Archive for March, 2020

• Morning News: March 6, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 6th, 2020 at 7:01 am

  Coronavirus Wreaks Financial Havoc as Infections Near 100,000

  Bonds Extend Rally as Investors Retreat From Stocks

  Sovereign Bond Yield Collapse Shows the World Is in Crisis Mode

  It’s Time to Really Fret, Says Manager Who Beat 98% of Peers

  Why the Coronavirus Could Threaten the U.S. Economy Even More Than China’s

  The Fed is Already Behind the Curve as Goldman Says Firepower Could Be Half as Much as Usual

  Mortgage Rates Dip To Lowest Point On Record

  Tencent-Backed WeDoctor Invites Banks to Lead $1 Billion Hong Kong IPO

  Costco Crushed February Same-Store Sales. It Was the Coronavirus.

  Jamie Dimon’s Emergency Heart Surgery Puts Spotlight on JPMorgan’s Bench

  Tito’s Vodka: Please Don’t Use Our Booze as Coronavirus Hand Sanitizer

  U.A.W. Corruption Case Widens as Former Chief Is Charged

  Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – Corona Edition

  Michael Batnick: Don’t Catch a Falling Knife

  Ben Carlson: Advice Doesn’t Have to Be Complicated to Be Effective

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• Morning News: March 5, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 5th, 2020 at 7:27 am

  Global Economy Is Gripped by Rare Twin Supply-Demand Shock

  A Global Outbreak Is Fueling the Backlash to Globalization

  Larry Kudlow Says ‘We’re Not Going to Panic’ Over the Economy

  Dow Futures Tumble as U.S. Coronavirus Cases Increase, California Declares State of Emergency

  Fed ‘Beige Book’ Shows Business Worried About Coronavirus and the Election

  DealBook: Lloyd Blankfein Says He Knows Why the Market Is Moving

  OPEC Backs Extra 1.5 Million BPD Output Cut if Russia Joins In

  Airlines May Lose Up to $113B in Revenue – IATA

  British Airline Flybe Collapses as Coronavirus Deals Final Blow

  HP Rejects Xerox’s Hostile Takeover Offer, Calling Bid Too Low

  Nick Maggiulli: How Stocks Perform After the Fed Cuts Rates

  Ben Carlson: How Do We Get People to Save More For Retirement?

  Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: The Emergency Rate Cut & Today Was Weird

  Joshua Brown: What You Should Buy In A Recession

  Jeff Carter: Rearranging Distribution

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• Morning News: March 4, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 4th, 2020 at 7:05 am

  Global Health Crisis 1, Economic Policymakers 0

  The Fed Has No Tools for an Outbreak. Here’s Why It Acted Anyway.

  Fed Makes Emergency Rate Cut, but Markets Continue Tumbling

  Bonds Hold Gains After Fed’s Surprise Rate Cut

  Treasury 10-Year Yield Sets Record Below 1% on Virus Fears

  Trump Balks at Stimulus, Saying Economy Is Immune to Coronavirus

  A Hedge Fund Pioneer Bets on Higher Rates, Recovery In Stocks

  A U.S. Steel Mill Found a Savior in China. Rivals See a Trojan Horse

  What Happens in Vegas if No One Stays in Vegas?

  How An Ill-Timed Bet On A U.S. Oil Refinery Cost ICBCS Millions

  SoftBank-Backed CloudMinds Blocked From Exporting U.S. Tech to China

  U.S. Surges Ahead as World’s Top Hotspot for the Fabulously Rich

  Ben Carlson: Questions Every Investor Needs To Ask Themselves Right Now

  Nick Maggiulli: 3 Reasons Why You Should Invest in Bonds

  Joshua Brown: They Did It: The First Emergency Interest Rate Cut Since 2008, Why the Rate Cut “Didn’t Work” & We Might Need a Retest

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• Ross Stores Beats Earnings and Hikes Dividend
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 3rd, 2020 at 5:41 pm

  Ross Stores (ROST) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $1.28 per share. This is for the months of November, December and January. Previously, Ross had given us a range of $1.20 to $1.25 per share.

