks, we often outperform when investors get nervous. As a very general rule, our Buy List mostly keeps up with the market during bull runs. But during bears, we tend to fall much less. That’s where most of the outperformance comes.
The S&P 500 went from an intra-day high of 2,954 on May 1 to an intra-day low of 2,801 on Monday, May 13. Charlie Bilello points out that since the current bull market started in March 2009, the stock market has had 24 separate downturns of 5% or more. All 23 of the previous ones have been turned around. I think #24 will be as well.
On Wednesday, the retail-sales report for April showed a decline of 0.2%. Taking out gasoline, the decline was 0.4%. This is often a barometer of consumer spending. What’s interesting is that this soft number comes after a very strong March. The increase for March was revised up to 1.7%.
Industrial production for April fell 0.5%. That was below expectations of a flat month. We’re now at the midpoint of Q2, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow report estimates that the economy will grow at a 1.2% rate for Q2. The New York Fed’s Nowcast is expecting 2.2%.
The yield curve has again inverted, but only partially. The six-month Treasury currently yields 2.43%, while the three-year Treasury yields 2.15%. That’s unusual, but it could be a bet on a one-and-done rate cut sometime later this year.
On Thursday, the jobless-claims report came in at 212,000. That’s a pretty good number. If we do see any weakness in the labor market, it will probably show up here first. For now, the economy continues to look good, but growth may slow down later this year.
Earnings Preview for Ross Stores and Hormel Foods
We have two earnings reports coming next week. On Thursday, May 23, Ross Stores and Hormel Foods are due to report earnings. Hormel will report before the open, while Ross will report after the close.
In March, Ross Stores (ROST) reported very good numbers for its fiscal Q4. The company made $1.20 per share. For context, the deep-discounter had given guidance of $1.09 to $1.14 per share. (Ross is notoriously conservative with its guidance.)
The key metric for Ross is same-store sales. For Q4, that was up 4%. Wall Street had been expecting 2.3%. As usual, the company gave weak guidance. Ross sees Q1 earnings of $1.05 to $1.11 per share. I had been expecting more. The stock is still below its high from late last year.
The CEO said, “While we hope to do better, we continue to take a prudent approach to forecasting our business for 2019. Although we remain favorably positioned as an off-price retailer, we face our own difficult sales and earnings comparisons, a very competitive retail landscape, and an uncertain macro-economic and political environment.”
For all of 2019, Ross sees earnings of $4.30 to $4.50 per share. The company also authorized a $2.55 billion share buyback. Ross raised its quarterly dividend by 13.3%. The payout increased from 22.5 cents to 25.5 cents per share. The company said it plans to open 100 new locations this year. Remember all the talk about the retail apocalypse? Ross is doing just fine.
Shares of Ross are currently a little bit above my Buy Below price. I want to see the earnings report before I make a change.
On February 21, Hormel Foods (HRL) said it made 44 cents per share for its first quarter. That matched Wall Street’s expectations. Sales rose 1% to $2.4 billion which was just below estimates. Operating margin came in at 13%.
Basically, the company had a solid quarter. They sold off their Muscle Milk business to Pepsi for $465 million. Importantly, Hormel reaffirmed its full-year 2019 outlook of $1.77 to $1.91 per share and sales guidance of $9.7 billion to $10.2 billion. The company said the Muscle Milk deal will add a few pennies to this year’s EPS. The current outlook doesn’t reflect the deal, but later on, Hormel will adjust for it.
The shares took a big hit during April, but seemed to have found support around $39 per share. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of 45 cents per share.
After that, our next earnings report will be on June 6 from JM Smucker (SJM). Shares of SJM are up 34.5% for us this year. On Thursday, the stock made a new 52-week high.
Early Buy List Candidates for 2020
Here are eleven stocks I’m keeping my eye on for 2020. Bear in mind that this is very early, and I’ll certainly change my mind over the next seven months.
3M (MMM)
Stepan (SCL)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Henry Schein (HSIC)
Silgan (SLGN)
United Technologies (UTX)
Expeditors Intl of Washington (EXPD)
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
Waste Management (WM)
Middleby (MIDD)
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)I’ll have more to say about the stocks I like as the year goes on.
Buy List Updates
I want to make a few adjustments to some of our Buy Below prices. Shares of AFLAC (AFL) have been acting well. The duck stock had another solid earnings report last month. The company recently raised its dividend for the 36th year in a row. The shares are currently going for about 12 to 13 times this year’s earnings estimate. On Thursday, the shares hit a new all-time high. I’m lifting my Buy Below on AFLAC to $54 per share.
