Archive for March, 2021

• Jobless Claims Hit Post-Pandemic Low
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2021 at 12:13 pm

  The stock market is down again today. If we close lower, this will be our third daily loss in a row, and four down days in the last five. Energy, in particular, has been weak lately.

  The S&P 500 also broke below its 50 day-moving average. If you recall, the index had toyed with the 50-day moving average a few days ago. We bounced off the 50-DMA and had a five-day winning streak. We’ve now given that back.

  We had two key economic reports this morning. First up, Q4 GDP growth was revised up to 4.3%. GDP is still down 2.4% from a year ago.

  The other news is that the jobless-claims report came in at 684,000. As odd as it sounds, that’s a post-pandemic low. Even though it’s a new low, it’s still higher than the highest peak from 12 years ago.

• Morning News: March 25, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2021 at 7:06 am

  Suez Canal Choked for Third Day as Elite Team Tackles Stuck Ship

  A Vaccine Passport Is the New Golden Ticket as the World Reopens

  Chinese Tech Stocks Slump as U.S. SEC Begins Rollout of Law Aimed at Delisting

  Bitcoin Slips in Another Sign That Retail Trader Mania Is Fading

  Top Belgian Soccer Team Said to Mull Shelving IPO on Weak Demand

  If the Economy Overheats, How Will We Know?

  Don’t Panic When the Market Hits New Highs

  Small Businesses Can Now Borrow Up to $500,000 Through A Government Disaster Loan Program

  Yellen Supports Banks’ Share Buybacks. Sen. Warren Wants BlackRock Designated Too Big to Fail

  Biden May Be the Most Pro-Labor President Ever; That May Not Save Unions

  Amazon Walks a Political Tightrope in Its Union Fight

  After H&M, Nike Feels Chinese Social Media Heat Over Xinjiang

  Buy This Column on the Blockchain!

  In 2020 the Ultra-Rich Got Richer. Now They’re Bracing for the Backlash

  Michael Batnick: The Worst Type of Sell-Off

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• Video on Amazon’s Rise
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2021 at 1:57 pm

• Morning News: March 24, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2021 at 7:07 am

  Suez Canal Blocked After Container Ship Gets Stuck

  U.S. Thirst for Russian Oil Hits Record High Despite Tough Talk

  Unusual Leap in Gas Prices Puts $3 a Gallon in Sight

  Powell and Yellen’s Game Plan is Evocative of the World War II Playbook. Here’s What Happened Then

  Biden’s Likely Tax Wins Are Personal-Rate Hikes, Audits of Rich

  Organizing Gravediggers, Cereal Makers and, Maybe, Amazon Employees

  Tesla Can Now Be Bought for Bitcoin, Elon Musk Says

  The End of Tesla’s Dominance May Be Closer Than It Appears

  China’s Didi Leans Towards New York for IPO, Eyes Valuation of at Least $100 Billion

  Disney Delays ‘Black Widow’ Debut, Adds Streaming Option in Summer Movie Shuffle

  With Fewer Ads on Streaming, Brands Make More Movies

  Joshua Brown: The Easy Money Has Already Been Made

  Ben Carlson: A Look Back at the Corona Crash One Year Later

  Nick Maggiulli: Started From the Bottom

  Howard Lindzon: Sam Jones, Co-Founder of OOOOO, Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss His Radical Social Commerce App and the Business of Live Streaming (EP.140)

  Michael Batnick: The Agony & The Ecstasy, The Easy Money Was Never Made & Animal Spirits: An Affordability Crisis

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• Powell Warns
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2021 at 11:05 am

  

  Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns Of Long Road Ahead To Recover Millions Of Lost Jobs

  Powell Warns of Dire Consequences of Doing ‘Too Little’ To Boost Economy

  Fed’s Powell Warns U.S. Economy ‘Long Way From A Full Recovery’

  Fed Chair Powell Warns Pandemic Downturn Could Widen Inequalities

  Powell Warns of U.S. Economy Risk With Pandemic at Deadliest Yet

  Bitcoin Price Drops After Jerome Powell Warns Public of Volatile Crypto

  Powell Warns of Weak Recovery Without Enough Government Aid

  Jay Powell Warns on US Economy Despite Good News On A Vaccine

  Jay Powell Warns Recovery Will Suffer Without Stimulus

  Powell Warns of ‘Significant Uncertainty’ About the Recovery and Says Small Businesses Are at Risk

  Powell Warns That Long Downturn Would Mean Severe Damage

  Fed’s Powell Warns of ‘Very Challenging’ Few Months Ahead

  Fed Chair Powell Warns Of ‘Exuberant’ Spending And Price Spikes After Pandemic But Isn’t Worried About Long-Term Inflation

  Fed Chair Powell Warns of Prolonged U.S. Recession After Coronavirus

  Powell Warns of Severe, Ongoing Risks to the Economy Hours Before Trump Ends Stimulus Negotiations Until After Election

  Fed Chair Powell Warns of Economic Recovery “Slog”

  Fed’s Powell Warns of a ‘Weak’ US Economic Recovery if More Stimulus Isn’t Enacted

  Powell Warns of a Possible Sustained Recession from Pandemic

• The Bottom, One Year On
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2021 at 10:47 am

  One year ago today, the S&P 500 reached its closing low. The index shed one-third of its value in just 22 trading days.

  The closing low was 2,237.40. During the day, the index got as low as 2,191.86.

  Here’s some mathery. Measuring from the intra-day low, over the next three days, the S&P 500 gained 19.993%. The index is up more than 70% from last year’s low.

  The big news one year ago today was that the Fed announced unlimited asset purchases.

  The Federal Reserve said Monday it will launch a barrage of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently amid the coronavirus crisis.

  Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

  That represents a potentially new chapter in the Fed’s “money printing” as it commits to keep expanding its balance sheet as necessary, rather than a commitment to a set amount.

  The Fed also will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds. The move comes in a space that has seen considerable turmoil since the crisis has intensified and market liquidity has been sapped.

  The stock market crashed and roared back. Here’s another way of looking at the market (data may be incomplete).

  

• Morning News: March 23, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2021 at 7:02 am

  Lebanon’s Financial Collapse Hits Where It Hurts: The Grocery Store

  Chip Shortage Turns Repair of Japan Factory Into National Effort

  Treasury Yields Fall Following Fed Chair Powell’s Comments on the Economy

  Biden Team Prepares $3 Trillion in New Spending for the Economy

  The U.S. Unemployment System Is Plagued by $63 Billion in Fraud and Dysfunction

  China’s Baidu Closes Flat on Debut as Investors Wary of Fundraising Spree in City

  From Pet Food to Video Games: Inside Ryan Cohen’s GameStop Obsession

  Jack Dorsey NFT Sale Of First-Ever Tweet Secures $2.5M Bid On Auction’s Expiry

  Billionaire’s Drab Clothing Firm Becomes a Sportswear Sensation

  The Wealth Gains That Made 2020 a Banner Year for the Richest 1%

  Goldman CEO Addresses Junior Bankers’ Complaints After Survey Goes Viral

  Ben Carlson: Inflation Matters More For the Stock Market Than Interest Rates

  Michael Batnick: Are Min-Vol Strategies Just Consumer Staples in Disguise?

  Jeff Carter: Silence Isn’t Always Golden

  Joshua Brown: What’s Changed for Now and What’s Changed Forever

  Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday – All New Is Good News and NFT Mania Enters Public Markets

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• Reasons to Be Bullish for Ross Stores
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 22nd, 2021 at 12:23 pm

  Last month, Barron’s called Ross Stores (ROST) a “unique bargain.” The magazine had more good things to say about the off-price retailer.

  The last earnings report wasn’t so hot since Ross is heavily exposed to California and the Golden State’s stricter regulations.

  But there is reason for optimism. For one, the stimulus checks will be a big boost for Ross’s core shoppers. Barron’s quotes analyst Paul Trussell:

  The desire for refreshed wardrobes when the economy reopens should help Ross, he argues. “In addition, we are bullish on the medium- to longer-term market share potential of the off-price group, and we think Ross will be a key beneficiary of elevated discretionary demand once consumers start spending their record savings accumulated during the pandemic.”

  Trussell notes that fellow off-price retailer Burlington Stores (BURL) delivered a strong quarter when it reported in early March, and while TJX Cos. (TJX), like Ross, was more downbeat in its earnings, that company pointed to improving quarter-to-date trends on its call. The success of peers bodes well for Ross, he argues, as California lifts restrictions and more customers are vaccinated.

  He thinks that Ross’s next report, due out in May, will be a catalyst for the shares as “the company will beat on both the top- and bottom-line, showcasing the strength and resilience of the off-price model.”

  

• Canadian Pacific Goes After Kansas City Southern
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 22nd, 2021 at 11:13 am

  The stock market is having a good morning, and it’s tech stocks that are doing the best. The S&P 500 is still not far from its all-time high.

  The big news this weekend is that Canadian Pacific (CP) is offering $275 per share for Kansas City Southern (KSU). That’s a 23% premium, which is a hefty offer. KSU is up this morning, but only by about 12%. That reflects some concerns over whether the deal will go through. The deal is in cash and stock and works out to $29 billion.

  Today’s existing-home sales report dropped by 6.6% compared with January but was still up over 9% compared with last February. The big news is that housing inventory is low. I mean, really low.

  Despite being on the cusp of the historically busy spring housing market, homeowners are not listing their properties for sale at the pace they normally would at this time of year. The supply of homes for sale fell 29.5% year over year, the largest annual decline ever, to 1.03 million homes.

  At the current sales pace, it would take two months to exhaust this supply. One year ago, there was a three-month supply, which is also considered low.

  The Turkey ETF (TUR) is down close to 20% today. The markets are reeling after Erdogan fired his third central bank head in two years. He had been hiking rates in order to defend the lira. Now that’s undone. The lira is getting wrecked in today’s trading.

• Morning News: March 22, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 22nd, 2021 at 7:05 am

  Turkey Shock Spooks Stocks

  Saudi Oil Giant Aramco Reports 44% Profit Slump In 2020 Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

  Think Covid’s Messed Up Your Travel Plans? Try Getting Into China.

  U.S. Senators Press Biden to Set End Date for Gas-Powered Car Sales

  Sustainability-Linked Bond Market to Swell Up to $150 Billion

  Recast as ‘Stimmies,’ Federal Relief Checks Drive a Stock Buying Spree

  Federal Reserve’s Digital Dollar Momentum Worries Wall Street

  Summers Sees ‘Least Responsible’ Fiscal Policy in 40 Years

  CP Rail’s CEO Makes the $25 Billion Deal His Mentor Wouldn’t

  Beeple Says NFT Art Is ‘Absolutely’ In A Bubble After Making $69M In Such A Sale

  Foods From Afar Hope to Catch the Eye of American Shoppers

  Marketers Plan Giveaways for Covid-19 Vaccine Recipients

  Blackstone Rolls the Dice with $6.2 billion Move on Australia’s Crown Resorts

  Michael Batnick: The Economy is Going to Boom & Animal Spirits: The Case for Emerging Markets

  Ben Carlson: How Could You Be Bearish on the Economy Right Now? & What If Housing Prices Aren’t As High As They Appear?

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