Archive for June, 2019

• Morning News: June 7, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 7th, 2019 at 7:06 am

  As Mexico-U.S. Talks Progress, Markets Rise on Hopes a Deal Could Be Close

  Trump Says Fed’s Rate Increases Restrained Stock Market Growth

  Fed Begins Debate on Whether to Cut Rate as Soon as June

  CEOs Are Being Forced to Hedge Against the Chaos of a Full-On Trade War

  Europe’s 5G to Cost $62 Billion More if Chinese Vendors Banned

  Huawei, Shunned by U.S. Government, Is Welcomed in Russia

  How France’s Intrusive Demands Quashed the Fiat-Renault Deal

  The Car Industry Is Under Siege

  Germany’s Opel Town Shows Struggle for Europe to Plug In Electric Cars

  Google to Buy Data Analytics Company Despite New Antitrust Scrutiny

  Walmart Wants to Put Groceries Into Your Fridge

  Barnes & Noble Nearing Deal to Be Acquired by Elliott Management

  Joshua Brown: The New Way To Invest In Emerging Markets

  Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – Don’t Piss in My House

  Howard Lindzon: Joe Rogan and Naval Ravikant

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• Smucker Earns $2.08 per Share
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 6th, 2019 at 8:11 am

  The J. M. Smucker Company today announced results for the fourth quarter ended April 30, 2019, of its 2019 fiscal year. Financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year include the contribution from Ainsworth Pet Nutrition, LLC (“Ainsworth”), which was acquired on May 14, 2018, and reflect the divestiture of the Company’s U.S. baking business on August 31, 2018. All comparisons are to the fourth quarter of the prior fiscal year, unless otherwise noted.

  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  Net sales increased $120.8 million, or 7 percent, driven by the addition of Ainsworth and the Company’s growth brands.

  Net income per diluted share was $0.63, including a noncash impairment charge related to the Natural Foods business within the U.S. Retail Consumer Foods segment.

  Adjusted earnings per share was $2.08, an increase of 8 percent.

  For the full year, net income per diluted share was $4.52. Adjusted earnings per share was $8.29, an increase of 4 percent.

  Cash provided by operating activities was $274.2 million, compared to $314.4 million in the prior year.

  Free cash flow was $181.6 million in the quarter and $781.4 million for the full year.

  The Company provided its fiscal 2020 outlook, with expected net sales growth of 1 to 2 percent and adjusted earnings per share to range from $8.45 to $8.65.

  CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER REMARKS

  “We are pleased with the progress that we made during the year towards executing against our strategic plan, which supported fourth quarter adjusted earnings growth of 8 percent and full-year adjusted earnings growth of 4 percent. We successfully integrated Ainsworth, extending our leadership in pet foods, while our key growth brands delivered double-digit sales growth, demonstrating the power of our brands when supported by ongoing product innovation, including 1850® coffee and Jif Power Ups®. We continued to focus on productivity, allowing us to deliver on our cost reduction targets for the year, providing fuel for investment in future growth.”

  “As we transition to fiscal year 2020, our organization is committed to delivering on its growth imperatives to lead in the best categories, build brands consumers love, and be everywhere our consumers want us to be. Disciplined investment in our brands across pet food, coffee, and snacking leaves us well-positioned to drive sustainable financial growth and enhance shareholder value for the long term.”

• Morning News: June 6, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 6th, 2019 at 7:00 am

  Putin Aims to Revive the Economy With a Plan. And Pianos.

  Trump Threatens China with Tariffs on Further $300 Billion of Goods

  U.S., Mexico Extend Talks After Trump Claims Lack of Progress

  Tech Giants Amass a Lobbying Army for an Epic Washington Battle

  Huawei Digs In for a Drawn-Out Battle With Trump’s White House

  Ohio To Juárez And Back Again: Why Tariffs On Mexico Alarm The Auto Industry

  Fiat Walks Away From Renault Talks, Blaming French State

  Beyond Meat’s Home in the Meat Aisle Sparks Food Fight

  Amazon’s Drone Delivery Service is One Step Closer to Taking Flight

  Uber Copter’s $200 Flights Launch in NYC on July 9th

  ‘Do I Know You?’ And Other Spam Phone Calls We Can’t Get Rid Of

  Jeff Miller: Stock Exchange: Lemons, Lemonade Or Rip Van Winkle?

