Lowest ISM Since October 2016

The ISM report usually comes out on the first business day of the month which is today. The ISM report for May was pretty weak, just 52.1. The expectation was for 53.0. This was the lowest ISM since October 2016.

We’re still not in the danger zone. Historically, recessions line up with ISMs below 44 or 45. But we are closer. Combined with a partially inverted yield curve, this is not good. It’s especially bad with all the heated trade rhetoric.

This morning, the 10-year yield dropped below 2.10%.

Posted by on June 3rd, 2019 at 10:30 am


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