Shares of Hershey (HSY) have been performing very well for us lately. The shares got a new pop after the earnings report a few weeks ago. And thanks to Hershey’s defensive nature, traders have helped the shares in the past few days. On Thursday, HSY touched a new all-time high. Since February 1, Hershey is up more than 28% for us.
The company also announced that it’s redesigning its famed chocolate bar. Instead of the Hershey logo, the new bars will have emojis. That’s the first design change since the bars first went on sale in 1900. Fortunately, the design change isn’t permanent. In any event, I’m raising my Buy Below on Hershey to $130 per share.
Shares of RPM International (RPM) recently fell for six days in a row. The shares got off to a slow start this year, but the last earnings report was encouraging. This week, I’m dropping my Buy Below to $61 per share to reflect the down draft. RPM has increased its dividend every year for the last 45 years.
Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) was our big dud this last earning season. They missed earnings and lowered guidance. In two days, the stock dropped 18%. The shares have started to stabilize around $58. I’m dropping my Buy Below on CTSH to $63 per share.
Barron’s reported that the GE/Danaher deal could be in jeopardy. The companies reached a deal where Danaher (DHR) would buy GE’s biopharma business for $20 billion. The problem is that some biopharma stocks have been reporting dismal results. This probably isn’t a dealbreaker, but it may be enough to renegotiate the price.
That’s all for now. There won’t be an issue next Friday. The following Monday, May 27, the stock market will be closed in honor of Memorial Day. Next week should be fairly quiet ahead of the three-day weekend. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes from the last Fed meeting. On Tuesday, the existing-home sales report comes out. Then on Friday, the durable goods report is released. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
– Eddy
-
Morning News: May 17, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 17th, 2019 at 7:04 amChina Downplays Chances for Trade Talks While U.S. Plays ‘Little Tricks’
How Xi’s Last-Minute Switch on U.S.-China Trade Deal Upended It
Trump’s Twin Attacks Against Huawei Leave U.S. Companies Reeling
Fed Officials Sound an Alarm, Worrying Weak Inflation Could Last
How to Prepare for the Next Recession: Automate the Rescue Plan
FBI Targets Johnson & Johnson, Siemens, GE, Philips in Brazil Graft Case
Airlines Face Scramble to Restore 737 MAX Flights Once Regulators Approve Fix
Walmart Sends Fresh Warning That Tariffs Will Hit U.S. Shoppers’ Pocketbooks
Baidu Stock Is Tumbling After Earnings Show First Loss Since 2005
Amazon Buys Stake in Deliveroo, Pitting It Against Uber
Luckin, an Unprofitable Chinese Rival to Starbucks, Seeks U.S. Money
Pinterest Posts Narrower Loss, but Falls Short of Wall St. Estimates
Joshua Brown: Why Bitcoin Just Doubled & How To Spend Your Marketing Dollars Wisely
Animal Spirits: Michael’s Fitness Pal
Ben Carlson: All The Jobs I Didn’t Get
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
Morning News: May 16, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 16th, 2019 at 7:16 amTrump’s Huawei Threat Is the Nuclear Option to Halt China’s Rise
Boom in Dodgy Wall Street Deals Points to Market Trouble Ahead
Goldman Fund Says Bond Market Has Gone Too Far, Yields Will Rise
White House Reassesses Auto Tariff as it Focuses on China Fight
Citigroup Hit Hardest as EU Fines Banks $1.2 Billion in FX Probe
F.A.A. Chief Defends Boeing Certification Process at House Hearing
Airbus CEO Says All Planemakers to Suffer from ‘Lose-Lose’ Trade War
California Says PG&E Power Lines Caused Camp Fire That Killed 85
Hershey’s is Changing the Look of its Candy Bar for the First Time in History
Nestle Revamp Advances with $10 Billion Sale of Skin Health Unit to Buyout Funds
Tesla Push to Boost Jobs in New York
Howard Lindzon: Voice, Voice, Voice and Gen-Z
Jeff Carter: My Friend Howard Goes Off-I Am Glad He Did
Ben Carlson: What Should I Do With My Inheritance?
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
Morning News: May 15, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 15th, 2019 at 7:11 amThe Global Economy Was Improving. Then the Fighting Resumed.