  Same-store sales rose by 4%. Ross has been expecting growth of 1% to 2%. For the year, Ross made $4.60 per share. That’s up from $4.26 in 2018. Annual sales rose 7% to $16.0 billion

  Barbara Rentler, Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We delivered strong sales and earnings growth for both the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Our ongoing ability to offer compelling bargains to our customers enabled us to achieve these results despite our own challenging multi-year comparisons and a fiercely competitive holiday season.”

  Ms. Rentler continued, “Fourth quarter operating margin of 13.3% was slightly better than expected, driven by higher merchandise margin.”

  During Q4, Ross bought back 2.7 million shares for $309 million. For the year, they bought back 12.3 million shares for $1.275 billion. There’s $1.275 billion left in the current authorization

  Ross is also raising its quarterly dividend 12%, from 25.5 cents to 28.5 cents per share. The new dividend is payable on March 31 to stockholders of record as of March 17. Ross has raised its dividend every year since 1994.

  Now for guidance:

  For the 52 weeks ending January 30, 2021, the Company is planning same store sales to grow 1% to 2% and earnings per share of $4.67 to $4.88. We also plan to open about 100 stores this year, consisting of approximately 75 Ross Dress for Less and 25 dd’s DISCOUNTS locations.

  For the first quarter ending May 2, 2020, comparable store sales are forecast to be up 1% to 2% with earnings per share projected to be $1.16 to $1.21 versus $1.15 for the first quarter ended May 4, 2019.

  Wall Street had been expecting $1.25 per share for Q1 and $5.01 per share for the year. The shares are down about 3% after hours.

• The Fed Cuts by 0.50%
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 3rd, 2020 at 11:06 am

  Me a few days ago.

  I think there's a good chance of a non-meeting rate cut from the Fed.

  Soon.

  — Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) February 27, 2020

  And today.

  Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

  The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

  The market rallied. For a bit.

  

• Morning News: March 3, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 3rd, 2020 at 7:01 am

  G-7 to Hold Emergency Call on How to Lift Economy From Virus Threat

  Saudis Renew Push for Output Cuts as Coronavirus Weakens Oil Business

  Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

  Could the Coronavirus Cause a Recession (and How)?

  Is Fiscal Stimulus the Answer to Preventing a Coronavirus Recession?

  DealBook: Capitalists Make Their Case Against Sanders

  Thermo to Buy Qiagen for $10 Billion in 2020’s Top Health Deal

  SoftBank CEO Tells U.S. Investors He’ll Be More Careful

  Amazon Adds Warehouse Network Closer to Cities to Speed Up Same-Day Delivery

  Xerox, HP Blame Each Other As Takeover Battle Heats Up

  Waymo Brings In $2.25 Billion from Outside Investors, Alphabet

  Michael Batnick: Volatility Will Continue

  Jeff Carter: The Future of Work Is Automated

  Roger Nusbaum: This Past Week As A Micro Example Of Sequence Of Return Risk

  Ben Carlson: Talk Your Book: Investing in Commodities, What Happens to Stocks After a Big Down Month?

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• Morning News: March 2, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 2nd, 2020 at 7:12 am

  China Inc Thinks Outside the Box as Coronavirus Keeps Consumers at Home

  Virus Pushes Global Economy Toward First Contraction Since 2009

  Coronavirus Expected to Hurt U.S. Earnings Harder and Longer

  Wall Street Has Lost Its Nerve. What Will It Take to Get It Back?

  How to Fight That Sinking Feeling

  JPMorgan Sees a $1.2 Trillion Reason to Nix a U.S. Yield Rebound

  Think-Tank Report on Uighur Labor in China Lists Global Brands

  Where Is Jack Dorsey? Not in the Room as His Twitter Future Debated

  Intel’s Culture Needed Fixing. Its C.E.O. Is Shaking Things Up.

  Nokia Replaces CEO with Fortum Boss Lundmark to Revive 5G Business

  Beyond Meat Shares Plummet Despite Revenue Tripling Year Over Year

  Boeing’s Other Headache Is Its Joint Venture With Embraer

  Joshua Brown: Reasons to Sell, Updated

  Howard Lindzon: Pizza Over Panic

  Jeff Miller: Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?

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