  Roger Nusbaum: Smoothing Out Your Portfolio’s Ride

  Ben Carlson: The Influencer Bubble

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• Morning News: June 5, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 5th, 2019 at 7:15 am

  Global Economy Cools Faster Than Expected as Trade Tensions Rise, World Bank Says

  Modern Monetary Theory’s Reluctant Poster Child: Japan

  Mexican Officials to Meet Pence in Last-Ditch Talks to Avert Tariffs

  First FedEx, Now Ford. China Clamps Down on U.S. Companies

  Mnuchin’s Deadlocked China Trade Talks Hang Over Pivotal G-20

  SEC Poised to Adopt Rules Aimed at Preventing Broker Conflicts, Boosting Disclosure

  Stocks Jump as Fed’s Powell Suggests Rates Could Come Down

  Confusing Options May Be Coming to Your 401(k). It Could Cost You.

  Short-Seller Pain That Began Monday Just Became a Bloodbath

  GameStop: The Knife Keeps On Falling

  How A Fight Over Beef Jerky Reveals Tensions Over SNAP In The Trump Era

  Woodford ‘Extremely Sorry’ About Cash Freeze in Somber YouTube Video

  Nick Maggiulli: The Goldilocks Zone of Personal Finance

  Cullen Roche: Is the Bond Market Predicting Recession?

  Howard Lindzon: This Is NOT A Coddling Accident!

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• Morning News: June 4, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 4th, 2019 at 7:56 am

  A Slower Economy. A Trade War. Now, China Faces Rising Food Prices.

  China Warns Citizens Against U.S. Travel, Citing ‘Frequent’ Shootings

  U.S. Firms Fret as China’s FedEx Probe, Planned Hit-List Heightens Trade Frictions

  Uber Under Tax Investigation by IRS, Foreign Authorities

  Antitrust Troubles Snowball for Tech Giants as Lawmakers Join In

  A Farewell for iTunes

  The Couple Who Feds Say Scammed Berkshire Hathaway for Millions

  The Buy-Side Trader Is Latest Job to Be Outsourced as Costs Rise

  Walmart Faces Major India Test Over Unit Flipkart’s Legal Spat With Startup

  Forget the Trade War. Citi Sees Brent at $78 Within Three Months

  SEC Probes Siemens, GE, Philips in Alleged China Medical Equipment Scheme

  Michael Batnick: Re-Kindled: Where Are the Customers’ Yachts & The Coddling of the American Investor

  Jeff Carter: The Two Tribes & Corporate Fascism

  Ben Carlson: Just the Facts About Market Corrections & Business Booms & Depressions: 1775-1943

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• The Buy List YTD
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 3rd, 2019 at 8:08 pm

  Through today, our Buy List is up 14.36% while the S&P 500 is up 9.48%. That doesn’t include dividends.

  Here’s a chart.

  

• Lowest ISM Since October 2016
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 3rd, 2019 at 10:30 am

  The ISM report usually comes out on the first business day of the month which is today. The ISM report for May was pretty weak, just 52.1. The expectation was for 53.0. This was the lowest ISM since October 2016.

  We’re still not in the danger zone. Historically, recessions line up with ISMs below 44 or 45. But we are closer. Combined with a partially inverted yield curve, this is not good. It’s especially bad with all the heated trade rhetoric.

  This morning, the 10-year yield dropped below 2.10%.

• Morning News: June 3, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, June 3rd, 2019 at 7:08 am

  These Are The Bad Times

  Reeling From Tariff Threat, Mexico Begins Immigration Talks in Washington

  Here Are the Most Interesting Items in China’s Trade White Paper

  Wall Street Warns of Mounting Recession Risk From Trade War

  Google and Amazon Are at the Center of a Storm Brewing Over Big Tech

  Blackstone Bets on E-Commerce With $18.7 Billion Logistics Deal

  World’s Longest Flight to Be Even Less Comfortable Than Expected

  Virgin America Vanishes Along With Branson’s U.S. Dream

  Can Tesla Ever Be More Than a Niche Automaker? Wall St. Increasingly Thinks No

  AT&T’s Streaming Ambitions Hit a Snag: The Cost of HBO

  Warren Buffett Charity Lunch Fetches Record $4.57 Million Winning Bid

  For the Chao Family, Deep Ties to the World’s 2 Largest Economies

  Roger Nusbaum: Markets Are In Trouble

  Joshua Brown: The Land That Time Forgot

  Jeff Miller: Is there Any Sense in the Conflicting Market Messages?

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