China’s Economy Lost Momentum Even Ahead of Trump’s New Tariffs
Trump’s Tariffs, Once Seen as Leverage, May Be Here to Stay
In China, Some Fear the End of ‘Chimerica’
Rising U.S. Oil Output Helps Fill Gap Left by Iran, Venezuela: IEA
Rise of Smaller Rivals Throws Up Fresh Challenge to Bitcoin
U.S. 2018 Births Fall to Lowest Level in 32 Years
Tencent Beats Estimates, Signaling the Worst Is Behind It
Startups Target Banks’ Small Business Customers in FX Payments Drive
You Can No Longer Buy a $35,000 Tesla Model 3 — the Price Just Went Up
Caesars, ESPN Forge Sports-Betting Partnership
Netflix Is Losing Some of Its Most Popular Shows, Thanks to AT&T
Nick Maggiulli: Losing More Than a Bet
Lawrence Hamtil: How Inflation Makes the ‘Value’ Factor a Sector Bet
Roger Nusbaum: Simple Vs Easy & Is Bitcoin Talebian?
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
Morning News: May 14, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 14th, 2019 at 7:14 amOil Rises as Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Attacks on Pump Stations
Modi Cut India’s Red Tape. Now He Hopes to Win Votes for His Work.
U.S. Readies New Tariffs as Trump Says He’ll Meet China’s Xi
Fed’s Williams Says Policymakers Need to Better Prepare for Lower Interest Rate World
Supreme Court Allows Antitrust Lawsuit Against Apple to Proceed
Israeli Firm Tied to Tool That Uses WhatsApp Flaw to Spy on Activists
Bayer Stock Continues Rout After $2 billion Award in Roundup Trial
Uber Blame Game Focuses on Morgan Stanley After Shares Drop
Members Only: U.S. Retailers Revamp Loyalty Schemes for Amazon Era
The $1.9 Trillion Fund Giant With a Crazy Idea About Investing
As Swine Fever Roils Asia, Hogs Are Culled and Dinner Plans Change
Nissan Flags Weakest Profit in 11 Years, Ghosn Woes, Bleak Sales Weigh
Ben Carlson: What Inning Are We In?
Michael Batnick: What Do You Know Now?
Joshua Brown: The Book That Changed My Life & Buyable VIX Spike
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
Morning News: May 13, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 13th, 2019 at 7:20 amPakistan to Accept $6 Billion Bailout From I.M.F.
Saudi Arabia Says Oil Tankers Attacked as Iran Tensions Rise
U.S.-China Trade Standoff May Be Initial Skirmish in Broader Economic War
Trump Trade Talks With China Head for Stalemate
Making America Carbon Neutral Could Cost $1 Trillion a Year
Morgan Stanley Says Rest of 2019 Might Turn Against U.S. Markets
As TV Industry’s $20 Billion Week Starts, Signs That Streaming Isn’t King Yet
Why Rewards for Loyal Spenders Are ‘a Honey Pot for Hackers’
Amazon Rolls Out Machines That Pack Orders and Replace Jobs
Impossible Foods Raises $300 Million with Investors Eager for Bite of Meatless Burgers
Bar Rises for Shale Takeovers as Chevron Bows Out of Anadarko Fight
Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday – Those Darn Tariffs
Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: Stalemate?
Jeff Carter: Stablecoins vs Derivatives
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
CWS Market Review – May 12, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 12th, 2019 at 7:08 am“The greatest ability in business is to get along with others and to influence their actions.” – John Hancock
Fourteen years ago, Twitter didn’t exist. Today it can help destroy trillions of dollars in global market cap. Bloomberg ran the numbers and found that President Trump’s 102-word tweet storm regarding Chinese tariffs sparked a selloff that totaled $1.36 trillion. The volatility index jumped 50% in just two days—and it all began with two tweets.
Does this mark the beginning of the end? Eh…I doubt it. Let’s remember that the bulls have had a good run this year, so it’s natural for the bears to strike back. First, some recent history. On April 26, the S&P 500 finished the session at an all-time high close. In other words, we made back everything we lost from the ugly market we had late last year. Then on Tuesday, April 30, the index closed out the month at 2,945.83, yet another all-time high close.
On Friday, May 3, the government reported that the unemployment rate fell to its lowest point in 50 years. That day, the S&P 500 closed at 2,945.64, a hair below its all-time high close from three days before. That can often be a bad omen, when the index fails to make a new high, even by a tiny bit.
After that, we got the president’s tweets, and then bad things started to happen. The S&P 500 fell four days in a row for a total loss of 2.54%. Of course, in the large scheme of things, that’s not a very big loss. Plus, the market gained another 0.37% on Friday.
So what’s going on? In this week’s issue, we’ll take a closer look at the president’s tweets and their impact on the market. We’ll also focus on our three Buy List earnings reports from this week. I’m also happy to say that our Buy List has been performing quite well versus the market in recent days. As usual, when investors get scared, they find solace in high-quality stocks, and that’s us. But first, let’s look at the amazing April jobs report.
