Making My Own Dice Baseball Game

The idea of creating simulation baseball games based on playing dice is an old one. There are some versions that date from the 19th century. There are many different versions currently on the market. The basic idea is that the outcome of every plate appearance is determined by a roll of dice.

I wanted to try my hand and devise my own version.

My goal was two-fold. I wanted to create a dice baseball game that’s reasonably accurate to real baseball but also easy to play.

There are games on the market that are mind-numbingly complex, and in my opinion, not very fun. YouTube has some videos of people playing these games, and you’d think it’s someone doing their taxes. I didn’t want that.

My first goal was to use the “craps” version of dice. By that, I mean you simply throw two dice and add the results together. Just like craps. Other games are based on certain dice combinations. For example, a 1 and a 4 means this or a 2 and a 5 means that. That’s another thing I didn’t want.

I wanted something easy. Roll dice and boom, see the play. No charts or forms. Nothing to look up and no extra dice.

I also wanted a higher number to mean a better the result. That makes the game simple and intuitive.

With that being said, here’s my version. This is the outcome for each roll of the dice.

Dice Roll Outcome
2 Walk
3 Walk
4 GDP
5 Pop Up
6 Strikeout
7 Ground Out
8 Sac Fly
9 Single
10 Single+
11 Double
12 Home Run

Now for some explanation. The Sac Fly is only in play when there’s a runner on third with less than two outs. The other runners do not advance. If no one’s on third, then it’s a regular deep fly.

The GDP is only a double play when there’s a man on first with less than two outs. The other runners advance. If no one’s on first, then it’s a regular ground out and the other runners do not advance.

With the regular single, the runners on base advance one base. With the single-plus, runners on base advance two bases. With a double, runners on base advance two bases.

You may have noticed a few quirks in my version. For example, there are no triples. Sorry, but they’re just too rare in modern baseball.

I also didn’t have any sac bunts. Those don’t happen very often in real baseball and when they do, it’s usually the pitcher in the batter’s box. There are also no errors, and I didn’t include stolen bases. If you want to add them, knock yourself out.

Now for some basic stats. Rolling two six-sided dice gives you 36 different outcomes. Here are the probabilities for each roll:

Die Roll Odds
2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36

Using that, we can see that my rules produce an OBA of 0.361 (or 13/36), a batting average of 0.303 (or 10/33) and a slugging percentage of 0.455 (or 15/33). The OPS comes to 0.816. That’s higher than the average in real baseball but I wanted to make my game a little offensive heavy.

Those numbers aren’t exactly right because we still need to adjust for Sac Flies. Under baseball’s rules, a SF counts as a plate appearance but not an at bat.

How do we calculate the expected number of Sac Flies? Thankfully, my nephew knows some computer programming and we ran a simulated 1,000,000 innings. Based on that, a SF comes along once in every 113 plate appearances. That boosts our batting average to 0.306. On-base stays the same, but slugging percentage rises to 0.460. The OPS increases to 0.821.

We found that my rules produce an average of 5.07 runs per nine innings. That’s about 8% higher than the average of the last 30 years. As a general rule, my version gets more people on base but doesn’t move them across the basepaths as much.

If you’re curious, the odds of a pitcher throwing a no-hitter are one in every 17,109 while a perfect game would be one in 179,273. Since 1876, there have been about 232,000 games played.

Extra

A few years ago, “The Riddler” at FiveThirtyEight once ran a contest on devising a dice baseball game. Here’s the winning submission.

Here’s a variant I came up with that’s a little closer to actual baseball. Personally, I don’t like the erratic jumble of results.

Die Roll Outcome
2 Strikeout
3 Single+
4 GDP
5 Sac Fly
6 Fly Out
7 Strikeout
8 Ground Out
9 Walk
10 Single
11 Double
12 Home Run

You can get more accurate by getting more complicated, but I think my version is best combination of simplicity and accuracy.

Posted by on June 13th, 2020 at 4:26 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.