Archive for February, 2020

• The Best ADP in Nearly Five Years
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 5th, 2020 at 12:50 pm

  The S&P 500 is up again today and it’s close to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite is at a new high.

  This morning, the ADP payroll report was very strong. It was the best report in nearly five years (see below). We’ll get the official government jobs report on Friday.

  Also this morning, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 55.5. That’s the highest since August.

  We had five earnings reports after yesterday’s close. This morning, both Disney (DIS) and Fiserv (FISV) are down about 3% while AFLAC (AFL) and Globe Life (GL) are up a bit. Cerner (CERN) is up over 6% and it’s at a new high.

  We’ve also had new highs from Ansys (ANSS), Becton, Dickinson (BDX), Fiserv (FISV), Globe Life (GL), Moody’s (MCO) and Trex (TREX).

  

• Morning News: February 5, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 5th, 2020 at 7:05 am

  Markets Gain on Vaccine Reports; Almost 500 Dead

  Argentina’s ‘Little Trees’ Blossom As Forex Controls Fuel Black Market

  Traders in World’s Longest Working Day Plead for Shorter Hours

  Trump Touts Stock Market’s Record Run, But Who Benefits?

  Avocados Are the New Coal for Hedge Funds Chasing Sustainable Cash

  Disney Plus Racks Up 28.6 Million Subscribers

  Was Instagram the Steal of the Century?

  What Investors Learned From the First Peek Inside YouTube’s Financials

  Data Driving New Approaches to Transportation

  Ford Motor Misses Fourth-Quarter Earnings Estimate

  Nick Maggiulli: The Biggest Lie in Personal Finance

  Roger Nusbaum: Is Tesla The Greatest Short In History?

  Howard Lindzon: Tesla…When Will The Pain Stop for Shortsellers

  Michael Batnick: One More Thing

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• Or Maybe Not….
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 4th, 2020 at 10:59 pm

  At 8:09 p.m. ET, ICE sent out a press release to clarify things:

  Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading operator of global exchanges and clearing houses and provider of data and listings services, is sharing the following statement in response to news reports published today:

  ICE approached eBay to explore a range of potential opportunities that might create value for the shareholders of both companies. eBay has not engaged in a meaningful way. We are not in negotiations regarding the sale of all or part of eBay.

  Over ICE’s 20-year history, the company’s track record of creating shareholder value, both through organic growth and acquisitions, speaks for itself. ICE does look to explore potential opportunities that it expects will deliver enhanced shareholder value, and will continue to do so in the future.

  

• Five More Earnings Reports
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 4th, 2020 at 5:10 pm

  Lots of earnings. Let’s start with Fiserv (FISV). For Q4, the company made $1.13 per share. That was a penny below expectations.

  “2019 was a year of leadership and growth in which we took steps to transform an industry to better enable long-term, differentiated value for clients, associates and shareholders,” said Jeffery Yabuki, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fiserv. “We delivered strong financial results including our 34th consecutive year of double digit adjusted earnings per share growth.”

  Fiserv earned $4.00 for 2019. The company sees 2020 earnings of $4.86 to $5.02 per share.

  Cerner (CERN) made 75 cents per share for Q4. That beat by a penny. Cerner earned $2.68 per share for the year. For Q1, Cerner sees earnings of 69 to 71 cents per share. For 2020, they see $3.09 to $3.19 per share.

  Disney (DIS) had another blow-out quarter. The company has signed up 26.5 million Disney+ subscribers. For Q4, Disney made $1.53 per share. That was nine cents more than expectations.

  Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) doesn’t report until Thursday, but the shares dropped 7.5% today on news that it made an offer to buy eBay. The Wall Street Journal said the offer was worth more than $30 billion. As of now, there’s no deal.

  AFLAC (AFL) earned $1.03 per share which beat estimates by one penny. Currency exchange added two cents per share. AFLAC also increased its quarterly dividend from 27 cents to 28 cents per share. This is their 37th annual dividend increase in a row.

  For 2020, AFLAC is looking for earnings of $4.32 to $4.52 per share. That assumes an exchange rate of 109.07 yen to the dollar (which was the average for 2019).

  Globe Life (GL) had Q4 operating income of $1.70 per share. That was two cents below estimates. For 2020, GL expects operating earnings of $7.03 to $7.23 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $7.18 per share. The stock made a new 52-week high today.