The Lowest Jobless Rate in 50 Years
On Friday, May 3, the government reported that the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. That’s the lowest level since December 1969. If we look at the peacetime rate, then it’s the lowest in 70 years. For women, we now have the lowest jobless rate since 1953. The brief slowdown we saw earlier this year has clearly passed.
The jobs report said the U.S. economy created 263,000 net new jobs last month. If you recall, we had a pretty lousy jobs report just two months ago. The government said the economy created just 20,000 net new jobs in February. That report shocked a lot of people, and some even thought it might be the beginning of a recession. As it turns out, the February slowdown was a minor blip in the economy. The jobs gain for February has now been revised upward to a gain of 56,000 jobs.
There is a weak spot amid the good news, and that’s wage growth, which is still sluggish. Over the past year, average hourly earnings are up 3.2%. That’s better, but I’d like to see it higher. Higher wages means more revenue for businesses. Plus, there’s no evidence that inflation is heating up. On Friday, the government said that consumer prices rose 0.3% last month. That’s not much, and the “core” rate increased by 0.1%. That’s the third month in a row that core inflation is up by 0.1%. Over the last year, inflation is up 2%, while core inflation is up 2.1%. This is good news for investors. Importantly, it suggests that the Fed won’t do much for the rest of this year.
Now let’s look at the Twitter front of the trade war. The stock market got spooked this week by a pair of tweets President Trump posted last Sunday evening. In them, he threatened to escalate the brewing trade war with China. I need to stress that markets aren’t particularly worried about the tariffs the U.S. imposes. Rather, they’re concerned about retaliatory tariffs from China, or other countries, on U.S-made goods. Worst of all, this kerfuffle could spark an all-out trade war in which tariffs are constantly hiked by two sides that refuse to back down.
In the short term, tariffs on Chinese goods would give a quick boost to their U.S.-based competitors. Of course, those companies would quickly raise prices on consumers since the playing field has been emptied. But it gets tricky because trade is a nonlinear relationship. For example, tariffs would also hurt American companies that rely on suppliers based in China. The recent CPI report showed that inflation isn’t a problem, so consumers aren’t yet feeling the pinch of these policies.
I think the safe assumption is that the trade threats can only go so far. Both sides have too much to lose. President Trump has often mentioned that in negotiations, he likes to talk tough as an initial bid only to soften his stance as the discussions progress. That leaves the White House in a precarious situation where it wants to convince China that it’s serious while assuring financial markets that it’s open to bargaining.
There could be something to this. On Friday, the Dow staged a 450-point comeback after President Trump tweeted positive comments on trade negotiations. He even left the door open to tariffs being removed in the future. Surely, much of this (on both sides) is due to domestic political concerns rather than a coherent overview of trade policy.
As usual, I’ll skip the political angle and focus on what it means for us. Make no mistake, a trade war is bad for business. The recent tariffs aren’t good for stock investors. However, it’s in everyone’s interest to work together on these issues. That’s why the trade rhetoric will be much more heated than actual policy. The tariffs are a thorn in the side, not a dagger in the heart. The overall climate continues to be very good for investors.
On that note—though I’ll probably jinx it by even mentioning it—the market’s recent slide has been quite good for our Buy List. I should add that I mean that in a relative sense. We’re down, but not as much as everyone else. I sometimes hear investors criticize me for the “we suck less” argument, but in my view, these are the periods that really separate good investors from the pack.
Over the last week, our Buy List is down 0.65% compared to the S&P 500’s loss of 2.18%. That’s a lot for one week. Since April 22, the Buy List is up 1.61%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.91%. I should caution investors not to be overly frightened by short-term losses nor overly pleased by short-term gains. As always, we’re focused on the long term.
Through Friday, our Buy List is up 16.59% this year (that doesn’t include dividends). The S&P 500 is up 14.94%. Sixteen of our 25 stocks are beating the market. FactSet (FDS) is our biggest winner with a 40% YTD gain. Eight of our stocks are up more than 22% on the year.
At the beginning of 2018, we added Church & Dwight (CHD) as a new stock. Early on, it was a flop, but I’m glad we stuck with it. In a little over a year, CHD is up over 61%. In fact, most of our defensive stocks have been doing well lately, names like Smucker (SJM) and AFLAC (AFL). Hershey (HSY) has also been strong. This makes sense. A trade war won’t have much of an impact on the chocolate-bar biz. Now let’s look at some recent earnings news.
Three Buy List Earnings Reports this Week
We had our final three Buy List earnings reports of this earnings season. On Tuesday, Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $1.59 per share. That was nine cents better than expectations.
However, Broadridge had mixed news on their guidance. The company lowered its full-year revenue growth forecast from 3% to 5% down to about 1%. BR reiterated its full-year EPS growth of 9% to 13%. Last year, the company made $4.19 per share, so the current outlook works out to $4.57 to $4.73 per share. Through the first three quarters, Broadridge had earned $2.94 per share.
The shares pulled back a bit on Tuesday but stabilized and then rallied on Friday. The CEO said, “After a solid third quarter, Broadridge is very well-positioned to deliver strong full-year results.” I have to agree. In the last seven weeks, the stock is up 19%. This week, I’m lifting my Buy Below on Broadridge to $125 per share.
After the bell on Wednesday, Disney (DIS) reported Q1 earnings of $1.61 per share, three cents better than estimates. There’s been so much news about Disney recently that the earnings report almost seems anti-climatic.
Disney said it expects Disney+, the new streaming service, to be profitable by 2024. The Avengers movie is still crushing it at the box office, and the theme parks had a very good Q1. Net income for the parks totaled $1.5 billion for the first quarter.
Disney’s overall profits are down this year, but that’s because of the big movie hits it had in 2017. That’s the nature of the entertainment business. I really like the direction that Disney is taking. I’m raising my Buy Below on Disney to $140 per share.
While I like the news from the previous two companies, I wasn’t thrilled by the news from Becton, Dickinson (BDX). For Q2, the company reported earnings of $2.59 per share, which beat estimates by one penny per share.
Becton, Dickinson lowered its full-year revenue guidance of growth of 8.5% to 9.5% down to 8.0% to 9.0%. The company blamed the negative impact of currency exchange. BDX hasn’t changed its currency-neutral forecast of revenue growth of 4% to 6%. Becton sees full-year earnings ranging from $11.65 to $11.75. The company blames currency exchanges plus “recent regulatory and market pressures related to paclitaxel-coated devices.” The previous range was $12.05 to $12.15 per share.
The shares dropped over 3% at Thursday’s open. Fortunately, the stock didn’t fall as much as I had feared. Nevertheless, I’m lowering my Buy Below on Becton from $260 to $234 per share.
That concludes the first-quarter earnings season for our Buy List stocks. Coming up, we have three Buy List stocks with reporting quarters that ended in April. The three stocks are Hormel Foods (HRL), JM Smucker (SJM) and Ross Stores (ROST). Ross and Hormel are due to report on May 23, while Smucker is due to report on June 6.
That’s all for now. I expect to see more volatility in the market next week. We’re going to get a few key economic reports. On Wednesday, the retail-sales report for April is released. This will be one of our first data points to see how well Q2 is looking. Also on Wednesday, we’ll also see the report on industrial production. On Thursday, we’ll get the housing-starts report, plus another jobless-claims report. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
– Eddy
-
Morning News: May 10, 2019
Eddy Elfenbein, May 10th, 2019 at 7:03 amThe ECB Weighs a Profound Shift in Policy
Argentina Was Supposed to Be Over Populism. Economic Misery Could Bring It Back
U.S. Hikes Tariffs on $200B of Chinese Goods. China Says It Will Retaliate
A Short Seller Bets It All on a Spectacular Market Crash
The VC Who Engineered the 2017 Uber CEO Coup Just Got Very Rich
Banks Waking Up to Fintech Threat Throw Billions Into Digital
A $90 Billion Fee Pool Beckons as BofA Considers First Data Split
Occidental Petroleum Emerges With the Prize in a Takeover Fight
Facebook Rejects Co-Founder Call for Breakup, Senator Urges U.S. Antitrust Probe
AB InBev Files for Hong Kong IPO of Asia Business to Raise $5 Billion
Sam Adams Brewer to Buy Rival Dogfish Head in $300 Million Deal
Trash, the Library and a Worn, Brown Table: The 2019 College Essays on Money
Ben Carlson: Financial Superpowers
Roger Nusbaum: take Your Bitcoin and Head to Ecuador
Joshua Brown: Coming Up! & Whoever is Winning At the Moment Will Always Seem to Be Invincible.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter.
-
Q1 2019 Earnings Calendar
Eddy Elfenbein, May 9th, 2019 at 4:39 pmTwenty of our 25 Buy List stocks have reported their Q1 earnings this cycle. Here’s a list of reporting dates, Wall Street’s consensus estimates and actual reported results.
Eddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His