• Morning News: February 4, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 4th, 2020 at 7:19 am

  Macau Shuts Casinos; Global Cases Rise to 20,600

  $9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food

  China’s Airlines Told Not to Axe Global Flights As Thousands Cut

  China, Desperate to Stop Coronavirus, Turns Neighbor Against Neighbor

  Electric Future: Britain to Ban New Petrol and Hybrid Cars From 2035

  BP Boosts Dividend As Profit Tops Forecast and CEO Bows Out

  IBM, Marriott and Mickey Mouse Take On Tech’s Favorite Law

  Visa Is Planning the Biggest Changes to Swipe Fees in a Decade

  Google Faces Privacy Probe in EU Over Location Tracking

  The Market Is Betting That Competitors Won’t Catch Up to Tesla

  Getting Americans Into Train Travel, With Leather Seats and Billions of Dollars

  Tropical Breezes, Pristine Beaches and a Domain Name to Die For

  Joshua Brown: “25-year-olds should not pay a 31.3x Shiller PE to buy their grandparent’s equities.”

  Jeff Carter: The Artificial Intelligence

  Ben Carlson: Talking Financial Fraud on The Compound

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• A June Rate Cut Is on the Table
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 3rd, 2020 at 1:05 pm

  How things have changed! Thanks to the coronavirus, a June Fed rate is a definite possibility.

  

  The U.S. stock market opened higher this morning, but the story in China was very different. The Chinese market got absolutely clobbered.

  Because of the lunar break, this was the first trading day in China in nearly two weeks. It was one of the worst losses in years. Nearly every stock fell, and more than 3,000 stocks fell by the daily maximum.

  Here in the U.S., things look better today. The markets are currently up after Friday’s 600-point drop in the Dow. We had a surprising economic report this morning. The ISM Manufacturing Report for January came in at 50.9. That’s much better than expected.

• Check Point Beat Earnings
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 3rd, 2020 at 9:34 am

  This morning, Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) reported Q4 earnings of $2.02 per share. That’s up from $1.68 one year ago. Check Point also beat estimates for $1.99 per share. Revenue rose 3% to $544 million, which beat estimates of $542.5 million.

  “We closed out the last decade with nearly two billion dollars in annual revenues and over one billion dollars in non-GAAP operating income. Over the last decade we introduced our security-as-a-service subscription model, which delivers the most advanced technologies in cyber. In 2019, subscription reached over six hundred million dollars in revenues and was driven by cloud, mobile and zero-day advanced threat prevention technologies,” said Gil Shwed, Founder and CEO of Check Point Software Technologies. “We began the new decade with the introduction of Infinity NEXT, the industry’s most comprehensive cyber security platform with over 60 security technologies that support over 50 types of assets including operating systems, cloud workloads, IoT devices, mobile devices and network of any type,” Shwed concluded.

  During Q4, Check Point bought back 2.9 million shares for $325 million. The company announced a $2 billion extension to the share buyback program. Check Point didn’t provide any guidance for 2020.

• Morning News: February 3, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 3rd, 2020 at 7:05 am

  China’s Worst Rout in Years Has 3,257 Stocks Falling by Daily Limit

  SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace.

  Gilead Gains; Drug Gets Human Trial in China for Coronavirus

  Oil Wavers as Coronavirus Hits Demand and OPEC+ Considers Deeper Cuts

  Super Bowl Ads Hyped Electric Cars. But Will Anyone Buy Them?

  Would Your Wages Rise Under ‘Medicare for All’?

  Boeing’s Woes Create Headwinds for U.S. Economy

  WeWork Names Real Estate Veteran Sandeep Mathrani As New CEO

  3 Reasons Amazon’s Market Cap Soared Above $1 Trillion After Its Blowout Quarter

  Behind Amazon’s HQ2 Fiasco: Jeff Bezos Was Jealous of Elon Musk

  Jeff Miller: Coronavirus – Cause for Analysis or Paralysis?

  Roger Nusbaum: The Coronavirus & Investment Process

  Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday…Pass the Masks and Do Not Cough Anywhere Near Me

  Michael Batnick: “I’ll Never Sell”

  Ben Carlson: The 5 Types of Retirement Savers & When Does the Federal Deficit Matter?

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